Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

Keywords JEL Classification High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of nonconventional oil, including the role of learning-by-doing in driving down costs. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of both learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying bitumen which can then be upgraded into synthetic crude oil, a substitute to conventional oil. The results show large uncertainties in the future costs of supplying bitumen from Canadian oil sands deposits, with a 90% confidence interval of $8 to$12 in 2025, and $7 to$15 in 2050 (2005 US$). The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined, with the minimum supply cost, the learning rate, and the depletion curve exponent having the largest influence. Over time, the influence of the learning rate on the supply costs decreases, while the influence of the depletion curve exponent increases. Climate change; Non-conventional oil; Exhaustible resources; Technological change; Uncertainty

The danger of subverting students’ views in schools

This paper is firmly grounded in the position that engaging with students’ voices in schools is central to the development of inclusive practices. It explores the tensions that can be created when efforts are made to engage with students’ voices in relation to their experiences of learning and teaching. An example from a three-year research and development project, which worked alongside teachers to use students’ voices as a way of developing inclusive practices, is used to illustrate these tensions. This project, though showing that students’ voices can be a powerful means for understanding learning and teaching in schools, also encountered challenges with these processes. This paper focuses on the experiences of one secondary school which (possibly inadvertently) subverted and undermined students’ voice initiatives and explores the potential negative impacts of this on individual students, on students as a whole, and on teacher development. By doing this, suggestions as to how such tensions can be avoided in schools are offered, with the aim being to allow a genuine engagement with the views of students

Emerging treatment options for the management of brain metastases in patients with HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer.

The widespread use of trastuzumab in the past decade has led to a significant and measureable improvement in the survival of patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) overexpressing breast cancer, and in many ways has redefined the natural history of this aggressive breast cancer subtype. Historically, survival in patients with HER2-positive disease was dictated by the systemic disease course, and what appears to be the central nervous system (CNS) tropism associated with HER2-amplified tumors was not clinically evident. With improved systemic control and prolonged survival, the incidence of brain metastases has increased, and CNS disease, often in the setting of well-controlled extracranial disease, is proving to be an increasingly important and clinically challenging cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer. This review summarizes the known clinical data for the systemic treatment of HER2-positive CNS metastases and includes information about ongoing clinical trials of novel therapies as well as emerging strategies for early detection and prevention

Best interests, dementia and the Mental Capacity Act (2005)

The Mental Capacity Act (2005) is an impressive piece of legislation that deserves serious ethical attention, but much of the commentary on the Act has focussed on its legal and practical implications rather than the underlying ethical concepts. This paper examines the approach that the Act takes to best interests. The Act does not provide an account of the underlying concept of best interests. Instead it lists factors that must be considered in determining best interests, and the Code of Practice to the Act states that this list is incomplete. This paper argues that this general approach is correct, contrary to some accounts of best interests. The checklist includes items that are unhelpful. Furthermore, neither the Act nor its Code of Practice provides sufficient guidance to carers faced with difficult decisions concerning best interests. This paper suggests ways in which the checklist can be developed and discusses cases that could be used in an updated Code of Practice

Spatial mapping of hepatitis C prevalence in recent injecting drug users in contact with services.

In developed countries the majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections occur in injecting drug users (IDUs) with prevalence in IDUs often high, but with wide geographical differences within countries. Estimates of local prevalence are needed for planning services for IDUs, but it is not practical to conduct HCV seroprevalence surveys in all areas. In this study survey data from IDUs attending specialist services were collected in 52/149 sites in England between 2006 and 2008. Spatially correlated random-effects models were used to estimate HCV prevalence for all sites, using auxiliary data to aid prediction. Estimates ranged from 14% to 82%, with larger cities, London and the North West having the highest HCV prevalence. The methods used generated robust estimates for each area, with a well-identified spatial pattern that improved predictions. Such models may be of use in other areas of study where surveillance data are sparse

Scalp cooling with adjuvant/neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer and the risk of scalp metastases: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PurposeThe risk of scalp metastases in patients using scalp cooling for preservation of hair during chemotherapy has been a concern but is poorly described.MethodsA systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies was undertaken to evaluate the effect of scalp cooling versus no scalp cooling on the risk of scalp metastasis in patients treated for breast cancer with chemotherapy. Electronic databases, journal specific, and hand searches of articles identified were searched. Patients were matched based on disease, treatment, lack of metastatic disease, and sex.ResultsA total of 24 full-text articles were identified for review. Of these articles, ten quantified the incidence of scalp metastasis with scalp cooling over time. For scalp cooling, 1959 patients were evaluated over an estimated mean time frame of 43.1 months. For no scalp cooling, 1238 patients were evaluated over an estimated mean time frame of 87.4 months. The incidence rate of scalp metastasis in the scalp cooling group versus the no scalp cooling group was 0.61% (95% CI 0.32-1.1%) versus 0.41% (95% CI 0.13-0.94%); P = 0.43.ConclusionThe incidence of scalp metastases was low regardless of scalp cooling. This analysis suggests that scalp cooling does not increase the incidence of scalp metastases

Stabilising entanglement by quantum jump-based feedback

We show that direct feedback based on quantum jump detection can be used to generate entangled steady states. We present a strategy that is insensitive to detection inefficiencies and robust against errors in the control Hamiltonian. This feedback procedure is also shown to overcome spontaneous emission effects by stabilising states with high degree of entanglement.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Social Determinants of Health Associated with HBV Testing and Access to Care among Foreign-born Persons Residing in the United States: 2009 - 2012

Objectives: To describe how select Social Determinants of Health (SDH) are associated with the burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection among foreign-born persons residing in the United States. Methods: Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the Racial and Ethnic Approaches to Community Health (REACH) 2010 Risk Factor Survey data to investigate the independent relationship between SDH and HBV testing and access to care. Results: HBV infected persons with insurance were more likely to see a physician than those without. Respondents worried about money to pay rent or mortgage were more likely to report HBV infection than individuals who reported they never worry. Compared to English speakers, Spanish-speakers were less likely to report HBV infection, Vietnamese-speakers were more likely to see a physician for HBV infection, and Khmer-speakers were less likely to be tested. Conclusions: Health insurance coverage, worries about paying rent, and language of interview all differentially affect HBV testing and linkages to care among foreign–born persons. Multi-sectorial stakeholder collaborative efforts should integrate resources to provide culturally sensitive health promotion campaigns which may improve HBV related outcomes