Nut production in Bertholletia excelsa across a logged forest mosaic: implications for multiple forest use

Although many examples of multiple-use forest management may be found in tropical smallholder systems, few studies provide empirical support for the integration of selective timber harvesting with non-timber forest product (NTFP) extraction. Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa, Lecythidaceae) is one of the world’s most economically-important NTFP species extracted almost entirely from natural forests across the Amazon Basin. An obligate out-crosser, Brazil nut flowers are pollinated by large-bodied bees, a process resulting in a hard round fruit that takes up to 14 months to mature. As many smallholders turn to the financial security provided by timber, Brazil nut fruits are increasingly being harvested in logged forests. We tested the influence of tree and stand-level covariates (distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity) on total nut production at the individual tree level in five recently logged Brazil nut concessions covering about 4000 ha of forest in Madre de Dios, Peru. Our field team accompanied Brazil nut harvesters during the traditional harvest period (January-April 2012 and January-April 2013) in order to collect data on fruit production. Three hundred and ninety-nine (approximately 80%) of the 499 trees included in this study were at least 100 m from the nearest cut stump, suggesting that concessionaires avoid logging near adult Brazil nut trees. Yet even for those trees on the edge of logging gaps, distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity did not have a statistically significant influence on Brazil nut production at the applied logging intensities (typically 1–2 timber trees removed per ha). In one concession where at least 4 trees ha-1 were removed, however, the logging intensity covariate resulted in a marginally significant (0.09) P value, highlighting a potential risk for a drop in nut production at higher intensities. While we do not suggest that logging activities should be completely avoided in Brazil nut rich forests, when a buffer zone cannot be observed, low logging intensities should be implemented. The sustainability of this integrated management system will ultimately depend on a complex series of socioeconomic and ecological interactions. Yet we submit that our study provides an important initial step in understanding the compatibility of timber harvesting with a high value NTFP, potentially allowing for diversification of forest use strategies in Amazonian Perù

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Food for thought: The underutilized potential of tropical tree-sources foods for 21st century sustainable food systems

1. The global food system is causing large-scale environmental degradation and is a major contributor to climate change. Its low diversity and failure to produce enough fruits and vegetables is contributing to a global health crisis. 2. The extraordinary diversity of tropical tree species is increasingly recognized to be vital to planetary health and especially important for supporting climate change mitigation. However, they are poorly integrated into food systems. Tropical tree diversity offers the potential for sustainable production of many foods, providing livelihood benefits and multiple ecosystem services including improved human nutrition. 3. First, we present an overview of these environmental, nutritional and livelihood benefits and show that tree-sourced foods provide important contributions to critical fruit and micronutrient (vitamin A and C) intake in rural populations based on data from sites in seven countries. 4. Then, we discuss several risks and limitations that must be taken into account when scaling-up tropical tree-based food production, including the importance of production system diversity and risks associated with supply to the global markets. 5. We conclude by discussing several interventions addressing technical, financial, political and consumer behaviour barriers, with potential to increase the consumption and production of tropical tree-sourced foods, to catalyse a transition towards more sustainable global food systems

Evaluation of the clinical and cost effectiveness of intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCD): A multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Configuring high quality care for the rapidly increasing number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major challenge worldwide for both providers and commissioners. In the UK, about two thirds of people with T2D are managed entirely in primary care, with wide variation in management strategies and achievement of targets. Pay for performance, introduced in 2004, initially resulted in improvements but disparities exist in ethnic minorities and the improvements are levelling off. Community based, intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCDs) were considered one solution and are functioning across the UK. However, there is no randomised trial evidence for the effectiveness of such clinics. Trial Design, Methods and Findings This is a cluster-randomised trial, involving 3 primary care trusts, with 49 general practices randomised to usual care (n = 25) or intervention (ICCDs; n = 24). All eligible adult patients with T2D were invited; 1997 were recruited and 1280 followed-up after 18-months intervention. Primary outcome: achievement of all three of the NICE targets [(HbA1c≤7.0%/53 mmol/mol; Blood Pressure <140/80 mmHg; cholesterol <154 mg/dl (4 mmol/l)]. Primary outcome was achieved in 14.3% in the intervention arm vs. 9.3% in the control arm (p = 0.059 after adjustment for covariates). The odds ratio (95% CI) for achieving primary outcome in the intervention group was 1.56 (0.98, 2.49). Primary care and community clinic costs were significantly higher in the intervention group, but there were no significant differences in hospital costs or overall healthcare costs. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of +£7,778 per QALY gained, indicated ICCD was marginally more expensive at producing health gain. Conclusions Intermediate care clinics can contribute to improving target achievement in patients with diabetes. Further work is needed to investigate the optimal scale and organisational structure of ICCD services and whether, over time, their role may change as skill levels in primary care increase. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00945204; National Research Register (NRR) M0014178167.National Institute of Health Research Project number: SDO/110/2005. Initial service for support costs was provided by Department of health.NHS Leicester City, Thames Valley Diabetes Research Network (TVDRN), West Midlands South Comprehensive Local Research Network (CLRN), Primary Care Research Network (PCRN) and DIERT charity provided additional support for the successful completion of the study

Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge