O prêmio de risco da taxa de câmbio no Brasil

A principal explicação sugerida pela literatura para o viés do preço futuro em relação à taxa de câmbio que prevalecerá no futuro é a existência de um prêmio de risco. Aplicamos aqui os principais modelos teóricos e técnicas econométricas para identificação e mensuração do prêmio de risco aos dados brasileiros do mercado futuro de câmbio posteriores ao Plano Real. Identifica-se um prêmio de risco que varia ao longo do tempo, o qual correlaciona-se com os fundamentos macroeconômicos da economia. A partir de 1999, coerentemente com a introdução da livre flutuação cambial, observou-se uma diminuição da importância do prêmio de risco relativamente aos erros de previsão na composição do forward discount. As técnicas empregadas permitem-nos avaliar importantes questões de política econômica, como o quanto podem cair as taxas de juros reais.

Static circularly symmetric perfect fluid solutions with an exterior BTZ metric

In this work we study static perfect fluid stars in 2+1 dimensions with an exterior BTZ spacetime. We found the general expression for the metric coefficients as a function of the density and pressure of the fluid. We found the conditions to have regularity at the origin throughout the analysis of a set of linearly independent invariants. We also obtain an exact solution of the Einstein equations, with the corresponding equation of state $p=p(\rho)$, which is regular at the origin.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, revtex 4. This paper is in honor of Alberto Garcia's sixtieth birthday. Accepted by Gen. Rel. Gra

Elastic (stress-strain) halo associated to ion-induced nano-tracks in lithium niobate: role of crystal anisotropy

The elastic strain/stress fields (halo) around a compressed amorphous nano-track (core) caused by a single high-energy ion impact on LiNbO3 are calculated. A method is developed to approximately account for the effects of crystal anisotropy of LiNbO3 (symmetry 3m) on the stress fields for tracks oriented along the crystal axes (X, Y or Z). It only considers the zero-order (axial) harmonic contribution to the displacement field in the perpendicular plane and uses effective Poisson moduli for each particular orientation. The anisotropy is relatively small; however, it accounts for some differential features obtained for irradiations along the crystallographic axes X, Y and Z. In particular, the irradiation-induced disorder (including halo) and the associated surface swelling appear to be higher for irradiations along the X- or Y-axis in comparison with those along the Z-axis. Other irradiation effects can be explained by the model, e.g. fracture patterns or the morphology of pores after chemical etching of tracks. Moreover, it offers interesting predictions on the effect of irradiation on lattice parameter

Swift heavy ion damage to sodium chloride: synergy between excitation and thermal spikes

Systematic data on the effect of irradiation with swift ions (Zn at 735 MeV and Xe at 929 MeV) on NaCl single crystals have been analysed in terms of a synergetic two-spike approach (thermal and excitation spikes). The coupling of the two spikes, simultaneously generated by the irradiation, contributes to the operation of a non-radiative exciton decay model as proposed for purely ionization damage. Using this scheme, we have accounted for the π-emission yield of self-trapped excitons and its temperature dependence under ion-beam irradiation. Moreover, the initial production rates of F-centre growth have also been reasonably simulated for irradiation at low temperatures ( < 100 K), where colour centre annealing and aggregation can be neglected

Electron density extrapolation above F2 peak by the linear Vary-Chap model supporting new Global Navigation Satellite Systems-LEO occultation missions

The new radio-occultation (RO) instrument on board the future EUMETSAT Polar System-Second Generation (EPS-SG) satellites, flying at a height of 820 km, is primarily focusing on neutral atmospheric profiling. It will also provide an opportunity for RO ionospheric sounding, but only below impact heights of 500 km, in order to guarantee a full data gathering of the neutral part. This will leave a gap of 320 km, which impedes the application of the direct inversion techniques to retrieve the electron density profile. To overcome this challenge, we have looked for new ways (accurate and simple) of extrapolating the electron density (also applicable to other low-Earth orbiting, LEO, missions like CHAMP): a new Vary-Chap Extrapolation Technique (VCET). VCET is based on the scale height behavior, linearly dependent on the altitude above hmF2. This allows extrapolating the electron density profile for impact heights above its peak height (this is the case for EPS-SG), up to the satellite orbital height. VCET has been assessed with more than 3700 complete electron density profiles obtained in four representative scenarios of the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) in the United States and the Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (FORMOSAT-3) in Taiwan, in solar maximum and minimum conditions, and geomagnetically disturbed conditions, by applying an updated Improved Abel Transform Inversion technique to dual-frequency GPS measurements. It is shown that VCET performs much better than other classical Chapman models, with 60% of occultations showing relative extrapolation errors below 20%, in contrast with conventional Chapman model extrapolation approaches with 10% or less of the profiles with relative error below 20%.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Shape Analysis and Computational Fluid Simulations to Assess Feline Left Atrial Function and Thrombogenesis

