Regression games

The solution of a TU cooperative game can be a distribution of the value of the grand coalition, i.e. it can be a distribution of the payo (utility) all the players together achieve. In a regression model, the evaluation of the explanatory variables can be a distribution of the overall t, i.e. the t of the model every regressor variable is involved. Furthermore, we can take regression models as TU cooperative games where the explanatory (regressor) variables are the players. In this paper we introduce the class of regression games, characterize it and apply the Shapley value to evaluating the explanatory variables in regression models. In order to support our approach we consider Young (1985)'s axiomatization of the Shapley value, and conclude that the Shapley value is a reasonable tool to evaluate the explanatory variables of regression models

Thermal adaptation and clinal mitochondrial DNA variation of European anchovy

Natural populations of widely distributed organisms often exhibit genetic clinal variation over their geographical ranges. The European anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus, illustrates this by displaying a two-clade mitochondrial structure clinally arranged along the eastern Atlantic. One clade has low frequencies at higher latitudes, whereas the other has an anti-tropical distribution, with frequencies decreasing towards the tropics. The distribution pattern of these clades has been explained as a consequence of secondary contact after an ancient geographical isolation. However, it is not unlikely that selection acts on mitochondria whose genes are involved in relevant oxidative phosphorylation processes. In this study, we performed selection tests on a fragment of 1044 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene using 455 individuals from 18 locations. We also tested correlations of six environmental features: temperature, salinity, apparent oxygen utilization and nutrient concentrations of phosphate, nitrate and silicate, on a compilation of mitochondrial clade frequencies from 66 sampling sites comprising 2776 specimens from previously published studies. Positive selection in a single codon was detected predominantly (99%) in the anti-tropical clade and temperature was the most relevant environmental predictor, contributing with 59% of the variance in the geographical distribution of clade frequencies. These findings strongly suggest that temperature is shaping the contemporary distribution of mitochondrial DNA clade frequencies in the European anchovy.FCT [SFRH/BD/36600/2007, IF/00043/2012

Healthcare workers' participation in a healthy-lifestyle-promotion project in western Sweden

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Healthcare professionals play a central role in health promotion and lifestyle information towards patients as well as towards the general population, and it has been shown that own lifestyle habits can influence attitudes and counselling practice towards patients. The purpose of this study was to explore the participation of healthcare workers (HCWs) in a worksite health promotion (WHP) programme. We also aimed to find out whether HCWs with poorer lifestyle-related health engage in health-promotion activities to a larger extent than employees reporting healthier lifestyles.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>A biennial questionnaire survey was used in this study, and it was originally posted to employees in the public healthcare sector in western Sweden, one year before the onset of the WHP programme. The response rate was 61% (n = 3207). In the four-year follow-up, a question regarding participation in a three-year-long WHP programme was included, and those responding to this question were included in the final analysis (n = 1859). The WHP programme used a broad all-inclusive approach, relying on the individual's decision to participate in activities related to four different themes: physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and happiness/enjoyment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The participation rate was around 21%, the most popular theme being physical activity. Indicators of lifestyle-related health/behaviour for each theme were used, and regression analysis showed that individuals who were sedentary prior to the programme were less likely to participate in the programme's physical activities than the more active individuals. Participation in the other three themes was not significantly predicted by the indicators of the lifestyle-related health, (body mass index, sleep disturbances, or depressive mood).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results indicate that HCWs are not more prone to participate in WHP programmes compared to what has been reported for other working populations, and despite a supposedly good knowledge of health-related issues, HCWs reporting relatively unfavourable lifestyles are not more motivated to participate. As HCWs are key actors in promoting healthy lifestyles to other groups (such as patients), it is of utmost importance to find strategies to engage this professional group in activities that promote their own health.</p

Estimating and Modelling Bias of the Hierarchical Partitioning Public-Domain Software: Implications in Environmental Management and Conservation

BACKGROUND: Hierarchical partitioning (HP) is an analytical method of multiple regression that identifies the most likely causal factors while alleviating multicollinearity problems. Its use is increasing in ecology and conservation by its usefulness for complementing multiple regression analysis. A public-domain software "hier.part package" has been developed for running HP in R software. Its authors highlight a "minor rounding error" for hierarchies constructed from >9 variables, however potential bias by using this module has not yet been examined. Knowing this bias is pivotal because, for example, the ranking obtained in HP is being used as a criterion for establishing priorities of conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using numerical simulations and two real examples, we assessed the robustness of this HP module in relation to the order the variables have in the analysis. Results indicated a considerable effect of the variable order on the amount of independent variance explained by predictors for models with >9 explanatory variables. For these models the nominal ranking of importance of the predictors changed with variable order, i.e. predictors declared important by its contribution in explaining the response variable frequently changed to be either most or less important with other variable orders. The probability of changing position of a variable was best explained by the difference in independent explanatory power between that variable and the previous one in the nominal ranking of importance. The lesser is this difference, the more likely is the change of position. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: HP should be applied with caution when more than 9 explanatory variables are used to know ranking of covariate importance. The explained variance is not a useful parameter to use in models with more than 9 independent variables. The inconsistency in the results obtained by HP should be considered in future studies as well as in those already published. Some recommendations to improve the analysis with this HP module are given

Identification of Pharmacological Modulators of HMGB1-Induced Inflammatory Response by Cell-Based Screening

High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1), a highly conserved, ubiquitous protein, is released into the circulation during sterile inflammation (e.g. arthritis, trauma) and circulatory shock. It participates in the pathogenesis of delayed inflammatory responses and organ dysfunction. While several molecules have been identified that modulate the release of HMGB1, less attention has been paid to identify pharmacological inhibitors of the downstream inflammatory processes elicited by HMGB1 (C23-C45 disulfide C106 thiol form). In the current study, a cell-based medium-throughput screening of a 5000+ compound focused library of clinical drugs and drug-like compounds was performed in murine RAW264.7 macrophages, in order to identify modulators of HMGB1-induced tumor-necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) production. Clinically used drugs that suppressed HMGB1-induced TNFα production included glucocorticoids, beta agonists, and the anti-HIV compound indinavir. A re-screen of the NIH clinical compound library identified beta-agonists and various intracellular cAMP enhancers as compounds that potentiate the inhibitory effect of glucocorticoids on HMGB1-induced TNFα production. The molecular pathways involved in this synergistic anti-inflammatory effect are related, at least in part, to inhibition of TNFα mRNA synthesis via a synergistic suppression of ERK/IκB activation. Inhibition of TNFα production by prednisolone+salbutamol pretreatment was also confirmed in vivo in mice subjected to HMGB1 injection; this effect was more pronounced than the effect of either of the agents administered separately. The current study unveils several drug-like modulators of HMGB1-mediated inflammatory responses and offers pharmacological directions for the therapeutic suppression of inflammatory responses in HMGB1-dependent diseases. © 2013 Gerö et al

Disentangling the Relative Importance of Changes in Climate and Land-Use Intensity in Driving Recent Bird Population Trends

Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations

Surface Covering of Downed Logs: Drivers of a Neglected Process in Dead Wood Ecology

Many species use coarse woody debris (CWD) and are disadvantaged by the forestry-induced loss of this resource. A neglected process affecting CWD is the covering of the surfaces of downed logs caused by sinking into the ground (increasing soil contact, mostly covering the underside of the log), and dense overgrowth by ground vegetation. Such cover is likely to profoundly influence the quality and accessibility of CWD for wood-inhabiting organisms, but the factors affecting covering are largely unknown. In a five-year experiment we determined predictors of covering rate of fresh logs in boreal forests and clear-cuts. Logs with branches were little covered because they had low longitudinal ground contact. For branchless logs, longitudinal ground contact was most strongly related to estimated peat depth (positive relation). The strongest predictor for total cover of branchless logs was longitudinal ground contact. To evaluate the effect on cover of factors other than longitudinal ground contact, we separately analyzed data from only those log sections that were in contact with the ground. Four factors were prominent predictors of percentage cover of such log sections: estimated peat depth, canopy shade (both increasing cover), potential solar radiation calculated from slope and slope aspect, and diameter of the log (both reducing cover). Peat increased cover directly through its low resistance, which allowed logs to sink and soil contact to increase. High moisture and low temperatures in pole-ward facing slopes and under a canopy favor peat formation through lowered decomposition and enhanced growth of peat-forming mosses, which also proved to rapidly overgrow logs. We found that in some boreal forests, peat and fast-growing mosses can rapidly cover logs lying on the ground. When actively introducing CWD for conservation purposes, we recommend that such rapid covering is avoided, thereby most likely improving the CWD's longevity as habitat for many species

Determinants of change in subtropical tree diameter growth with ontogenetic stage

We evaluated the degree to which relative growth rate (RGR) of saplings and large trees is related to seven functional traits that describe physiological behavior and soil environmental factors related to topography and fertility for 57 subtropical tree species in Dinghushan, China. The mean values of functional traits and soil environmental factors for each species that were related to RGR varied with ontogenetic stage. Sapling RGR showed greater relationships with functional traits than large-tree RGR, whereas large-tree RGR was more associated with soil environment than was sapling RGR. The strongest single predictors of RGR were wood density for saplings and slope aspect for large trees. The stepwise regression model for large trees accounted for a larger proportion of variability (R 2 = 0.95) in RGR than the model for saplings (R 2 = 0.55). Functional diversity analysis revealed that the process of habitat filtering likely contributes to the substantial changes in regulation of RGR as communities transition from saplings to large trees. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg