1,791 research outputs found

    Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenvectors

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    Recent studies have shown that real-valued principal component analysis can be applied to earthquake fault systems for forecasting and prediction. In addition, theoretical analysis indicates that earthquake stresses may obey a wave-like equation, having solutions with inverse frequencies for a given fault similar to those that characterize the time intervals between the largest events on the fault. It is therefore desirable to apply complex principal component analysis to develop earthquake forecast algorithms. In this paper we modify the Pattern Informatics method of earthquake forecasting to take advantage of the wave-like properties of seismic stresses and utilize the Hilbert transform to create complex eigenvectors out of measured time series. We show that Pattern Informatics analyses using complex eigenvectors create short-term forecast hot-spot maps that differ from hot-spot maps created using only real-valued data and suggest methods of analyzing the differences and calculating the information gain.Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure. Submitted to Tectonophysics on 30 August 200

    Sympatric speciation in an age-structured population living on a lattice

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    A square lattice is introduced into the Penna model for biological aging in order to study the evolution of diploid sexual populations under certain conditions when one single locus in the individual's genome is considered as identifier of species. The simulation results show, after several generations, the flourishing and coexistence of two separate species in the same environment, i.e., one original species splits up into two on the same territory (sympatric speciation). As well, the mortalities obtained are in a good agreement with the Gompertz law of exponential increase of mortality with age.Comment: 5 pages including 3 encapsulated postscript (*.eps) figures; To appear in European Physical Journal

    Near mean-field behavior in the generalized Burridge-Knopoff earthquake model with variable range stress transfer

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    Simple models of earthquake faults are important for understanding the mechanisms for their observed behavior in nature, such as Gutenberg-Richter scaling. Because of the importance of long-range interactions in an elastic medium, we generalize the Burridge-Knopoff slider-block model to include variable range stress transfer. We find that the Burridge-Knopoff model with long-range stress transfer exhibits qualitatively different behavior than the corresponding long-range cellular automata models and the usual Burridge-Knopoff model with nearest-neighbor stress transfer, depending on how quickly the friction force weakens with increasing velocity. Extensive simulations of quasiperiodic characteristic events, mode-switching phenomena, ergodicity, and waiting-time distributions are also discussed. Our results are consistent with the existence of a mean-field critical point and have important implications for our understanding of earthquakes and other driven dissipative systems.Comment: 24 pages 12 figures, revised version for Phys. Rev.

    Breaking a one-dimensional chain: fracture in 1 + 1 dimensions

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    The breaking rate of an atomic chain stretched at zero temperature by a constant force can be calculated in a quasiclassical approximation by finding the localized solutions ("bounces") of the equations of classical dynamics in imaginary time. We show that this theory is related to the critical cracks of stressed solids, because the world lines of the atoms in the chain form a two-dimensional crystal, and the bounce is a crack configuration in (unstable) mechanical equilibrium. Thus the tunneling time, Action, and breaking rate in the limit of small forces are determined by the classical results of Griffith. For the limit of large forces we give an exact bounce solution that describes the quantum fracture and classical crack close to the limit of mechanical stability. This limit can be viewed as a critical phenomenon for which we establish a Levanyuk-Ginzburg criterion of weakness of fluctuations, and propose a scaling argument for the critical regime. The post-tunneling dynamics is understood by the analytic continuation of the bounce solutions to real time.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

    Avalanches in Breakdown and Fracture Processes

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    We investigate the breakdown of disordered networks under the action of an increasing external---mechanical or electrical---force. We perform a mean-field analysis and estimate scaling exponents for the approach to the instability. By simulating two-dimensional models of electric breakdown and fracture we observe that the breakdown is preceded by avalanche events. The avalanches can be described by scaling laws, and the estimated values of the exponents are consistent with those found in mean-field theory. The breakdown point is characterized by a discontinuity in the macroscopic properties of the material, such as conductivity or elasticity, indicative of a first order transition. The scaling laws suggest an analogy with the behavior expected in spinodal nucleation.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. E, corrected typo in authors name, no changes to the pape

    Modelling circumstellar discs with 3D radiation hydrodynamics

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    We present results from combining a grid-based radiative transfer code with a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics code to produce a flexible system for modelling radiation hydrodynamics. We use a benchmark model of a circumstellar disc to determine a robust method for constructing a gridded density distribution from SPH particles. The benchmark disc is then used to determine the accuracy of the radiative transfer results. We find that the SED and the temperature distribution within the disc are sensitive to the representation of the disc inner edge, which depends critically on both the grid and SPH resolution. The code is then used to model a circumstellar disc around a T-Tauri star. As the disc adjusts towards equilibrium vertical motions in the disc are induced resulting in scale height enhancements which intercept radiation from the central star. Vertical transport of radiation enables these perturbations to influence the mid-plane temperature of the disc. The vertical motions decay over time and the disc ultimately reaches a state of simultaneous hydrostatic and radiative equilibrium.Comment: MNRAS accepted; 15 pages; 17 figures, 4 in colou

    A model for the distribution of aftershock waiting times

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    In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the generalized Omori's law for the decay of aftershocks is used as a time-dependent rate in the NHP process. The analytically derived distribution of inter-occurrence times is applied to several major aftershock sequences in California to confirm the validity of the proposed hypothesis.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

    Fluctuations and correlations in sandpile models

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    We perform numerical simulations of the sandpile model for non-vanishing driving fields hh and dissipation rates ϵ\epsilon. Unlike simulations performed in the slow driving limit, the unique time scale present in our system allows us to measure unambiguously response and correlation functions. We discuss the dynamic scaling of the model and show that fluctuation-dissipation relations are not obeyed in this system.Comment: 5 pages, latex, 4 postscript figure
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