Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data

When responding to infectious disease outbreaks, rapid and accurate estimation of the epidemic trajectory is critical. However, two common data collection problems affect the reliability of the epidemiological data in real time: missing information on the time of first symptoms, and retrospective revision of historical information, including right censoring. Here, we propose an approach to construct epidemic curves in near real time that addresses these two challenges by 1) imputation of dates of symptom onset for reported cases using a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and 2) adjustment for right censoring using the NobBS software package to nowcast cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between March and April 2020. We evaluate how these real-time estimates compare with more complete epidemiological data that became available later. We explore the impact of the different assumptions on the estimates, and compare our estimates with those obtained from commonly used surveillance approaches. Our framework can help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health systems in other locations.PMD was supported by the fellowship Ramón Areces Foundation. JAH was funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Award U54GM088558, and the National Institutes of Health Director’s Early Independence, Award DP5-OD028145. ML was supported by the Morris-Singer Fund and by a subcontract from the Carnegie Mellon University under an award from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Award U01IP001121). MS was supported by the National Institute Of General Medical Sciences, Award R01GM130668-02. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.S

COVID-19 outbreaks in a transmission control scenario: challenges posed by social and leisure activities, and for workers in vulnerable conditions, Spain, early summer 2020

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 community-wide transmission declined in Spain by early May 2020, being replaced by outbreaks and sporadic cases. From mid-June to 2 August, excluding single household outbreaks, 673 outbreaks were notified nationally, 551 active (>6,200 cases) at the time. More than half of these outbreaks and cases coincided with: (i) social (family/friends’ gatherings or leisure venues) and (ii) occupational (mainly involving workers in vulnerable conditions) settings. Control measures were accordingly applied

Detection of class 1 and 2 integrons, extended-spectrum β-lactamases and qnr alleles in enterobacterial isolates from the digestive tract of Intensive Care Unit inpatients

In this study, we searched for extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs), class 1 and 2 integrons, and qnrA, qnrB and qnrS genes in 56 oxyimino-cephalosporin and/or ciprofloxacin-resistant enterobacterial isolates obtained from the gastrointestinal tract of patients admitted in an Intensive Care Unit in Uruguay. ESBLs were detected in 11 isolates (6 CTX-M-2, 3 CTX-M-9, 1 CTX-M-15 and 1 PER-2). qnr genes and integrons were detected in 5 and 24 isolates, respectively. Eight different antibiotic resistance gene cassettes were found within six different genetic arrangements. Two types of complex class 1 integrons carrying insertion sequence ISCR1 were found, one showing blaCTX-M-2–orf3 and the other qnrA1–ampR. Ten of the thirteen isolates carrying class 2 integrons presented the element IS5 inserted between intI2 and dfrA1, whereas another class 2 integron lacked the internal stop codon usually present in intI2. This is the first report of the occurrence of qnrA, qnrB and blaCTX-M-9 in Uruguay. Dissemination of the different groups of CTX-M enzymes (i.e. groups 1, 2 and 9) appears to be a recent phenomenon in South America.Fil: Bado, Inés. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Cordeiro, Nicolás F.. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Robino, Luciana. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: García Fulgueiras, Virginia. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Seija, Verónica. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Bazet, Cristina. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Gutkind, Gabriel Osvaldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica; ArgentinaFil: Ayala, Juan A.. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas; España. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid; EspañaFil: Vignoli, Rafael. Universidad de la Republica; Urugua

Extended-spectrum β-lactamases and plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance in enterobacterial clinical isolates in the paediatric hospital of Uruguay

