Nature and dynamics of climate variability in the uganda cattle corridor

The study was conducted in the districts of Nakaseke and Nakasongola stratified into four farming systems of crop dominancy, pastoralists, mixed crop and livestock and fishing. The study was guided by two research questions: (1) how do community residents perceive climate change/variability? (2) What is the trend and nature of climate variability and how does it compare with people’s perceptions? Ninety eight percent (98%) of the respondents reported that the routine patterns of weather and climate had changed in the last 5 to 10 years and it has become less predictable with sunshine hours being extended and rainfall amounts being reduced. This compared well with the analyzed secondary data. Over 78% respondents perceived climate change and variability to be caused by tree cutting other than the known scientific reasons like increase in industrial fumes or increased fossil fuel use. Climate data showed that over the period 1961 to 2010 the number of dry spells within a rainfall season had increased with the most significant increase observed in the first rainfall season of March to May as compared to the season of September to November. The first dry season of June/July to August is short while the second dry season of December to February is long during the study period. The two rainfall seasons of March to May and September to November seem to be merging into one major season from May to November. Temperature data shows a significant increasing trend in mean annual temperatures with the most increase observed in the mean annual minimum temperatures than the maximum temperatures.Key words: Climate variability, community perceptions, Uganda cattle corridor, dry spells

Characterising food insecurity in pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Uganda using a consumption coping strategy index

We explore the utility of a consumption coping strategy index (CSI) in characterising and assessing the factors influencing household food insecurity. We assessed 53 pastoral and 197 agro-pastoral households in Nakasongola and Nakaseke districts of Uganda, examining the use of 27 consumption coping strategies over a recall time of two 30-day periods, one at the start of a dry season in 2012 and one at the start of a rainy season in 2013. Four categorical food insecurity status measures were established - food secure (CSI 0 to 5) and mildly (CSI 6 to 20), moderately (CSI 21 to 42) and extremely (CSI >42) food insecure. For the dry season, the mean CSI was 29.4 ± 2.59 and 33.6 % of households were food secure, while for the rains, mean CSI was 33.1 ± 2.30 and 14.0 % of households were food secure. The combination of livelihood system, land holdings, number of livestock owned and belonging to a social network explained 9.4 % to 10 % of the variance in household food insecurity for agro-pastoralists, but variance for pastoralists was not explained by these factors. While the only highly significant factor associated with increasing household food insecurity in the dry season was low landholdings, in the rainy season, it was pastoral livelihood, low livestock holdings for agro-pastoralists and non-involvement in social networks. While our model identified a number of factors important in describing household food insecurity, it explained only about 10 % of the variance

Characteristics and changes in SON rainfall over Uganda (1901-2013)

This study investigated the characteristics and changes in September-November (SON) rainfall over Uganda. The dominant mode of variability of SON rainfall was identified by performing Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis, using rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) for the period 1901 to 2013. Results indicate that the dominant mode of variability of SON rainfall exhibits a unimodal pattern, explaining 50.2% of the total variance. Mann-Kendall analysis was deployed to examine sudden changes in SON rainfall over the country. The findings show that the abrupt change in SON rainfall occurred in 1994. Further analysis reveal that SON rainfall over Uganda has a correlation pattern with the sea surface temperature (SST) over Indian, which depicts the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Positive correlation is exhibited in the western IOD subregion, while negative correlation is shown in the southeastern IOD sub-region. Further study of the both driest and wettest years during the investigated time span indicate that throughout the wettest year, there were positive anomalies in the western sub-region, contrary to the driest year, when same subregion observed distinct negative anomalies. This illustrates that the positive phase of IOD enhances SON rainfall over Uganda, as opposed to the negative phase which inhibits SON rainfall. The evolution of the IOD can therefore be monitored for the improvement of SON rainfall forecasts, especially over Uganda so as to avoid the losses associated with weather extremes

Characterization of Historical Seasonal and Annual Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Selected Climatological Homogenous Rainfall Zones of Uganda

There is general lack of scientific consensus on the trend and distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature in Uganda. This study used both observational and AgMerra rainfall and temperature data for the period 1980-2010 to characterize the trend and variability in seasonal and annual rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures across 12 different rainfall homogenous zones (K, H, ME, L, J, F, MW, D, E, A1, A2, and I) of Uganda. Trends analysis was done using regression method, while coefficient of variation and ANOVA techniques were used to analyze variability. The results show statistically significant increasing trends (P ≤ 0.05) in annual rainfall amount in zone A1 and a declining trend for zone K (P<0.05)

Evaluation of rainfall simulations over Uganda in CORDEX Regional Climate Models

The study evaluates the ability of ten regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate the present day rainfall over Uganda within the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the period 1990-2008. The models’ ability to reproduce the space-time variability of annual, seasonal and interannual rainfall has been diagnosed. A series of metrics have been employed to quantify the RCM-simulated rainfall pattern discrepancies and biases compared to three gridded observational datasets. It is found that most models underestimate the annual rainfall over the country; however, the seasonality of rainfall is properly reproduced by the RCMs with a bimodal component over the major part of the country and unimodal component over the North. Models reproduce the interannual variability of the dry season (December-February) but fail with the long and short rains seasons even if the ENSO signal is correctly simulated by most models. In many aspects, the UQAM-CRCM5 RCM is found to perform best over the region. Overall, the ensemble mean of the 10 RCMs reproduces the rainfall climatology over Uganda with reasonable skill.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Gendered Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change among Local Communities Living around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda

Climate change affects both men and women which, in turn, shapes their varied and contrasting perceptions of climate variability and change. This paper examined the gendered perceptions of climate variability and change among local communities in Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda.The objectives are threefold: - identify climatic shocks faced by the local communities; examine the perceptions of men and women of climate variability and change; and to compare their perceptions with empirical meteorological data. This study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods, with data collected from 215 respondents using survey, interviews and focused group discussions. From the findings, indicators of climate variability and change included reduced flooding events, occurrence of human diseases, increasing crop pests and diseases, dry spells and intensity of rains. There was increasing significant temperatures while rainfall was declining. Both male and female significantly associated with increasing temperatures and reduced flooding events. While climatic shocks affected both males and females, the impact was more pronounced depending on distinct livelihood activities and roles and responsibilities undertaken. The study concluded that people’s perceptions of climate change should be taken on by the government and integrated in the national climate programs that support people’s livelihoods and survival mechanisms

Characterization of Historical Seasonal and Annual Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Selected Climatological Homogenous Rainfall Zones of Uganda

There is general lack of scientific consensus on the trend and distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature in Uganda. This study used both observational and AgMerra rainfall and temperature data for the period 1980-2010 to characterize the trend and variability in seasonal and annual rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures across 12 different rainfall homogenous zones (K, H, ME, L, J, F, MW, D, E, A1, A2, and I) of Uganda. Trends analysis was done using regression method, while coefficient of variation and ANOVA techniques were used to analyze variability. The results show statistically significant increasing trends (P ? 0.05) in annual rainfall amount in zone A1 and a declining trend for zone K (P<0.05)