Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Foveal hypoplasia grading with optical coherence tomography: agreement and challenges across experience levels

Background/Objectives: The diagnosis and prognosis of arrested foveal development or foveal hypoplasia (FH) can be made using the Leicester grading system for FH and optical coherence tomography (OCT). In clinical practice, ophthalmologists and ophthalmic health professionals with varying experience consult patients with FH; however, to date, the FH grading system has only been validated amongst experts. We compare the inter-grader and intra-grade agreement of healthcare professionals against expert consensus across all grades of FH. Methods: Handheld and table-mounted OCT images (n = 341) were graded independently at a single centre by experts (n = 3) with over six years of experience and “novice” medical and allied health professionals (n = 5) with less than three years of experience. Sensitivity, specificity, and Cohen’s kappa scores were calculated for each grader, and expert vs. novice performance was compared. Results: All graders showed high sensitivity (median 97% (IQR: 94–99)) and specificity (median 94% (IQR: 90–95)) in identifying the presence or absence of FH. No significant difference was seen in specificity between expert and novice graders, but experts had significantly greater diagnostic sensitivity (median difference = 5.3%, H = 5.00, p = 0.025). Expert graders had the highest agreement with the ground truth and novice graders showed great variability in grading uncommon grades, such as atypical FH. The proposed causes of misclassification included macular decentring in handheld OCT scans in children. Conclusions: Ophthalmologists of varying experience and allied health professionals can accurately identify FH using handheld and table-mounted OCT images. FH identification and paediatric OCT interpretation can be improved in wider ophthalmic clinical settings through the education of ophthalmic staff

Mechanical ventilatory constraints during incremental cycle exercise in human pregnancy: implications for respiratory sensation

The aim of this study was to identify the physiological mechanisms of exertional respiratory discomfort (breathlessness) in pregnancy by comparing ventilatory (breathing pattern, airway function, operating lung volumes, oesophageal pressure (Poes)-derived indices of respiratory mechanics) and perceptual (breathlessness intensity) responses to incremental cycle exercise in 15 young, healthy women in the third trimester (TM3; between 34 and 38 weeks gestation) and again 4–5 months postpartum (PP). During pregnancy, resting inspiratory capacity (IC) increased (P < 0.01) and end-expiratory lung volume decreased (P < 0.001), with no associated change in total lung capacity (TLC) or static respiratory muscle strength. This permitted greater tidal volume (VT) expansion throughout exercise in TM3, while preserving the relationship between contractile respiratory muscle effort (tidal Poes swing expressed as a percentage of maximum inspiratory pressure (PImax)) and thoracic volume displacement (VT expressed as a percentage of vital capacity) and between breathlessness and ventilation (V̇E). At the highest equivalent work rate (HEWR = 128 ± 5 W) in TM3 compared with PP: V̇E, tidal Poes/PImax and breathlessness intensity ratings increased by 10.2 l min−1 (P < 0.001), 8.8%PImax (P < 0.05) and 0.9 Borg units (P < 0.05), respectively. Pulmonary resistance was not increased at rest or during exercise at the HEWR in TM3, despite marked increases in mean tidal inspiratory and expiratory flow rates, suggesting increased bronchodilatation. Dynamic mechanical constraints on VT expansion (P < 0.05) with associated increased breathlessness intensity ratings (P < 0.05) were observed near peak exercise in TM3 compared with PP. In conclusion: (1) pregnancy-induced increases in exertional breathlessness reflected the normal awareness of increased V̇E and contractile respiratory muscle effort; (2) mechanical adaptations of the respiratory system, including recruitment of resting IC and increased bronchodilatation, accommodated the increased VT while preserving effort–displacement and breathlessness–V̇E relationships; and (3) dynamic mechanical ventilatory constraints contributed to respiratory discomfort near the limits of tolerance in late gestation

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

Abstract Background This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery. Results A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498). Conclusion There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT. </jats:sec