Objectives To analyse the prevalence of resistance to β-lactams and plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance in Enterobacteriaceae in the paediatric hospital of Uruguay. Methods A total of 368 enterobacterial isolates collected between 1 May and 30 November 2009 were studied for the presence of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs), qnr alleles and aac(6′)Ib by phenotypic and molecular methods. The genomic context and transferability of β-lactamase and qnr genes were examined by PCR and conjugation, respectively. Results The proportion of inpatients having an infection caused by ESBL-producing enterobacteria was 0.23% (16/7073) in paediatrics wards, 0.64‰ (3/4696) in the neonatology department and 0.03‰ (1/32 557) in the emergency department. ESBL-carrying enterobacteria constituted a total of 21.6% (16/74), 13% (3/23) and 0.37% (1/271) when samples were obtained from paediatrics wards, the neonatology department and the emergency department, respectively. Overall, CTX-M-2 (n = 7), CTX-M-9 (n = 3), CTX-M-8 (n = 2), CTX-M-15 (n = 1), SHV-5 (n = 5) and SHV-2 (n = 2) β-lactamases were detected. Thirteen out of 20 ESBL-producing isolates also carried the aac(6′)Ib gene, and the cr variant was detected in one of them. qnr alleles were detected in four isolates comprising two qnrA1 genes, a qnrB8-like variant and a new qnrB gene showing 26 amino acid differences from QnrB1. Conclusions The proportion of ESBL-producing enterobacteria in Uruguay's paediatric hospital during the study period was 2.3 per 1000 hospitalized patients. The number of different microorganisms detected, as well as the various EBSLs, suggests the occurrence of sporadic episodes instead of nosocomial outbreaks. Nevertheless, the presence of new resistance genes reinforces the necessity for permanent surveillance programmes.Fil: García Fulgueiras, Virginia. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Bado, Inés. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Mota, María Inés. Universidad de la Republica; Uruguay. Uruguay. Ministerio de Salud Pública; UruguayFil: Robino, Luciana. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Cordeiro, Nicolás F.. Universidad de la Republica; UruguayFil: Varela, Adriana. Uruguay. Ministerio de Salud Pública; UruguayFil: Algorta, Gabriela. Universidad de la Republica; Uruguay. Uruguay. Ministerio de Salud Pública; UruguayFil: Gutkind, Gabriel Osvaldo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay; ArgentinaFil: Ayala, Juan A.. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid; España. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas; EspañaFil: Vignoli, Rafael. Universidad de la Republica; Urugua

Emergence of KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae in Uruguay: infection control and molecular characterization

We describe the first outbreak of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae (KPC-KP), the infection control measures adopted and the shift in resistance patterns of isolates during antibiotic treatment. The ST258 KPC-KP strain exhibited a multiresistant antibiotic phenotype including co-resistance to gentamycin, colistin and tigecycline intermediate susceptibility. Isolates before and after treatment had different behaviour concerning their antibiotic susceptibility and the population analysis profile study. A progressive increase in the aminoglycosides (acquiring amicacin resistance) and β-lactam MICs, and a decreased susceptibility to fosfomycin was observed throughout the administration of combined antimicrobial regimens including meropenem. A high meropenem resistance KPC-KP homogeneous population (MIC 256 Jg/mL), could arise from the meropenem heterogeneous low-level resistance KPC-KP population (MIC 8 Jg/mL), by the selective pressure of the prolonged meropenem therapy. The kpc gene was inserted in a Tn4401 isoform a, and no transconjugants were detected. The core measures adopted were successful to prevent evolution towards resistance dissemination

Identification of the first blaCMY-2 gene in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium isolates obtained from cases of paediatric diarrhoea illness detected in South America

The objectives of this study were to investigate clinical isolates of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium resistant to β-lactam antibiotics, to characterise their mechanisms of antibiotic resistance and to evaluate the possible biological cost of expressing resistance genes. Two oxyimino-cephalosporin-resistant Salmonella isolates obtained from children with diarrhoea were characterised. The occurrence of plasmid-encoded bla CMY-2 genes was confirmed by molecular methods and conjugation assays; transcription levels were determined by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). The genomic context of the β-lactamases, replicon type and addiction systems were analysed by PCR. Genomic relatedness of both isolates was studied by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) assays. Growth curves, motility and invasiveness assays in Caco-2 cells were performed to analyse the bacterial fitness of both isolates. Both isolates carried a blaCMY-2-like allele in an IncI plasmid and belonged to the same MLST sequence type (ST19); nevertheless, they showed extensive differences in their PFGE profiles and virulotypes. Isolate STM709 appeared to lack the Salmonella virulence plasmid and displayed less motility and invasiveness in cultured cells than isolate STM910. qRT-PCR showed that isolate STM709 had higher blaCMY-2 mRNA levels compared with STM910. Altogether, the results suggest that a plasmid carrying blaCMY-2 could be disseminating among different clones of S. Typhimurium. Different levels of blaCMY-2 mRNA could have an effect on the fitness of this micro-organism, resulting in lower invasiveness and motility. © 2013 International Society for Chemotherapy of Infection and Cancer.Comisión Sectorial de Investigación Científica (CSIC, Uruguay)Peer Reviewe