Conditions for successful range shifts under climate change -the role of species dispersal and landscape configuration

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Aim: Ongoing climate change is currently modifying the geographical location of areas that are climatically suitable for species. Understanding a species’ ability to successfully shift its geographical range would allow us to assess extinction risks and predict future community compositions. We investigate how habitat configuration impedes or promotes climate-driven range shifts, given different speeds of climate change and dispersal abilities. Location: Theoretical, but illustrated with European examples. Methods: We model how a species’ ability to track a directional shift in climatic conditions is affected by: i) species’ dispersal abilities; ii) speed of climatic shift; and iii) spatial arrangement of the habitat. Our modeling framework includes within and between-patch population dynamics and uses ecologically realistic habitat distributions and dispersal scenarios (verified with data from a set of European mammal species), and, as such, is an improvement of classical range shift models. Results: In landscapes with a homogeneous distribution of suitable habitats, all but the least dispersive species will be able to range shift. However, species with high dispersal ability will have lower population densities after range shift. In heterogeneous landscapes species’ ability to range shift is far more variable and heavily dependent on the habitat configuration. This means that landscape configuration in combination with the speed of climate change and species dispersal abilities give rise to non-linear effects on population sizes and survival after a climatic shift. Main conclusions: : Our analyses point out the importance of accounting for the interplay of species dispersal and the landscape configuration when estimating future climate impact on species. These results link ecologically important attributes of both species and their landscapes to outcomes of species range shift, and thereby long-term persistence of ecological communities.This research was funded by the ERA-Net BiodivERsA, part of the 2011 BiodivERsA call for research proposals. RE and A.Es acknowledge the ERA-Net BiodivERsA, with the national funder FCT, through the project BIODIVERSA/00003/2011. A.Ek. acknowledge funding from Swedish Research Council grant number 2016-04919. A.Es. has a postdoctoral contract funded by the project CN-17-022 (Principado de Asturias, Spain)

A retrospective population based trend analysis on hospital admissions for lower respiratory illness among Swedish children from 1987 to 2000

BACKGROUND: Data relating to hospital admissions of very young children for wheezing illness have been conflicting. Our primary aim was to assess whether a previous increase in hospital admissions for lower respiratory illness had continued in young Swedish children. We have included re-admissions in our analyses in order to evaluate the burden of lower respiratory illness in very young children. We have also assessed whether changes in the labelling of symptoms have affected the time trend. METHODS: A retrospective, population based study was conducted to assess the time trend in admissions and re-admissions for lower respiratory illness. Data were obtained from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register for all children with a first hospital admission before nine years of age, a total of 109,176 children. The register covers more than 98% of all hospital admissions in Sweden. The coding of diagnoses was based on ICD-9 from 1987 to 1996 and ICD-10 from 1997. RESULTS: The first admission rates declined significantly in children with a first admission after two years of age. However, an increasing admission trend was observed in children aged less than one year and 35% of first admissions occurred in this age group. The annual increase was 3.8% (95% CI 1.3–6.3) in boys and 5.0% (95% CI 2.4–7.6) in girls. A diagnostic shift appeared to occur when ICD-10 was introduced in 1997. The asthma and pneumonia admission rate in children aged less than one year levelled off, whereas the increase in admissions for bronchitis continued. The re-admission rates for asthma decreased and the probability of re-admission was higher in boys. National drug statistics demonstrated a substantial increase in the delivery of inhaled steroids to all age groups but most prescriptions occurred to children aged one year or more. CONCLUSION: Hospital admissions for lower respiratory illness are still increasing in children aged <1 year. Our findings are in line with other recent studies suggesting a change in the responsiveness to viral infections in very young children, but changes in admission criteria cannot be excluded. An increased use of inhaled steroids may have contributed to decreasing re-admission rates

Determinants of lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness in asthmatic children

SummaryBackgroundAsthma patients exhibit an increased rate of loss of lung function. Determinants to such decline are largely unknown and the modifying effect of steroid therapy is disputed. This cross-sectional study aimed to elucidate factors contributing to such decline and the possible modifying effect of steroid treatment.MethodsWe analyzed determinants of lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) in a Scandinavian study of 2390 subjects from 550 families. Families were selected for the presence of two or more asthmatic children as part of a genetic study, Scandinavian Asthma Genetic Study (SAGA).ResultsThe primary analysis studied the association between the lung function and delay of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) after asthma diagnosis among asthmatic children and young adults with a history of regular ICS treatment (N=919). FEV1 percent predicted (FEV1% pred) was 0.25% lower per year of delay from diagnosis until treatment (p=0.039). This association was significantly greater in allergy skin prick test negative children. There was no significant influence of gender, age at asthma onset, or smoking.In the secondary analysis of the whole population of 2390 asthmatics and non-asthmatics, FEV1% pred was inversely related to having asthmatic siblings (−7.9%; p<0.0001), asthma diagnosis (−2.7%; p=0.0007), smoking (−3.5%; p=0.0027), and positive allergy skin prick test (−0.47% per test; p=0.012), while positively related to being of female gender (1.8%; p=0.0029). Risk of AHR was higher by having asthmatic siblings (OR 2.7; p<0.0001), being of female gender (OR 2.0; p<0.0001), and having asthma (OR 2.0; p<0.0001).ConclusionsThese data suggest that lung function is lower in asthmatics with delayed introduction of ICS therapy, smoking, and positive allergy skin prick test. Lung function is lower and AHR higher in female asthmatics and subjects with asthmatic siblings or established asthma

Maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of recurrent wheezing during the first years of life (BAMSE)

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cigarette smoking during foetal and early postnatal life may have implications for lung health. The aim of this study was to assess the possible effects of such exposure in utero on lower respiratory disease in children up to two years of age. METHODS: A birth cohort of 4089 newborn infants was followed for two years using parental questionnaires. When the infant was two months old the parents completed a questionnaire on various lifestyle factors, including maternal smoking during pregnancy and after birth. At one and two years of age information was obtained by questionnaire on symptoms of allergic and respiratory diseases as well as on environmental exposures, particularly exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Adjustments were made for potential confounders. RESULTS: When the mother had smoked during pregnancy but not after that, there was an increased risk of recurrent wheezing up to two years' age, OR(adj )= 2.2, (95% CI 1.3 – 3.6). The corresponding OR was 1.6, (95% CI 1.2 – 2.3) for reported exposure to ETS with or without maternal smoking in utero. Maternal smoking during pregnancy but no exposure to ETS also increased the risk of doctor's diagnosed asthma up to two years of age, OR(adj )= 2.1, (95% CI 1.2 – 3.7). CONCLUSION: Exposure to maternal cigarette smoking in utero is a risk factor for recurrent wheezing, as well as doctor's diagnosed asthma in children up to two yearsof age

What are the beliefs of pediatricians and dietitians regarding complementary food introduction to prevent allergy?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The timing of complementary food introduction is controversial. Providing information on the timing of dietary introduction is crucial to the primary prevention of food allergy. The American Academy of Pediatrics offers dietary recommendations that were updated in 2008.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>Identify the recommendations that general pediatricians and registered dietitians provide to parents and delineate any differences in counselling.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 9-item survey was distributed to pediatricians and dietitians online and by mail. Information on practitioner type, gender, length of practice and specific recommendations regarding complementary food introduction and exposure was collected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>181 surveys were returned with a 54% response rate from pediatricians. It was not possible to calculate a meaningful dietitian response rate due to overlapping email databases. 52.5% of all respondents were pediatricians and 45.9% were dietitians. The majority of pediatricians and dietitians advise mothers that peanut abstinence during pregnancy and lactation is unnecessary. Dietitians were more likely to counsel mothers to breastfeed their infants to prevent development of atopic dermatitis than pediatricians. Hydrolyzed formulas for infants at risk of developing allergy were the top choice of formula amongst both practitioners. For food allergy prevention, pediatricians were more likely to recommend delayed introduction of peanut and egg, while most dietitians recommended no delay in allergenic food introduction.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In the prophylaxis of food allergy, pediatricians are less aware than dietitians of the current recommendation that there is no benefit in delaying allergenic food introduction beyond 4 to 6 months. More dietitians than pediatricians believe that breastfeeding decreases the risk of atopic dermatitis. Practitioners may benefit from increased awareness of current guidelines.</p