In humans, there is a well-established relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF), blood flow abnormalities and thrombus formation, even if there is no clear consensus on the role of left atrial appendage (LAA) morphologies. Cats can also suffer heart diseases, often leading to an enlargement of the left atrium that promotes stagnant blood flow, activating the clotting process and promoting feline aortic thromboembolism. The majority of pathological feline hearts have echocardiographic evidence of abnormal left ventricular filling, usually assessed with 2D and Doppler echocardiography and standard imaging tools. Actually, veterinary professionals have limited access to advanced computational techniques that would enable a better understanding of feline heart pathologies with improved morphological and haemodynamic descriptors. In this work, we applied state-of-the-art image processing and computational fluid simulations based on micro-computed tomography images acquired in 24 cases, including normal cats and cats with varying severity of cardiomyopathy. The main goal of the study was to identify differences in the LA/LAA morphologies and blood flow patterns in the analysed cohorts with respect to thrombus formation and cardiac pathology. The obtained results show significant differences between normal and pathological feline hearts, as well as in thrombus vs non-thrombus cases and asymptomatic vs symptomatic cases, while it was not possible to discern in congestive heart failure with thrombus and from non-thrombus cases. Additionally, in-silico fluid simulations demonstrated lower LAA blood flow velocities and higher thrombotic risk in the thrombus cases

Micro and nano-patterning of single-crystal diamond by swift heavy ion irradiation

This paper presents experimental data and analysis of the structural damage caused by swift-heavy ion irradiation of single-crystal diamond. The patterned buried structural damage is shown to generate, via swelling, a mirror- pattern on the sample surface, which remains largely damage-free. While extensive results are available for light ion implantations, this effect is reported here for the first time in the heavy ion regime,where a completely different range of input parameters (in terms of ion species, energy, stopping power, etc.) is available for customized irradiation. The chosen ion species are Au and Br, in the energy range 10–40 MeV. The observed patterns, as characterized by profilometry and atomic force microscopy, are reported in a series ofmodel experiments,which show swelling patterns ranging from a few nm to above 200 nm. Moreover, a systematic phenomenological modeling is presented, inwhich surface swelling measurements are correlated to buried crystal damage. A comparison ismade with data for light ion implantations, showing good compatibilitywith the proposedmodels. The modeling presented in thiswork can be useful for the design and realization of micropatterned surfaces in single crystal diamond, allowing generating highly customized structures by combining appropriately chosen irradiation parameters and masks

Climate drives community-wide divergence within species over a limited spatial scale: evidence from an oceanic island

Geographic isolation substantially contributes to species endemism on oceanic islands when speciation involves the colonisation of a new island. However, less is understood about the drivers of speciation within islands. What is lacking is a general understanding of the geographic scale of gene flow limitation within islands, and thus the spatial scale and drivers of geographical speciation within insular contexts. Using a community of beetle species, we show that when dispersal ability and climate tolerance are restricted, microclimatic variation over distances of only a few kilometres can maintain strong geographic isolation extending back several millions of years. Further to this, we demonstrate congruent diversification with gene flow across species, mediated by Quaternary climate oscillations that have facilitated a dynamic of isolation and secondary contact. The unprecedented scale of parallel species responses to a common environmental driver for evolutionary change has profound consequences for understanding past and future species responses to climate variation

Surgical treatment for colorectal cancer: Analysis of the influence of an enhanced recovery programme on long-term oncological outcomes-a study protocol for a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction The evidence currently available from enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programmes concerns their benefits in the immediate postoperative period, but there is still very little evidence as to whether their correct implementation benefits patients in the long term. The working hypothesis here is that, due to the lower response to surgical aggression and lower rates of postoperative complications, ERAS protocols can reduce colorectal cancer-related mortality. The main objective of this study is to analyse the impact of an ERAS programme for colorectal cancer on 5-year survival. As secondary objectives, we propose to analyse the weight of each of the predefined items in the oncological results as well as the quality of life. Methods and analysis A multicentre prospective cohort study was conducted in patients older than 18 years of age who are scheduled to undergo surgery for colorectal cancer. The study involved 12 hospitals with an implemented enhanced recovery protocol according to the guidelines published by the Spanish National Health Service. The intervention group includes patients with a minimum implementation level of 70%, and the control group includes those who fail to reach this level. Compliance will be studied using 18 key performance indicators, and the results will be analysed using cancer survival indicators, including overall survival, cancer-specific survival and relapse-free survival. The time to recurrence, perioperative morbidity and mortality, hospital stay and quality of life will also be studied, the latter using the validated EuroQol Five questionnaire. The propensity index method will be used to create comparable treatment and control groups, and a multivariate regression will be used to study each variable. The Kaplan-Meier estimator will be used to estimate survival and the log-rank test to make comparisons. A p value of less than 0.05 (two-tailed) will be considered to be significant. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this study was obtained from the Aragon Ethical Committee (C.P.-C.I. PI20/086) on 4 March 2020. The findings of this study will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals (BMJ Open, JAMA Surgery, Annals of Surgery, British Journal of Surgery). Abstracts will be submitted to relevant national and international meetings. Trial registration number NCT04305314