The impact of spin temperature fluctuations on the 21-cm moments

This paper considers the impact of Lyman-alpha coupling and X-ray heating on the 21-cm brightness-temperature one-point statistics (as predicted by semi-numerical simulations). The X-ray production efficiency is varied over four orders of magnitude and the hardness of the X-ray spectrum is varied from that predicted for high-mass X-ray binaries, to the softer spectrum expected from the hot inter-stellar medium. We find peaks in the redshift evolution of both the variance and skewness associated with the efficiency of X-ray production. The amplitude of the variance is also sensitive to the hardness of the X-ray SED. We find that the relative timing of the coupling and heating phases can be inferred from the redshift extent of a plateau that connects a peak in the variance's evolution associated with Lyman-alpha coupling to the heating peak. Importantly, we find that late X-ray heating would seriously hamper our ability to constrain reionization with the variance. Late X-ray heating also qualitatively alters the evolution of the skewness, providing a clean way to constrain such models. If foregrounds can be removed, we find that LOFAR, MWA and PAPER could constrain reionization and late X-ray heating models with the variance. We find that HERA and SKA (phase 1) will be able to constrain both reionization and heating by measuring the variance using foreground-avoidance techniques. If foregrounds can be removed they will also be able to constrain the nature of Lyman-alpha coupling.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure, 1 table. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Distinguishing models of reionization using future radio observations of 21-cm 1-point statistics

We explore the impact of reionization topology on 21-cm statistics. Four reionization models are presented which emulate large ionized bubbles around over-dense regions (21CMFAST/ global-inside- out), small ionized bubbles in over-dense regions (local-inside-out), large ionized bubbles around under-dense regions (global-outside-in) and small ionized bubbles around under-dense regions (local-outside-in). We show that first-generation instruments might struggle to distinguish global models using the shape of the power spectrum alone. All instruments considered are capable of breaking this degeneracy with the variance, which is higher in outside-in models. Global models can also be distinguished at small scales from a boost in the power spectrum from a positive correlation between the density and neutral-fraction fields in outside-in models. Negative skewness is found to be unique to inside-out models and we find that pre-SKA instruments could detect this feature in maps smoothed to reduce noise errors. The early, mid and late phases of reionization imprint signatures in the brightness-temperature moments, we examine their model dependence and find pre-SKA instruments capable of exploiting these timing constraints in smoothed maps. The dimensional skewness is introduced and is shown to have stronger signatures of the early and mid-phase timing if the inside-out scenario is correct.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, updated to agree with published versio

21-cm signatures of residual HI inside cosmic HII regions during reionization

We investigate the impact of sinks of ionizing radiation on the reionization-era 21-cm signal, focusing on 1-point statistics. We consider sinks in both the intergalactic medium and inside galaxies. At a fixed filling factor of HII regions, sinks will have two main effects on the 21-cm morphology: (i) as inhomogeneous absorbers of ionizing photons they result in smaller and more widespread cosmic HII patches; and (ii) as reservoirs of neutral gas they contribute a non-zero 21-cm signal in otherwise ionized regions. Both effects damp the contrast between neutral and ionized patches during reionization, making detection of the epoch of reionization with 21-cm interferometry more challenging. Here we systematically investigate these effects using the latest semi-numerical simulations. We find that sinks dramatically suppress the peak in the redshift evolution of the variance, corresponding to the midpoint of reionization. As previously predicted, skewness changes sign at midpoint, but the fluctuations in the residual HI suppress a late-time rise. Furthermore, large levels of residual HI dramatically alter the evolution of the variance, skewness and power spectrum from that seen at lower levels. In general, the evolution of the large-scale modes provides a better, cleaner, higher signal-to-noise probe of reionization.Comment: Minor edits to agree with MNRAS published versio

Flexible memory controls sperm competition responses to male Drosophila melanogaster

Males of many species use social cues to predict sperm competition (SC) and tailor their reproductive strategies, such as ejaculate or behavioural investment, accordingly. While these plastic strategies are widespread, the underlying mechanisms remain largely unknown. Plastic behaviour requires individuals to learn and memorize cues associated with environmental change before using this experience to modify behaviour. Drosophila melanogaster respond to an increase in SC threat by extending mating duration after exposure to a rival male. This behaviour shows lag times between environmental change and behavioural response suggestive of acquisition and loss of memory. Considering olfaction is important for a male's ability to assess the SC environment, we hypothesized that an olfactory learning and memory pathway may play a key role in controlling this plastic behaviour. We assessed the role of genes and brain structures known to be involved in learning and memory. We show that SC responses depend on anaesthesia-sensitive memory, specifically the genes rut and amn. We also show that the γ lobes of the mushroom bodies are integral to the control of plastic mating behaviour. These results reveal the genetic and neural properties required for reacting to changes in the SC environment

