Impacts of improving water management of smallholder agriculture in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

With its total area of about 200,000 square kilometers (km2), which is 20% of the country’s land mass, and accommodating 25% of the population, the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abbay) is one of the most important river basins in Ethiopia. About 40% of agricultural products and 45% of the surface water of the country are contributed by this basin. However, the characteristic-intensive biophysical variation, rapid population growth, land degradation, climatic fluctuation and resultant low agricultural productivity and poverty are posing daunting challenges to sustainability of agricultural production systems in the basin. This calls for technological interventions that not only enhance productivity and livelihoods in the basin, but also bring about positive spillover effects on downstream water users. In this study, the farming systems in the basin have been stratified and characterized; and promising agricultural water management technologies, which may upgrade the productivity of smallholder rainfed agriculture while improving downstream water quality, have been identified. As a consequence, supplementary and full irrigation using rainwater and drainage of waterlogged soils are recognized as being among the promising agricultural water management technologies that can be easily scaled-up in the basin. The magnitude of the impacts of these technologies on the productivity of the upstream farming systems and the concomitant effects on the downstream water flow and quality are under investigation, assuming an assortment of scenarios.Length: pp.7-21River basinsFarming systemsCerealsRainfed farmingWater harvestingIrrigated farming

Improved water and land management in the Ethiopian highlands and its impact on downstream stakeholders dependent on the Blue Nile

Improved water and land management in the Ethiopian highlands and its impact on downstream stakeholders dependent on the Blue Nile – short title Upstream-Downstream in Blue Nile River project is one of the projects in the Nile Basin supported by the CPWF. It was implemented during from 2007 to 2009 through a partnership of 8 institutions. The Blue Nile is the major tributary of the Nile River, contributing about 62% of the Nile flow at Aswan. About two thirds of the area of this densely populated basin is in the highlands and hence receives fairly high levels of annual rainfall of 800 to 2,200 mm. However, the rainfall is erratic in terms of both spatial and temporal distribution with prolonged dry spells and drought often leading to crop failures. Currently, water resources are only marginally exploited in the upper basin but are much more developed in the downstream reaches. The population, located in the downstream part of the Blue Nile, is dependent on the river water for supplementary irrigation and energy production. Canal and reservoir siltation is a major problem, adding the burdens of poor riparian farmers. This project was envisaged to improve the scientific understanding of the land and water resources of the basin, and hypothesized that with increased scientific knowledge of the hydrological, watershed, and institutional processes of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia (Abbay), constraints to up-scaling adaptable best practices and promising technologies (technical, socio-economic, institutional) could be overcome, which will result in significant positive impacts for both upstream and downstream communities and state

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Impacts of improving water management of smallholder agriculture in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

With its total area of about 200,000 square kilometers (km2), which is 20% of the country’s land mass, and accommodating 25% of the population, the Upper Blue Nile Basin (Abbay) is one of the most important river basins in Ethiopia. About 40% of agricultural products and 45% of the surface water of the country are contributed by this basin. However, the characteristic-intensive biophysical variation, rapid population growth, land degradation, climatic fluctuation and resultant low agricultural productivity and poverty are posing daunting challenges to sustainability of agricultural production systems in the basin. This calls for technological interventions that not only enhance productivity and livelihoods in the basin, but also bring about positive spillover effects on downstream water users. In this study, the farming systems in the basin have been stratified and characterized; and promising agricultural water management technologies, which may upgrade the productivity of smallholder rainfed agriculture while improving downstream water quality, have been identified. As a consequence, supplementary and full irrigation using rainwater and drainage of waterlogged soils are recognized as being among the promising agricultural water management technologies that can be easily scaled-up in the basin. The magnitude of the impacts of these technologies on the productivity of the upstream farming systems and the concomitant effects on the downstream water flow and quality are under investigation, assuming an assortment of scenarios

Mapping the spatial disparities of HIV prevalence in Ethiopian zones using the generalized additive model

