The Australian Kangaroo Populations, 1984

Between the first Australian-wide aerial survey of kangaroos in 1980-82 and the second in 1984, indices of relative abundance determined by the same methods show that red kangaroos declined by 24% and western and eastern greys by 35%. The declines are attributed mainly to drought in the eastern half of the continent, partly offset by increases in the western half. We estimate numbers in 1984 at 6.3 million red kangaroos (cf. 8.3 in 1980-82), 1.2 million western greys (1.8) and 5.8 million eastern greys (9.0), a total of 13 millions of all three species compared with 19 millions in 1980-82. This is an overall drop of about 30%. Because recent work suggests that the sightability of both species of grey kangaroos is lower than that for reds, estimates of grey kangaroos will be less than the real numbers and should, therefore, be regarded as indices of relative abundance rather than as absolute estimates

Using self-organizing maps to investigate environmental factors regulating colony size and breeding success of the White Stork (Ciconia ciconia)

We studied variations in the size of breeding colonies and in breeding performance of White Storks Ciconia ciconia in 2006–2008 in north-east Algeria. Each colony site was characterized using 12 environmental variables describing the physical environment, land-cover categories, and human activities, and by three demographic parameters: the number of breeding pairs, the number of pairs with chicks, and the number of fledged chicks per pair. Generalized linear mixed models and the self-organizing map algorithm (SOM, neural network) were used to investigate effects of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors on demographic parameters and on their relationships. Numbers of breeding pairs and of pairs with chicks were affected by the same environmental factors, mainly anthropogenic, which differed from those affecting the number of fledged chicks per pair. Numbers of fledged chicks per pair was not affected by colony size or by the number of nests with chicks. The categorization of the environmental variables into natural and anthropogenic, in connection with demographic parameters, was relevant to detect factors explaining variation in colony size and breeding parameters. The SOM proved a relevant tool to help determine actual dynamics in White Stork colonies, and thus to support effective conservation decisions at a regional scale

Kangaroo Population Trends In The Australian Rangelands, 1980-87

This paper presents results from the third set of extensive aerial surveys of Australia's kangaroo populations, flown in 1987. Although it is now known that sightability correction factors used in the first two surveys were too low, particularly for both species of grey kangaroos, we retain the same corrections to allow for comparability between surveys. Total populations declined by 22% for Reds and 34% each for Greys, but trends were not consistent across the continent. Decreases were occurred throughout the eastern pastoral zones, being most pronounced in NSW and least pronounced in Queensland. Declines in these areas and in the South Australian Pastoral Zone corresponded with the 1982-83 drought. In contrast, populations rose in WA, where there had been good rainfall

Demography and Life Histories of Sympatric Patas Monkeys, Erythrocebus patas, and Vervets, Cercopithecus aethiops, in Laikipia, Kenya

Mortality patterns are thought to be strong selective forces on life history traits, with high adult mortality and low immature mortality favoring early and rapid reproduction. Patas monkeys (Erythrocebus patas) have the highest potential rates of population increase for their body size of any haplorhine primate because they reproduce both earlier and more often. We report here 10 yr of comparative demographic data on a population of patas monkeys and a sympatric population of vervet monkeys (Cercopithecus aethiops), a closely related species differing in aspects of social system, ecology, and life history. The data reveal that 1) adult female patas monkeys have significantly higher mortality than adult female vervets; 2) infant mortality in patas monkeys is relatively low compared to the norm for mammals because it is not significantly different from that of adult female patas monkeys; and 3) infant mortality is significantly higher than adult female mortality in vervets. For both species, much of the mortality could be attributed to predation. An epidemic illness was also a major contributor to the mortality of adult female patas monkeys whereas chronic exposure to pathogens in a cold and damp microenvironment may have contributed to the mortality of infant vervets. Both populations experienced large fluctuations during the study period. Our results support the prediction from demographic models of life history evolution that high adult mortality relative to immature mortality selects for early maturation

Testing the Accuracy of Aerial Surveys for Large Mammals: An Experiment with African Savanna Elephants (Loxodonta africana)

Accurate counts of animals are critical for prioritizing conservation efforts. Past research, however, suggests that observers on aerial surveys may fail to detect all individuals of the target species present in the survey area. Such errors could bias population estimates low and confound trend estimation. We used two approaches to assess the accuracy of aerial surveys for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in northern Botswana. First, we used double-observer sampling, in which two observers make observations on the same herds, to estimate detectability of elephants and determine what variables affect it. Second, we compared total counts, a complete survey of the entire study area, against sample counts, in which only a portion of the study area is sampled. Total counts are often considered a complete census, so comparing total counts against sample counts can help to determine if sample counts are underestimating elephant numbers. We estimated that observers detected only 76% ± SE of 2% of elephant herds and 87 ± 1% of individual elephants present in survey strips. Detectability increased strongly with elephant herd size. Out of the four observers used in total, one observer had a lower detection probability than the other three, and detectability was higher in the rear row of seats than the front. The habitat immediately adjacent to animals also affected detectability, with detection more likely in more open habitats. Total counts were not statistically distinguishable from sample counts. Because, however, the double-observer samples revealed that observers missed 13% of elephants, we conclude that total counts may be undercounting elephants as well. These results suggest that elephant population estimates from both sample and total counts are biased low. Because factors such as observer and habitat affected detectability of elephants, comparisons of elephant populations across time or space may be confounded. We encourage survey teams to incorporate detectability analysis in all aerial surveys for mammals

The Extinction of Dengue through Natural Vulnerability of Its Vectors

Dengue transmission has not always been confined to tropical areas. In some cases, this has been due to a reduced geographic range of the mosquitoes that are able to carry dengue viruses. In Australia, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes once occurred throughout temperate, drier parts of the country but are now restricted to the wet tropics. We used a computer modelling approach to determine whether these mosquitoes could inhabit their former range. This was done by simulating dengue mosquito populations in virtual environments that experienced 10 years of actual daily weather conditions (1998–2007) obtained for 13 locations inside and outside the current tropical range. We discovered that in areas outside the Australian wet tropics, Ae. aegypti often becomes extinct, particularly when conditions are too cool for year-round egg-laying activity, and/or too dry for eggs to hatch. Thus, despite being a global pest and disease vector, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes are naturally vulnerable to extinction in certain conditions. Such vulnerability should be exploited in vector control programs