The cascading impacts of livestock grazing in upland ecosystems: a 10-year experiment

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank The Woodland Trust, Scotland for permission to use the Glen Finglas Estate. Sally Burgess, Timothy Conner, Charlie Gardner, Ian Joyce,Fi Leckie, Elaine McEwan, Ruth Mitchell, Gabor Pozsgai, Gina Prior and others assisted with the collection and sorting of samples at different stages of the project. S. M. Redpath, R. J. Pakeman, P. Dennis and D. M. Evans designed the study; D. M. Evans, N.Villar, N. A. Littlewood, S. A. Evans and J. Skartveit collected the data; D. M. Evans and N. Villar analyzed the data; D. M. Evans and N. Villar co-wrote as joint-first authors the first draft of the manuscript, and all authors contributed substantially to revisions.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Recruitment Variability in North Atlantic Cod and Match-Mismatch Dynamics

Background Fisheries exploitation, habitat destruction, and climate are important drivers of variability in recruitment success. Understanding variability in recruitment can reveal mechanisms behind widespread decline in the abundance of key species in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. For fish populations, the match-mismatch theory hypothesizes that successful recruitment is a function of the timing and duration of larval fish abundance and prey availability. However, the underlying mechanisms of match-mismatch dynamics and the factors driving spatial differences between high and low recruitment remain poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings We used empirical observations of larval fish abundance, a mechanistic individual-based model, and a reanalysis of ocean temperature data from 1960 to 2002 to estimate the survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua). From the model, we quantified how survival rates changed during the warmest and coldest years at four important cod spawning sites in the North Atlantic. The modeled difference in survival probability was not large for any given month between cold or warm years. However, the cumulative effect of higher growth rates and survival through the entire spawning season in warm years was substantial with 308%, 385%, 154%, and 175% increases in survival for Georges Bank, Iceland, North Sea, and Lofoten cod stocks, respectively. We also found that the importance of match-mismatch dynamics generally increased with latitude. Conclusions/Significance Our analyses indicate that a key factor for enhancing survival is the duration of the overlap between larval and prey abundance and not the actual timing of the peak abundance. During warm years, the duration of the overlap between larval fish and their prey is prolonged due to an early onset of the spring bloom. This prolonged season enhances cumulative growth and survival, leading to a greater number of large individuals with enhanced potential for survival to recruitment

The red-sky enigma over Svalbard in December 2002

On December 6, 2002, during winter darkness, an extraordinary event occured in the sky as viewed from Longyearbyen (78°N, 15°E), Svalbard, Norway. At 07:30 UT the South - East sky was surprisingly lit up in a deep red colour. The light increased in intensity and spread out across the sky, and at 10:00 UT the illumination was observed to reach the zenith. The event died out at about 12:30 UT. Spectral measurements from the Auroral Station in Adventdalen confirm that the light was scattered sunlight. Even though the Sun was between 11.8 and 14.6 degrees below the horizon during the event, the measured intensities of scattered light on the southern horizon from the scanning photometers coincided with the rise and setting of the Sun. Calculations of actual heights, including refraction and atmospheric screening, indicate that the event most likely is scattered solar light from a target below the horizon. This is also confirmed by the OSIRIS instrument onboard the Odin satellite. The deduced height profile indicates that the scattering target is located 20-25 km up in the Stratosphere at a latitude close to 73 - 75°N, South - East of Longyearbyen. The temperatures in this region were found to be low enough for Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSC) to be formed. The target was also identified as PSC by the LIDAR systems at the Koldewey Station in Ny-Ålesund (79°N, 12°E). The event is most likely caused by solar illuminated type II Polar Stratospheric Clouds that scattered light towards Svalbard. Two types of scenarios are presented to explain how light is scattered