Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks

Networks are increasingly central to modern science owing to their ability to conceptualize multiple interacting components of a complex system. As a specific example of this, understanding the implications of contact network structure for the transmission of infectious diseases remains a key issue in epidemiology. Three broad approaches to this problem exist: explicit simulation; derivation of exact results for special networks; and dynamical approximations. This paper focuses on the last of these approaches, and makes two main contributions. Firstly, formal mathematical links are demonstrated between several prima facie unrelated dynamical approximations. And secondly, these links are used to derive two novel dynamical models for network epidemiology, which are compared against explicit stochastic simulation. The success of these new models provides improved understanding about the interaction of network structure and transmission dynamics

Fibrational induction meets effects

This paper provides several induction rules that can be used to prove properties of effectful data types. Our results are semantic in nature and build upon Hermida and Jacobs’ fibrational formulation of induction for polynomial data types and its extension to all inductive data types by Ghani, Johann, and Fumex. An effectful data type μ(TF) is built from a functor F that describes data, and a monad T that computes effects. Our main contribution is to derive induction rules that are generic over all functors F and monads T such that μ(TF) exists. Along the way, we also derive a principle of definition by structural recursion for effectful data types that is similarly generic. Our induction rule is also generic over the kinds of properties to be proved: like the work on which we build, we work in a general fibrational setting and so can accommodate very general notions of properties, rather than just those of particular syntactic forms. We give examples exploiting the generality of our results, and show how our results specialize to those in the literature, particularly those of Filinski and Støvring

Media Video Kejadian Fisika Di Lingkungan Disertai Besaran Fisis Dalam Pembelajaran Fisika Di SMA (Studi Pada Kelas X SMA Negeri 1 Muncar)

Video Media Physics Phenomenon in Environment Accompanied by Physical Magnitudes, showing video physics phenomenon the existing events around students (contains the concepts of physics) that accompanied a detailed of the physical magnitudes according to the material used. The purposes of this research are to describe learning activities, determine the difference learning achievement of physics before and after learning, and describe their retention. This research was carried out in SMA Negeri 1 Muncar and this research is a research quasi experiment, doing only in one group of experiments. This type of design used the Time-Series Design. Data learning activities during learning that applying Video Media Physics Phenomenon in Environment Accompanied by Physical Magnitudes obtained 79,41% in average, the data analysis learning achievement using t-test and t-table that show the value of t-test > t-table, and the is high grades with the retention ≥ 70% in each of the meeting. This research can be concluded that the activity of learning to used Video Media Physics Phenomenon in Environment Accompanied by Physical Magnitudes categorized is active, there is difference in learning achievement before and after learning, and have a strong retention

Sustainable Urban Drainage System (SUDS) – Malaysian Experiences.

Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) have been used widely in USA, Europe, Japan and Australia to name a few developed countries

A principled approach to programming with nested types in Haskell

Initial algebra semantics is one of the cornerstones of the theory of modern functional programming languages. For each inductive data type, it provides a Church encoding for that type, a build combinator which constructs data of that type, a fold combinator which encapsulates structured recursion over data of that type, and a fold/build rule which optimises modular programs by eliminating from them data constructed using the buildcombinator, and immediately consumed using the foldcombinator, for that type. It has long been thought that initial algebra semantics is not expressive enough to provide a similar foundation for programming with nested types in Haskell. Specifically, the standard folds derived from initial algebra semantics have been considered too weak to capture commonly occurring patterns of recursion over data of nested types in Haskell, and no build combinators or fold/build rules have until now been defined for nested types. This paper shows that standard folds are, in fact, sufficiently expressive for programming with nested types in Haskell. It also defines buildcombinators and fold/build fusion rules for nested types. It thus shows how initial algebra semantics provides a principled, expressive, and elegant foundation for programming with nested types in Haskell

Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load.

OBJECTIVE: Trials of herpes simplex virus (HSV) suppressive therapy among HSV-2/HIV-1-infected individuals have reported an impact on plasma HIV-1 viral loads (PVLs). Our aim was to estimate the population-level impact of suppressive therapy on female-to-male HIV-1 sexual transmission. DESIGN AND METHODS: By comparing prerandomization and postrandomization individual-level PVL data from the first two HSV suppressive therapy randomized controlled trials in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated the effect of treatment on duration of asymptomatic infection and number of HIV-1 transmission events for each trial. RESULTS: Assuming that a reduction in PVL is accompanied by an increased duration of HIV-1 asymptomatic infection, 4-6 years of HSV suppressive therapy produce a 1-year increase in the duration of this stage. To avert one HIV-1 transmission requires 8.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.9-14.9] and 11.4 (95% CI, 7.8-27.5) women to be treated from halfway through their HIV-1 asymptomatic period, using results from Burkina Faso and South African trials, respectively. Regardless of the timing of treatment initiation, 51.6 (95% CI, 30.4-137.0) and 66.5 (95% CI, 36.7-222.6) treatment-years are required to avert one HIV-1 infection. Distributions of set-point PVL values from sub-Saharan African populations suggest that unintended adverse consequences of therapy at the population level (i.e. increased HIV-1 transmission due to increased duration of infection) are unlikely to occur in these settings. CONCLUSION: HSV suppressive therapy may avert relatively few HIV-1 transmission events per person-year of treatment. Its use as a prevention intervention may be limited; however, further research into its effect on rate of CD4 cell count decline and the impact of higher dosing schedules is warranted

Nonparametric Estimation of the Case Fatality Ratio with Competing Risks Data: An Application to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndome (SARS)

For diseases with some level of associated mortality, the case fatality ratio measures the proportion of diseased individuals who die from the disease. In principle, it is straightforward to estimate this quantity from individual follow-up data that provides times from onset to death or recovery. In particular, in a competing risks context, the case fatality ratio is defined by the limiting value of the sub-distribution function, associated with death, at infinity. When censoring is present, however, estimation of this quantity is complicated by the possibility of little information in the right tail of of the sub-distribution function, requiring use of estimators evaluated at large or the largest observed death times. With right censoring, the variability of such estimators is large in the tail, suggesting the possibility of using estimators evaluated at smaller death times where bias may be increased but overall mean squared error be smaller. These issues are investigated here for nonparametric estimators of the sub-distribution functions for both death and recovery. The ideas are illustrated on case fatality data for individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong in 2003

COMPETITION AMONG HOSPITALS AND ITS MEASUREMENT: THEORY AND A CASE STUDY

Our paper provides several insights on the characteristics of the concept of “Poles d’Excellence Rurale” (PER) through bilateral comparisons with that of Competitive Pole (CP) and cluster. The concept of PER is a French government’ initiative designed for the development of rural areas similar to that of the Competitive Pole. We emphasize important particularities of these concepts by analyzing some of their similarities and major differences.Pole d’Excellence Rurale, Competitive Pole, cluster, rural development