Numerical Simulation of Baroclinic Jovian Vortices

We examine the evolution of baroclinic vortices in a time-dependent, nonlinear numerical model of a Jovian atmosphere. The model uses a normal-mode expansion in the vertical, using the barotropic and first two baroclinic modes. Results for the stability of baroclinic vortices on an f plane in the absence of a mean zonal flow are similar to results of Earth vortex models, although the presence of a fluid interior on the Jovian planets shifts the stability boundaries to smaller length scales. The presence of a barotropic mean zonal flow in the interior stabilizes vortices against instability and significantly modifies the finite amplitude form of baroclinic instabilities. The effect of a zonal flow on a form of barotropic instability produces periodic oscillations in the latitude and longitude of the vortex as observed at the level of the cloud tops. This instability may explain some, but not all, observations of longitudinal oscillations of vortices on the outer planets. Oscillations in aspect ratio and orientation of stable vortices in a zonal shear flow are observed in this baroclinic model, as in simpler twodimensional models. Such oscillations are also observed in the atmospheres of Jupiter and Neptune. The meridional propagation and decay of vortices on a β plane is inhibited by the presence of a mean zonal flow. The direction of propagation of a vortex relative to the mean zonal flow depends upon the sign of the meridional potential vorticity gradient; combined with observations of vortex drift rates, this may provide a constraint on model assumption for the flow in the deep interior of the Jovian planets

Reducing Global Environmental Uncertainties in Reports of Tropical Forest Carbon Fluxes to REDD+ and the Paris Agreement Global Stocktake

The magnitude of net carbon dioxide emissions resulting from global forest carbon change, and hence the contribution of forests to global climate change, is highly uncertain, owing to the lack of direct measurement by Earth observation and ground data collection. This paper uses a new method to evaluate this uncertainty with greater precision than before. Sources of uncertainty are divided into conceptualization and measurement categories and distributed between the spatial, vertical and temporal dimensions of Earth observation. The method is applied to Forest Reference Emission Level (FREL) reports and National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGGIs) submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 12 countries containing half of tropical forest area. The two sets of estimates are typical of those to be submitted to the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) mechanism of the UNFCCC and the 2023 Global Stocktake of its Paris Agreement, respectively. Assembling the Uncertainty Fingerprint of each estimate shows that Uncertainty Scores are between 10 and 14 for the NGGIs and 5 and 10 for the FREL reports, and so both exceed the threshold of 2 when it is advisable to evaluate uncertainty by standard statistical methods. Conceptualization uncertainties account for 60% of all uncertainties in the NGGIs and 47% in the FREL reports, e.g., there is incomplete coverage of forest carbon fluxes, and limited disaggregation of fluxes between different ecosystem types and forest carbon pools. Of the measurement uncertainties, all FREL reports base forest area estimates on at least medium resolution satellite data, compared with only 3 NGGIs; after REDD+ Readiness schemes, mean area mapping frequency has fallen to 2.3 years in Latin America and 3.0 years in Asia, but only 8.3 years in Africa; and carbon density estimates are based on national forest inventory data in all FREL reports but only 4 NGGIs. The effectiveness of the Global Stocktake and REDD+ monitoring will therefore be constrained by considerable uncertainties, and to reduce these requires a new phase of REDD+ Readiness to ensure more frequent national forest inventories and forest carbon mapping

Herring larval surveys in the Celtic Sea and division VIIj in 1982/83

Peer-reviewed. This article can be found on the ICES website here: http://www.ices.dk/publications/our-publications/Pages/CM-documents.aspxSurveys for herring larvae in the Celtic Sea were conducted between October 1982 ~ and February 1983 for the fifth successive season. To take account of the amalgamation of the Celtic Sea and Div VIIJ herring for assessment purposes and to ascertain if many larval drift into the Irish Sea, the survey grid of previous years was modified for the 1982/83 season. However, because of the nature of the larvae distribution it appears reasonable to compare the larvae index for 1982/83 with those of the previous seasons. The increase in indices since 1978/79 has continued up to 1982/83 indicating a steady, but slow, recovery of the spawning stock. Very few larvae appear to drift into the Irish Sea

Herring larval surveys in the Celtic Sea and division VIIj in 1983/1984

Peer-reviewed. This article can be found on the ICES website here: http://www.ices.dk/publications/our-publications/Pages/CM-documents.aspxSurveys for herring larvae in the Celtic Sea were conducted for the sixth ~ successive season between October 1983 and February 1984. The modifications made to the survey grid in the previous season to take account of the amalgamation of the Celtic Sea and Division VIIj for assessment purposes and to ascertain if larvae drift into the Irish Sea were also adopted for the 1983/84 surveys. A drift of larvae towards the Irish Sea was apparent in 1983/84. The larval abundance index for 1983/84 based on a standard survey area was almost three times higher than any previous value. A continuous increase in larval indices since 1978/79 indicates a recovery of the spawning stock