Abstract HIV is a worldwide social and health pandemic that poses a significant problem. This study contributes to the 2030 global agenda of reducing HIV prevalence. The study analyzed HIV prevalence using the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. The study included men aged 15–54 years and women aged 15–49 years who responded to questions about HIV tests. A generalized geo-additive model (GAM) was fitted to HIV data using nonparametric smooth terms for geolocations. Two smoothing techniques were used in GAMs to evaluate spatial disparities and the probable effects of variables on HIV risk. There were certain areas in Ethiopia that were identified as hot spot zones for HIV, including Nuer and Agnuak in Gambella, West Wollega and Illubabor in Oromia, Benchi Maji and Shaka in SNNPR, Awsi, Fantana, Kilbet, and Gabi in the Afar region, Shinilie of the Somalia region, North and South Wollo, Oromia special zones of the Amhara region, Central Ethiopia, and Addis Ababa city. On the other hand, the eastern parts of Ethiopia, particularly most zones in the Somalia region, were identified as cold spot zones with the lowest HIV odds ratio. The odds of HIV+ were higher for those who reside in rural areas than in urban areas. Furthermore, people who have STIs, who used contraceptive methods, and who learned at the secondary level of education were more likely to be infected with HIV. After adjusting for confounding variables, the results indicated that there are substantially significant spatial variations in HIV prevalence across Ethiopian zones. These results provide essential information to strategically target geographic areas to allocate resources and policy interventions at zonal level administrations

Prevalence and determinants of hypertension in underrepresented indigenous populations of Nepal

Published: February 18, 2022Indigenous populations residing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are highly underrepresented in medicine and public health research. Specifically, data on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) from indigenous populations remains scarce. Despite the increasing burden of NCDs in the Himalayan region, their prevalence in many indigenous populations remains understudied. The nationally representative public health surveys often do not include the indigenous communities, especially those that reside in rural areas or exist in small numbers. This observational cross-sectional survey study aimed to assess the prevalence of three NCD risk factors namely obesity, hypertension, and tachycardia and identify dietary and lifestyle variables associated with them across underrepresented indigenous populations of Nepal. A total of 311 individuals (53.3% women, 46.7% men) with mean age 43±15 years from 12 indigenous Nepali communities residing in rural (47.9%) or semi-urban (52.1%) areas volunteered to participate in this study. Univariate tests and multivariable logistic regressions were used to analyze the survey data. The mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures were 121.3±19.5 mmHg and 81.3±11.8 mmHg respectively. Overall, the prevalence of obesity and tachycardia was low (0.64% and 3.22%, respectively) but hypertension was prevalent at 23.8%. Hypertension was not significantly different across populations, but it was associated with age, BMI, and tobacco use, and collectively, these variables explained 13.9% variation in hypertension prevalence. Although we were unable to detect direct associations between individual determinants of hypertension identified in non-indigenous Nepalis, such as education levels, alcohol consumption, and smoking in this study, having one or more determinants increased the odds of hypertension in the indigenous participants. Furthermore, ~14% of the hypertensive individuals had none of the universally identified hypertension risk factors. The lack of association between previously identified risk factors for hypertension in these individuals indicates that the additional determinants of hypertension remain to be identified in indigenous Nepali populations.Tsedenia Workneh Denekew, Yoshina Gautam, Dinesh Bhandari, Guru Prasad Gautam, Jeevan Bahadur Sherchand, Amod K. Pokhrel, Aashish R. Jh

Space metrics modeling to analyse correlations between urban form and surface water drainage performance

Cities exhibit unique spatial patterns, and thus a distinctive heterogeneity. At different scales of influence, they introduce changes in the physical properties of the natural environment, as the diffusion of impervious surfaces. While climate change is expected to increase the frequency of hazards, patterns of urbanization might be critical in balancing the exposure of cities to extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfalls. Therefore, the adaptability of urban structures to stormwater management measures is vital to safeguard cities against increasing flooding. Yet, planning and design practices are challenged to address the resiliency of future urban landscapes. There is necessity for a new set of planning tools able to analyse the performance of specific urban patterns to extreme stormwater events. This study describes a new hydrologic model designed to operate on the meso-scale level, which uses a limited dataset but yet is able to identify flood prone areas in dense urban environments. Initial experiments on case-study areas has been develop to determine the behavior and robustness of the model. Although further research needs to be performed, the use of urban form metrics, in assessing future developments, has a strategic role in bringing together urban planning and flood impact reduction.Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience

Spatial metrics modeling to analyse correlations between urban form and surface water drainage performance.