Surveillance study of apparent life-threatening events (ALTE) in the Netherlands

SIDS and ALTE are different entities that somehow show some similarities. Both constitute heterogeneous conditions. The Netherlands is a low-incidence country for SIDS. To study whether the same would hold for ALTE, we studied the incidence, etiology, and current treatment of ALTE in The Netherlands. Using the Dutch Pediatric Surveillance Unit, pediatricians working in second- and third-level hospitals in the Netherlands were asked to report any case of ALTE presented in their hospital from January 2002 to January 2003. A questionnaire was subsequently sent to collect personal data, data on pregnancy and birth, condition preceding the incident, the incident itself, condition after the incident, investigations performed, monitoring or treatment initiated during admission, any diagnosis made at discharge, and treatment or parental support offered after discharge. A total of 115 cases of ALTE were reported, of which 110 questionnaires were filled in and returned (response rate 97%). Based on the national birth rate of 200,000, the incidence of ALTE amounted 0.58/1,000 live born infants. No deaths occurred. Clinical diagnoses could be assessed in 58.2%. Most frequent diagnoses were (percentages of the total of 110 cases) gastro-esophageal reflux and respiratory tract infection (37.3% and 8.2%, respectively); main symptoms were change of color and muscle tone, choking, and gagging. The differences in diagnoses are heterogeneous. In 34%, parents shook their infants, which is alarmingly high. Pre- and postmature infants were overrepresented in this survey (29.5% and 8.2%, respectively). Ten percent had recurrent ALTE. In total, 15.5% of the infants were discharged with a home monitor. In conclusion, ALTE has a low incidence in second- and third-level hospitals in the Netherlands. Parents should be systematically informed about the possible devastating effects of shaking an infant. Careful history taking and targeted additional investigations are of utmost importance

Spatial and temporal investigations of reported movements, births and deaths of cattle and pigs in Sweden

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Livestock movements can affect the spread and control of contagious diseases and new data recording systems enable analysis of these movements. The results can be used for contingency planning, modelling of disease spread and design of disease control programs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data on the Swedish cattle and pig populations during the period July 2005 until June 2006 were obtained from databases held by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Movements of cattle and pigs were investigated from geographical and temporal perspectives, births and deaths of cattle were investigated from a temporal perspective and the geographical distribution of holdings was also investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Most movements of cattle and pigs were to holdings within 100 km, but movements up to 1200 km occurred. Consequently, the majority of movements occurred within the same county or to adjacent counties. Approximately 54% of the cattle holdings and 45% of the pig holdings did not purchase any live animals. Seasonal variations in births and deaths of cattle were identified, with peaks in spring. Cattle movements peaked in spring and autumn. The maximum number of holdings within a 3 km radius of one holding was 45 for cattle and 23 for pigs, with large variations among counties. Missing data and reporting bias (digit preference) were detected in the data.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The databases are valuable tools in contact tracing. However since movements can be reported up to a week after the event and some data are missing they cannot replace other methods in the acute phase of an outbreak. We identified long distance transports of cattle and pigs, and these findings support an implementation of a total standstill in the country in the case of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The databases contain valuable information and improvements in data quality would make them even more useful.</p

Low hospital admission rates for respiratory diseases in children

BACKGROUND: Population-based data on hospital admissions for children aged 0-17 years concerning all respiratory diseases are scarce. This study examined hospital admissions in relation to the preceding consultations in general practice in this age group. METHODS: Data on children aged 0-17 years with respiratory diseases included in the Second Dutch National Survey of General Practice (DNSGP-2) were linked to all hospital admissions in the Dutch National Medical Registration. Admission rates for respiratory diseases were calculated. Data were analysed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Of all 79,272 children within the DNSGP-2, 1.8% were admitted to hospital for any respiratory diagnosis. The highest admission rates per 1000 children were for chronic disease of tonsils and adenoids (12.9); pneumonia and influenza (0.97); and asthma (0.92). Children aged 0-4 years and boys were admitted more frequently. Of children with asthma, 2.3% were admitted for respiratory diseases. For asthma, admission rates varied by urbanisation level: 0.47/1000 children/year in cities with ≤ 30,000 inhabitants, 1.12 for cities with ≥ 50,000 inhabitants, and 1.73 for the three largest cities (p = 0.002). Multivariate logistic regression showed that within two weeks after a GP consultation, younger age (OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.76-0.88) and more severe respiratory diseases (5.55, 95% CI 2.99-8.11) predicted hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: Children in the general population with respiratory diseases (especially asthma) had very low hospital admission rates. In urban regions children were more frequently admitted due to respiratory morbidity. For effectiveness studies in a primary care setting, hospital admission rates should not be used as quality end-point