Quantifying the non-Gaussianity in the EoR 21-cm signal through bispectrum

The epoch of reionization (EoR) 21-cm signal is expected to be highly non-Gaussian in nature and this non-Gaussianity is also expected to evolve with the progressing state of reionization. Therefore the signal will be correlated between different Fourier modes ($k$). The power spectrum will not be able capture this correlation in the signal. We use a higher-order estimator -- the bispectrum -- to quantify this evolving non-Gaussianity. We study the bispectrum using an ensemble of simulated 21-cm signal and with a large variety of $k$ triangles. We observe two competing sources driving the non-Gaussianity in the signal: fluctuations in the neutral fraction ($x_{\rm HI}$) field and fluctuations in the matter density field. We find that the non-Gaussian contribution from these two sources vary, depending on the stage of reionization and on which $k$ modes are being studied. We show that the sign of the bispectrum works as a unique marker to identify which among these two components is driving the non-Gaussianity. We propose that the sign change in the bispectrum, when plotted as a function of triangle configuration $\cos{\theta}$ and at a certain stage of the EoR can be used as a confirmative test for the detection of the 21-cm signal. We also propose a new consolidated way to visualize the signal evolution (with evolving $\overline{x}_{\rm HI}$ or redshift), through the trajectories of the signal in a power spectrum and equilateral bispectrum i.e. $P(k)-B(k, k, k)$ space.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Replaced to match the accepted versio

Food provision for older people receiving home care from the perspectives of home-care workers

Malnutrition is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly among older people. Attention has focused on the inadequacies of food provision in institutions, yet the majority suffering from malnutrition live in the community. The aim of this study was to explore barriers and facilitators to food provision for older people receiving home care. It was a qualitative exploratory study using semi-structured interviews with nine home-care workers in June 2013 employed by independent agencies in a large city in northern England. Data were analysed thematically, based on the principles of grounded theory. Findings showed that significant time pressures limited home-care workers in their ability to socially engage with service users at mealtimes, or provide them with anything other than ready meals. Enabling choice was considered more important than providing a healthy diet, but choice was limited by food availability and reliance on families for shopping. Despite their knowledge of service users and their central role in providing food, home-care workers received little nutritional training and were not involved by healthcare professionals in the management of malnutrition. Despite the rhetoric of individual choice and importance of social engagement and nutrition for health and well-being, nutritional care has been significantly compromised by cuts to social care budgets. The potential role for home-care workers in promoting good nutrition in older people is undervalued and undermined by the lack of recognition, training and time dedicated to food-related care. This has led to a situation whereby good quality food and enjoyable mealtimes are denied to many older people on the basis that they are unaffordable luxuries rather than an integral component of fundamental care. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Modelling physiological deterioration in post-operative patient vital-sign data

Patients who undergo upper-gastrointestinal surgery have a high incidence of post-operative complications, often requiring admission to the intensive care unit several days after surgery. A dataset comprising observational vital-sign data from 171 post-operative patients taking part in a two-phase clinical trial at the Oxford Cancer Centre, was used to explore the trajectory of patients’ vital-sign changes during their stay in the post-operative ward using both univariate and multivariate analyses. A model of normality based vital-sign data from patients who had a “normal” recovery was constructed using a kernel density estimate, and tested with “abnormal” data from patients who deteriorated sufficiently to be re-admitted to the intensive care unit. The vital-sign distributions from “normal” patients were found to vary over time from admission to the post-operative ward to their discharge home, but no significant changes in their distributions were observed from halfway through their stay on the ward to the time of discharge. The model of normality identified patient deterioration when tested with unseen “abnormal” data, suggesting that such techniques may be used to provide early warning of adverse physiological events

Determining the probability of cyanobacterial blooms: the application of Bayesian networks in multiple lake systems

A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the "high hazardous" category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures

The effect of postal questionnaire burden on response rate and answer patterns following admission to intensive care: a randomised controlled trial

Abstract Background The effects of postal questionnaire burden on return rates and answers given are unclear following treatment on an intensive care unit (ICU). We aimed to establish the effects of different postal questionnaire burdens on return rates and answers given. Methods Design: A parallel group randomised controlled trial. We assigned patients by computer-based randomisation to one of two questionnaire packs (Group A and Group B). Setting: Patients from 26 ICUs in the United Kingdom. Inclusion criteria: Patients who had received at least 24 h of level 3 care and were 16 years of age or older. Patients did not know that there were different questionnaire burdens. The study included 18,490 patients. 12,170 were eligible to be sent a questionnaire pack at 3 months. We sent 12,105 questionnaires (6112 to group A and 5993 to group B). Interventions: The Group A pack contained demographic and EuroQol group 5 Dimensions 3 level (EQ-5D-3 L) questionnaires, making four questionnaire pages. The Group B pack also contained the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS) and the Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Check List-Civilian (PCL-C) questionnaires, making eight questionnaire pages in total. Main outcome measure: Questionnaire return rate 3 months after ICU discharge by group. Results In group A, 2466/6112 (40.3%) participants responded at 3 months. In group B 2315/ 5993 (38.6%) participants responded (difference 1.7% CI for difference 0–3.5% p = 0.053). Group A reported better functionality than group B in the EQ-5D-3 L mobility (41% versus 37% reporting no problems p = 0.003) and anxiety/depression (59% versus 55% reporting no problems p = 0.017) domains. Conclusions In survivors of intensive care, questionnaire burden had no effect on return rates. However, questionnaire burden affected answers to the same questionnaire (EQ-5D-3 L). Trial registration ISRCTN69112866 (assigned 02/05/2006)