Evidence for Letter-Specific Position Coding Mechanisms

International audienceThe perceptual matching (same-different judgment) paradigm was used to investigate precision in position coding for strings of letters, digits, and symbols. Reference and target stimuli were 6 characters long and could be identical or differ either by transposing two characters or substituting two characters. The distance separating the two characters was manipulated such that they could either be contiguous, separated by one intervening character, or separated by two intervening characters. Effects of type of character and distance were measured in terms of the difference between the transposition and substitution conditions (transposition cost). Error rates revealed that transposition costs were greater for letters than for digits, which in turn were greater than for symbols. Furthermore, letter stimuli showed a gradual decrease in transposition cost as the distance between the letters increased, whereas the only significant difference for digit and symbol stimuli arose between contiguous and non-contiguous changes, with no effect of distance on the non-contiguous changes. The results are taken as further evidence for letter-specific position coding mechanisms

A new scheme for sulphur dioxide retrieval from IASI measurements: application to the Eyjafjallajökull eruption of April and May 2010

A new optimal estimation algorithm for the retrieval of sulphur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>) has been developed for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) using the channels between 1000–1200 and 1300–1410 cm<sup>−1</sup>. These regions include the two SO<sub>2</sub> absorption bands centred at about 8.7 and 7.3 μm (the ν<sub>1</sub> and ν<sub>3</sub> bands respectively). The retrieval assumes a Gaussian SO<sub>2</sub> profile and returns the SO<sub>2</sub> column amount in Dobson units and the altitude of the plume in millibars (mb). Forward modelled spectra (against which the measurements are compared) are based on the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) code. In our implementation RTTOV uses atmospheric profiles from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) meteorological data. The retrieval includes a comprehensive error budget for every pixel derived from an error covariance matrix that is based on the SO<sub>2</sub>-free climatology of the differences between the IASI and forward modelled spectra. The IASI forward model includes the ability to simulate a cloud or ash layer in the atmosphere. This feature is used to illustrate that: (1) the SO<sub>2</sub> retrieval is not affected by underlying cloud but is affected if the SO<sub>2</sub> is within or below a cloud layer; (2) it is possible to discern if ash (or other atmospheric constituents not considered in the error covariance matrix) affects the retrieval using quality control based on the fit of the measured spectrum by the forward modelled spectrum. In this work, the algorithm is applied to follow the behaviour of SO<sub>2</sub> plumes from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption during April and May 2010. From 14 April to 4 May (during Phase I and II of the eruption) the total amount of SO<sub>2</sub> present in the atmosphere, estimated by IASI measurements, is generally below 0.02 Tg. During the last part of the eruption (Phase III) the values are an order of magnitude higher, with a maximum of 0.18 Tg measured on the afternoon of 7 May

Spectral estimation for spatial point patterns

This article determines how to implement spatial spectral analysis of point processes (in two dimensions or more), by establishing the moments of raw spectral summaries of point processes. We establish the first moments of raw direct spectral estimates such as the discrete Fourier transform of a point pattern. These have a number of surprising features that departs from the properties of raw spectral estimates of random fields and time series. As for random fields, the special case of isotropic processes warrants special attention, which we discuss. For time series and random fields white noise plays a special role, mirrored by the Poisson processes in the case of the point process. For random fields bilinear estimators are prevalent in spectral analysis. We discuss how to smooth any bilinear spectral estimator for a point process. We also determine how to taper this bilinear spectral estimator, how to calculate the periodogram, sample the wavenumbers and discuss the correlation of the periodogram. In parts this corresponds to recommending suitable separable as well as isotropic tapers in d dimensions. This, in aggregation, establishes the foundations for spectral analysis of point processes.Comment: 29 pages + 23 pages of supplements, 6 figure

Distributed Generation and Resilience in Power Grids

We study the effects of the allocation of distributed generation on the resilience of power grids. We find that an unconstrained allocation and growth of the distributed generation can drive a power grid beyond its design parameters. In order to overcome such a problem, we propose a topological algorithm derived from the field of Complex Networks to allocate distributed generation sources in an existing power grid.Comment: proceedings of Critis 2012 http://critis12.hig.no

Age Deficits in Facial Affect Recognition : The Influence of Dynamic Cues

Funding This work was supported by the Australian Research Council, Australia (DP150100302) and the Leverhulme Trust, U.K. (F/00152/W).Peer reviewedPostprin