Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic wa

Designing assisted living technologies 'in the wild' : preliminary experiences with cultural probe methodology

Background There is growing interest in assisted living technologies to support independence at home. Such technologies should ideally be designed ‘in the wild’ i.e. taking account of how real people live in real homes and communities. The ATHENE (Assistive Technologies for Healthy Living in Elders: Needs Assessment by Ethnography) project seeks to illuminate the living needs of older people and facilitate the co-production with older people of technologies and services. This paper describes the development of a cultural probe tool produced as part of the ATHENE project and how it was used to support home visit interviews with elders with a range of ethnic and social backgrounds, family circumstances, health conditions and assisted living needs. Method Thirty one people aged 60 to 98 were visited in their homes on three occasions. Following an initial interview, participants were given a set of cultural probe materials, including a digital camera and the ‘Home and Life Scrapbook’ to complete in their own time for one week. Activities within the Home and Life Scrapbook included maps (indicating their relationships to people, places and objects), lists (e.g. likes, dislikes, things they were concerned about, things they were comfortable with), wishes (things they wanted to change or improve), body outline (indicating symptoms or impairments), home plan (room layouts of their homes to indicate spaces and objects used) and a diary. After one week, the researcher and participant reviewed any digital photos taken and the content of the Home and Life Scrapbook as part of the home visit interview. Findings The cultural probe facilitated collection of visual, narrative and material data by older people, and appeared to generate high levels of engagement from some participants. However, others used the probe minimally or not at all for various reasons including limited literacy, physical problems (e.g. holding a pen), lack of time or energy, limited emotional or psychological resources, life events, and acute illness. Discussions between researchers and participants about the materials collected (and sometimes about what had prevented them completing the tasks) helped elicit further information relevant to assisted living technology design. The probe materials were particularly helpful when having conversations with non-English speaking participants through an interpreter. Conclusions Cultural probe methods can help build a rich picture of the lives and experiences of older people to facilitate the co-production of assisted living technologies. But their application may be constrained by the participant’s physical, mental and emotional capacity. They are most effective when used as a tool to facilitate communication and development of a deeper understanding of older people’s needs

Emotion: Appraisal-coping model for the "Cascades" problem

Modelling emotion has become a challenge nowadays. Therefore, several models have been produced in order to express human emotional activity. However, only a few of them are currently able to express the close relationship existing between emotion and cognition. An appraisal-coping model is presented here, with the aim to simulate the emotional impact caused by the evaluation of a particular situation (appraisal), along with the consequent cognitive reaction intended to face the situation (coping). This model is applied to the "Cascades" problem, a small arithmetical exercise designed for ten-year-old pupils. The goal is to create a model corresponding to a child's behaviour when solving the problem using his own strategies.Comment: 6 page

Genetic subtypes of smoldering multiple myeloma are associated with distinct pathogenic phenotypes and clinical outcomes

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is a precursor condition of multiple myeloma (MM) with significant heterogeneity in disease progression. Existing clinical models of progression risk do not fully capture this heterogeneity. Here we integrate 42 genetic alterations from 214 SMM patients using unsupervised binary matrix factorization (BMF) clustering and identify six distinct genetic subtypes. These subtypes are differentially associated with established MM-related RNA signatures, oncogenic and immune transcriptional profiles, and evolving clinical biomarkers. Three genetic subtypes are associated with increased risk of progression to active MM in both the primary and validation cohorts, indicating they can be used to better predict high and low-risk patients within the currently used clinical risk stratification models

Re-Shape: A Method to Teach Data Ethics for Data Science Education

Data has become central to the technologies and services that human-computer interaction (HCI) designers make, and the ethical use of data in and through these technologies should be given critical attention throughout the design process. However, there is little research on ethics education in computer science that explicitly addresses data ethics. We present and analyze Re-Shape, a method to teach students about the ethical implications of data collection and use. Re-Shape, as part of an educational environment, builds upon the idea of cultivating care and allows students to collect, process, and visualizetheir physical movement data in ways that support critical reflection and coordinated classroom activities about data, data privacy, and human-centered systems for data science. We also use a case study of Re-Shape in an undergraduate computer science course to explore prospects and limitations of instructional designs and educational technology such as Re-Shape that leverage personal data to teach data ethics

Genomic Profiling of Smoldering Multiple Myeloma Identifies Patients at a High Risk of Disease Progression

PURPOSE: Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is a precursor condition of multiple myeloma (MM) with a 10% annual risk of progression. Various prognostic models exist for risk stratification; however, those are based on solely clinical metrics. The discovery of genomic alterations that underlie disease progression to MM could improve current risk models. METHODS: We used next-generation sequencing to study 214 patients with SMM. We performed whole-exome sequencing on 166 tumors, including 5 with serial samples, and deep targeted sequencing on 48 tumors. RESULTS: We observed that most of the genetic alterations necessary for progression have already been acquired by the diagnosis of SMM. Particularly, we found that alterations of the mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway (KRAS and NRAS single nucleotide variants [SNVs]), the DNA repair pathway (deletion 17p, TP53, and ATM SNVs), and MYC (translocations or copy number variations) were all independent risk factors of progression after accounting for clinical risk staging. We validated these findings in an external SMM cohort by showing that patients who have any of these three features have a higher risk of progressing to MM. Moreover, APOBEC associated mutations were enriched in patients who progressed and were associated with a shorter time to progression in our cohort. CONCLUSION: SMM is a genetically mature entity whereby most driver genetic alterations have already occurred, which suggests the existence of a right-skewed model of genetic evolution from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance to MM. We identified and externally validated genomic predictors of progression that could distinguish patients at high risk of progression to MM and, thus, improve on the precision of current clinical models

Why so serious? Theorising playful model-driven group decision support with situated affectivity

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer via the DOI in this record.An integrative approach to theorising behavioural, affective and cognitive processes in modeldriven group decision support (GDS) interventions is needed to gain insight into the (micro-)processes by which outcomes are accomplished. This paper proposes that the theoretical lens of situated affectivity, grounded in recent extensions of scaffolded mind models, is suitable to understand the performativity of affective micro-processes in model-driven GDS interventions. An illustrative vignette of a humorous micro-moment in a group decision workshop is presented to reveal the performativity of extended affective scaffolding processes for group decision development. The lens of situated affectivity constitutes a novel approach for the study of interventionist practice in the context of group decision making (and negotiation). An outlook with opportunities for future research is offered to facilitate an integrated approach to the study of cognitive-affective and behavioural micro-processes in model-driven GDS interventions.This work was supported in part by the EU FP7-ENERGY- SMARTCITIES-2012 (314277) project STEEP (Systems Thinking for Comprehensive City Efficient Energy Planning