Impacts of land use and population density on seasonal surface water quality using a modified geographically weighted regression

As an important regulator of pollutants in overland flow and interflow, land use has become an essential research component for determining the relationships between surface water quality and pollution sources. This study investigated the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models to identify the impact of land use and population density on surface water quality in the Wen-Rui Tang River watershed of eastern China. A manual variable excluding-selecting method was explored to resolve multicollinearity issues. Standard regression coefficient analysis coupled with cluster analysis was introduced to determine which variable had the greatest influence on water quality. Results showed that: (1) Impact of land use on water quality varied with spatial and seasonal scales. Both positive and negative effects for certain land-use indicators were found in different subcatchments. (2) Urban land was the dominant factor influencing N, P and chemical oxygen demand (COD) in highly urbanized regions, but the relationship was weak as the pollutants were mainly from point sources. Agricultural land was the primary factor influencing N and P in suburban and rural areas; the relationship was strong as the pollutants were mainly from agricultural surface runoff. Subcatchments located in suburban areas were identified with urban land as the primary influencing factor during the wet season while agricultural land was identified as a more prevalent influencing factor during the dry season. (3) Adjusted R2 values in OLS models using the manual variable excluding-selecting method averaged 14.3% higher than using stepwise multiple linear regressions. However, the corresponding GWR models had adjusted R2 ~59.2% higher than the optimal OLS models, confirming that GWR models demonstrated better prediction accuracy. Based on our findings, water resource protection policies should consider site-specific land-use conditions within each watershed to optimize mitigation strategies for contrasting land-use characteristics and seasonal variations

The dementia and disability project in Thai elderly: rational, design, methodology and early results

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A strong inverse relationship of functional limitation and socioeconomic status has been established in western ageing society. Functional limitation can be related to chronic diseases, disuse, cognitive decline, and ageing. Among chronic diseases in the Thai population, cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes, and arthritis are common. These factors are known to contribute to disability and poor quality of life in the elder population. Neuropsychiatric problems, cognitive decline, dementia, and cultural issues in elderly people also can alter the quality of life of the elderly.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Dementia and Disability Project in Thai Elderly (DDP) aims at comprehensively assessing community dwelling Thai elderly to understand the relationship between disability and motor function, neuropsychiatric symptoms, cognitive function, and chronic diseases. The DDP is the first study to look at the prevalence and etiology of dementia and of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in Thai elders and to explore the relationship of cognition, disability, small vessel diseases and cortical degeneration with neuroimaging in Thai elderly people. 1998 Thai elders were screened in 2004–2006 and diagnosed as having MCI or dementia. 223 elders with MCI or dementia and cognitively normal elderly had brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or at baseline. 319 elders from the 3 groups had blood tests to investigate the risks and possible etiologies of dementia including genotyping at baseline.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean age of elders in this study is 69.51(SD=6.71, min=60, max=95) years. 689(34.9%) are men and 1284(65.1%) are women. Mean body weight was 58.36(SD=11.20) kgs. The regression model reveals that performance on gait and balance and serum triglyceride predicts activity of daily living performance (adjusted r² = 0.280, f=2.644, p=0.003). The majority of abnormal gait in Thai elders was lower level gait disturbance. Only 1.5% (29/1952) had highest level gait disorders. 39.5% of 1964 subjects were free of chronic diseases. Treatment gap (indicating those who have untreated or inadequate treatment) of diabetes mellitus and hypertension in Thai elders in this study was 37% and 55.5% respectively. 62.6% of Thai elders have ApoE3E3 allele. Prevalence of positive ApoE4 gene in this study is 22.85%. 38.6% of Thai elders who had MRI brain study have moderate to severe white matter lesions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The large and comprehensive set of measurements in DDP allows a wide-ranging explanation of the functional and clinical features to be investigated in relation to white matter lesions or cortical atrophy of the brain in Thai elderly population. An almost 2 year follow up was made available to those with MCI and dementia and some of the cognitively normal elderly. The longitudinal design will provide great understanding of the possible contributors to disability in the elderly and to the progression of cognitive decline in Thai elders.</p