Bayesian Updating of Earthquake Vulnerability Functions with Application to Mortality Rates

Vulnerability functions often rely on data from expert opinion, post-earthquake investigations, or analytical simulations. Combining the information can be particularly challenging. In this paper a Bayesian statistical framework is presented to combining disparate information. The framework is illustrated through application to earthquake mortality data obtained from the 2005 Pakistan earthquake and from PAGER. Three different models are tested including an exponential, a combination of Bernoulli and exponential and Bernoulli and gamma fit to model respectively zero and non-zero mortality rates. A novel Bayesian model for the Bernoulli exponential and Bernoulli-gamma probability densities is introduced. It is found that the exponential distribution represents the zero casualties very poorly. The Bernoulli-exponential and Bernoulli-gamma models capture the data for both the zero and non-zero mortality rates. It is also shown that the Bernoulli-gamma model fits the 2005 Pakistan data the best and has uncertainties that are smaller than either the ones from the 2005 Pakistan data or the PAGER data.This research was partially supported by the Global Earthquake Model, by the National Science Foundation Grant CMMI 1233694 and the Shah Family Graduate Fellowship

Assembly-Based Vulnerability of Buildings and Its Use in Performance Evaluation

Assembly-based vulnerability (ABV) is a framework for evaluating the seismic vulnerability and performance of buildings on a building-specific basis. It utilizes the damage to individual building components and accounts for the building's seismic setting, structural and nonstructural design and use. A simulation approach to implementing ABV first applies a ground motion time history to a structural model to determine structural response. The response is applied to assembly fragility functions to simulate damage to each structural and nonstructural element in the building, and to its contents. Probabilistic construction cost estimation and scheduling are used to estimate repair cost and loss-of-use duration as random variables. It also provides a framework for accumulating post-earthquake damage observations in a statistically systematic and consistent manner. The framework and simulation approach are novel in that they are fully probabilistic, address damage at a highly detailed and building-specific level, and do not rely extensively on expert opinion. ABV is illustrated using an example pre-Northridge welded-steel-moment-frame office building

The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault

We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.Comment: Final version of the published paper, with an erratum and an unpublished appendix with some proof

Damage detection by using FBGs and strain field pattern recognition techniques

A novel methodology for damage detection and location in structures is proposed. The methodology is based on strain measurements and consists in the development of strain field pattern recognition techniques. The aforementioned are based on PCA (principal component analysis) and damage indices (T 2 and Q). We propose the use of fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) as strain sensor

Bioaccessibility of selenium after human ingestion in relation to its chemical species and compartmentalization in maize

International audienceSelenium is a micronutrient needed by all living organisms including humans, but often present in low concentration in food with possible deficiency. From another side, at higher concentrations in soils as observed in seleniferous regions of the world, and in function of its chemical species, Se can also induce (eco)toxicity. Root Se uptake was therefore studied in function of its initial form for maize (Zea mays L.), a plant widely cultivated for human and animal food over the world. Se phytotoxicity and compartmentalization were studied in different aerial plant tissues. For the first time, Se oral human bioaccessibility after ingestion was assessed for the main Se species (SeIV and SeVI) with the BARGE ex vivo test in maize seeds (consumed by humans), and in stems and leaves consumed by animals. Corn seedlings were cultivated in hydroponic conditions supplemented with 1 mg L−1 of selenium (SeIV, SeVI, Control) for 4 months. Biomass, Se concentration, and bioaccessibility were measured on harvested plants. A reduction in plant biomass was observed under Se treatments compared to control, suggesting its phytotoxicity. This plant biomass reduction was higher for selenite species than selenate, and seed was the main affected compartment compared to control. Selenium compartmentalization study showed that for selenate species, a preferential accumulation was observed in leaves, whereas selenite translocation was very limited toward maize aerial parts, except in the seeds where selenite concentrations are generally high. Selenium oral bioaccessibility after ingestion fluctuated from 49 to 89 % according to the considered plant tissue and Se species. Whatever the tissue, selenate appeared as the most human bioaccessible form. A potential Se toxicity was highlighted for people living in seleniferous regions, this risk being enhanced by the high Se bioaccessibility

How to use the world's scarce selenium resources efficiently to increase the selenium concentration in food

The world's rare selenium resources need to be managed carefully. Selenium is extracted as a by-product of copper mining and there are no deposits that can be mined for selenium alone. Selenium has unique properties as a semi-conductor, making it of special value to industry, but it is also an essential nutrient for humans and animals and may promote plant growth and quality. Selenium deficiency is regarded as a major health problem for 0.5 to 1 billion people worldwide, while an even larger number may consume less selenium than required for optimal protection against cancer, cardiovascular diseases and severe infectious diseases including HIV disease. Efficient recycling of selenium is difficult. Selenium is added in some commercial fertilizers, but only a small proportion is taken up by plants and much of the remainder is lost for future utilization. Large biofortification programmes with selenium added to commercial fertilizers may therefore be a fortification method that is too wasteful to be applied to large areas of our planet. Direct addition of selenium compounds to food (process fortification) can be undertaken by the food industry. If selenomethionine is added directly to food, however, oxidation due to heat processing needs to be avoided. New ways to biofortify food products are needed, and it is generally observed that there is less wastage if selenium is added late in the production chain rather than early. On these bases we have proposed adding selenium-enriched, sprouted cereal grain during food processing as an efficient way to introduce this nutrient into deficient diets. Selenium is a non-renewable resource. There is now an enormous wastage of selenium associated with large-scale mining and industrial processing. We recommend that this must be changed and that much of the selenium that is extracted should be stockpiled for use as a nutrient by future generations