Cities exhibit unique spatial patterns, and thus a distinctive heterogeneity. At different scales of influence, they introduce changes in the physical properties of the natural environment, as the diffusion of impervious surfaces. While climate change is expected to increase the frequency of hazards, patterns of urbanization might be critical in balancing the exposure of cities to extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfalls. Therefore, the adaptability of urban structures to stormwater management measures is vital to safeguard cities against increasing flooding. Yet, planning and design practices are challenged to address the resiliency of urban developments. There is necessity for a new set of planning tools able to assess the performance of specific spatial patterns on the meso-scale level to extreme stormwater events. This study describes a new hydrologic model designed to analyse the spatial configuration of the urban landscape and local distribution of natural drainage sites, identifying flood prone areas in densely urbanized districts. Initial experiments on case-study cities has been develop to determine the behavior, outcomes and robustness of the model. Although further research needs to be performed, the use of spatial metrics, in assessing future developments, has a strategic role in bringing together urban planning and flood impact reduction.Department of Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience

Prevalence and associated factors of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia

Abstract Neonatal mortality is the death of a live-born baby within the first 28 days of birth. For the selected households, neonatal mortality was collected from children aged 0–28 days and women aged 15–49. The neonatal period is a significant 4-week period in human life because it carries a greater mortality risk. To identify the determinant factors of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia based on EDHS 2016 data with the application of count regression models. In this study, all neonates in Ethiopia were born within the 5 years preceding EDHS 2016 of the source population in the selected EAs from September to December 2015. Count regression models were used to analyze the data. A total of 10,641 live-born neonates within the previous 5 years of EDHS 2016 had neonatal mortality of women aged 15–49, which was considered in the study to be 7193. The data were found to have excess zeros (96.6%), and the variance (0.052) was higher than its mean (0.04). The count regression model (ZINB) was best fitted to the data with maximum likelihood parameter estimation methods. The average neonatal mortality difference in multiple births was increased by IRR = 8.53 times compared with a single birth. The average number of neonatal deaths experienced during breastfeeding was lower (IRR = 0.38) than that experienced by mothers who did not experience breastfeeding their child. The average neonatal mortality difference in rural residences was increased by IRR = 3.99 times compared to urban mothers' residences. In this study, the prevalence of Neonatal mortality in Ethiopia was higher. For selected ZINB count regression models of explanatory variables, such as multiple birth types, having rural residence factors of neonatal mortality increased the risk of death. However, having early breastfeeding, a female household head, and antenatal visits (1–4) and (5–10) during pregnancy decrease the risk of neonatal death

Urban growth modeling to predict the changes in the urban microclimate and urban water cycle

The consequences of urban growth on the exposure, sensitivity but also as a driver of flooding are often underexposed. Yet, the rate of current urbanization is unprecedented and might increase future flood risk dramatically. To gain insight in this issue, a study on urban development has been performed using 3 case study areas: the megacities of Beijing, and Mumbai and 1 regular city: Can Tho, Vietnam. Using a physically urban growth model, future growth patterns are obtained that show land cover transformations for the years 2035 and 2060. The growth patterns are based on historical data and a business as usual scenario to gain insight in the impactions of current growth rates. The outcomes have been analyzed in relation to pluvial flooding sensitivities based on the distribution of impervious areas. For the Mumbai case study, the same input is provided used to investigate potential changes in the microclimate by application of a modified mesocale atmospheric model. The outcomes show significant changes in flood risk and precipitation levels, urging for ‘smart growth’ policies to secure a sustainable future for the investigated megacitiesHydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience