Statistical models for over-dispersion in the frequency of peaks over threshold data for a flow series.

In a peaks over threshold analysis of a series of river flows, a sufficiently high threshold is used to extract the peaks of independent flood events. This paper reviews existing, and proposes new, statistical models for both the annual counts of such events and the process of event peak times. The most common existing model for the process of event times is a homogeneous Poisson process. This model is motivated by asymptotic theory. However, empirical evidence suggests that it is not the most appropriate model, since it implies that the mean and variance of the annual counts are the same, whereas the counts appear to be overdispersed, i.e., have a larger variance than mean. This paper describes how the homogeneous Poisson process can be extended to incorporate time variation in the rate at which events occur and so help to account for overdispersion in annual counts through the use of regression and mixed models. The implications of these new models on the implied probability distribution of the annual maxima are also discussed. The models are illustrated using a historical flow series from the River Thames at Kingston

Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.Comment: 27 pp, 4 figures. A lightly revised version of a chapter in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistics. Version 2 has minor clarifications and an additional referenc

Combining estimates of interest in prognostic modelling studies after multiple imputation: current practice and guidelines

Background: Multiple imputation (MI) provides an effective approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies, as it can properly account for the missing data uncertainty. The multiply imputed datasets are each analysed using standard prognostic modelling techniques to obtain the estimates of interest. The estimates from each imputed dataset are then combined into one overall estimate and variance, incorporating both the within and between imputation variability. Rubin's rules for combining these multiply imputed estimates are based on asymptotic theory. The resulting combined estimates may be more accurate if the posterior distribution of the population parameter of interest is better approximated by the normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be appropriate for all the parameters of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies, such as predicted survival probabilities and model performance measures. Methods: Guidelines for combining the estimates of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies are provided. A literature review is performed to identify current practice for combining such estimates in prognostic modelling studies. Results: Methods for combining all reported estimates after MI were not well reported in the current literature. Rubin's rules without applying any transformations were the standard approach used, when any method was stated. Conclusion: The proposed simple guidelines for combining estimates after MI may lead to a wider and more appropriate use of MI in future prognostic modelling studies

Eosinophilic gastroenteritis in a young girl – long term remission under Montelukast

BACKGROUND: Eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders are an emerging disease entity characterized by eosinophilic infiltration of the intestinal wall. Oral steroids can be still considered as first line treatment. Unfortunately relapses are quite common. Usually long term low-dose prednisone or immunosuppressive therapy is required, which is especially problematic in young patients. Thus a reliable steroid sparing agent with low side effects suitable for long term use is needed. There are strong hints to a similar pathophysiology of eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders to that of asthma. Indeed leukotriene D4 plays an important role in the recruitment of eosinophils into the intestinal tissue causing damage. This patho-mechanism provides the rationale for the treatment with a leukotriene D4 receptor antagonist. Recently there have been first reports about successful short term use of Montelukast in eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders. CASE PRESENTATION: We report the case of a 17 year old girl with a long history of severe abdominal complaints leading to several hospitalizations in the past. Mimicking the picture of an intestinal tuberculosis she received an anti mycobacterial treatment without any success. Marked eosinophilia in blood, ascites and tissue samples of the intestinal tract finally lead to the diagnosis eosinophilic gastroenteritis. Tapering off prednisone caused another severe episode of abdominal pain. At that point leukotriene antagonist Montelukast was started at a dose of 10 mg once daily. Steroids could be tapered off completely within six weeks. The patient has been free of symptoms for over two years by now. Routine examinations, blood tests and endoscopy have rendered regular results. So far no side effects were noted. CONCLUSION: Here report about successful long term remission of eosinophilic gastroenteritis under Montelukast. Further randomized control trials are required to asses the full benefits of Montelukast therapy in the whole spectrum of eosinophilic gastrointestinal disorders

Earnings Benefits of Tulsa's Pre-K Program for Different Income Groups

This paper estimates future adult earnings effects associated with a universal pre-K program in Tulsa, Oklahoma. These informed projections help to compensate for the lack of long-term data on universal pre-K programs, while using metrics that relate test scores to valued social benefits. Combining test-score data from the fall of 2006 and recent findings by Chetty et al. (forthcoming) on the relationship between kindergarten test scores and adult earnings, we generate plausible projections of adult earnings effects and a partial cost-benefit analysis of the Tulsa pre-K program. We find substantial projected earnings benefits for program participants who differ by income and by program dosage. The dollar effects and benefit-cost ratios are similar across groups, with benefit-to-cost ratios of approximately 3 or 4 to 1. Because we only consider adult earnings benefits, actual benefit-cost ratios are likely higher, especially for disadvantaged children

Multiomic Signatures of Traffic-Related Air Pollution in London Reveal Potential Short-Term Perturbations in Gut Microbiome-Related Pathways

This randomized crossover study investigated the metabolic and mRNA alterations associated with exposure to high and low traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) in 50 participants who were either healthy or were diagnosed with chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (COPD) or ischemic heart disease (IHD). For the first time, this study combined transcriptomics and serum metabolomics measured in the same participants over multiple time points (2 h before, and 2 and 24 h after exposure) and over two contrasted exposure regimes to identify potential multiomic modifications linked to TRAP exposure. With a multivariate normal model, we identified 78 metabolic features and 53 mRNA features associated with at least one TRAP exposure. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emerged as the dominant pollutant, with 67 unique associated metabolomic features. Pathway analysis and annotation of metabolic features consistently indicated perturbations in the tryptophan metabolism associated with NO2 exposure, particularly in the gut-microbiome-associated indole pathway. Conditional multiomics networks revealed complex and intricate mechanisms associated with TRAP exposure, with some effects persisting 24 h after exposure. Our findings indicate that exposure to TRAP can alter important physiological mechanisms even after a short-term exposure of a 2 h walk. We describe for the first time a potential link between NO2 exposure and perturbation of the microbiome-related pathways