14 research outputs found
Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301–2012) and climatic factors – the case of Catalonia
Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in
the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to
characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with
different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and
solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial
destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the
overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present
a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel
is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the
infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen
a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the
total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed
to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in
developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater
vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in
flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer–early
autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The
relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as
strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation
in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the
variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods
experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in
catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation
(QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood
frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar
activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation
patterns, the high troposphere and the stratosphere, has been analysed in
order to ascertain its role in causing floods
Assessment of flash floods taking into account climate change scenarios in the Llobregat River basin
International audienceGlobal change may imply important changes in the future occurrence and intensity of extreme events. Climate scenarios characterizing these plausible changes were previously obtained for the Llobregat River basin (NE Spain). This paper presents the implementation of these scenarios in the HBV (Hydrologiska ByrĂĄns Vattenbalansavdelning) hydrological model. Then, the expected changes in terms of flash flood occurrence and intensity are assessed for two different sub-basins: the Alt Llobregat and the Anoia (Llobregat River basin). The assessment of future flash floods has been done in terms of the intensity and occurrence of extreme events, using a peak over threshold (POT) analysis. For these two sub-basins, most of the simulated scenarios present an increase of the intensity of the peak discharge values. On the other hand, the future occurrence follows different trends in the two sub-basins: an increase is observed in Alt Llobregat but a decrease occurs in Anoia. Despite the uncertainties that appear in the whole process, the results obtained can shed some light on how future flash floods events may occur
Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland
The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades
has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible
forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper
presents a new index of summer flood damage that considers severe and
catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and
explores the influence of external forcings on flood frequencies. In
addition, links between floods and low-frequency atmospheric variability
patterns are examined. The flood damage index provides evidence that the
1817–1851, 1881–1927, 1977–1990 and 2005–present flood clusters occur mostly
in phase with palaeoclimate proxies. The cross-spectral analysis documents
that the periodicities detected in the coherency and phase spectra of 11
(Schwabe cycle) and 104 years (Gleissberg cycle) are related to a high
frequency of flooding and solar activity minima, whereas the 22-year
cyclicity detected (Hale cycle) is associated with solar activity maxima and
a decrease in flood frequency. The analysis of low-frequency atmospheric
variability modes shows that Switzerland lies close to the border of the
principal summer mode. The Swiss river catchments situated on the centre and
southern flank of the Alps are affected by atmospherically unstable areas
defined by the positive phase of the pattern, while those basins located in
the northern slope of the Alps are predominantly associated with the
negative phase of the pattern. Furthermore, a change in the low-frequency
atmospheric variability pattern related to the major floods occurred over
the period from 1800 to 2009; the summer principal mode persists in the negative
phase during the last cool pulses of the Little Ice Age (1817–1851 and
1881–1927 flood clusters), whereas the positive phases of the mode prevail
during the warmer climate of the last 4 decades (flood clusters from 1977 to
present)
Methodology for risk assessment of flash flood events due to climate and land-use changes: application to the Llobregat basin
Global change, including climate, land-use and socio-economic changes, is expected to increase the
stress on the entire water cycle. In the Mediterranean region, extreme events are likely to increase
due to climate change. This work, framed in the EC Seventh Framework Programme project
IMPRINTS, presents a methodology to obtain future flood risk maps using climate and land-use
scenarios, identifying the new potential risk zones. The implementation of this methodology is
applied to the Llobregat river basin case study. Two different special report on emission scenarios
are used, and although the uncertainties are high, the results obtained are coincident: an increase of
flood risk is observed in the whole Low Llobregat area. The climate changes affect the basin globally,
increasing the risk homogeneously within the area considered. On the other hand, land-use changes
represent urban growth in the floodplains, and hence, local risk increases are found in these spots.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat
Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500Â years
There are concerns that recent climate change is altering the frequency and magnitude of river floods in an unprecedented way1. Historical studies have identified flood-rich periods in the past half millennium in various regions of Europe2. However, because of the low temporal resolution of existing datasets and the relatively low number of series, it has remained unclear whether Europe is currently in a flood-rich period from a long-term perspective. Here we analyse how recent decades compare with the flood history of Europe, using a new database composed of more than 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series based on documentary evidence covering all major regions of Europe. We show that the past three decades were among the most flood-rich periods in Europe in the past 500 years, and that this period differs from other flood-rich periods in terms of its extent, air temperatures and flood seasonality. We identified nine flood-rich periods and associated regions. Among the periods richest in floods are 1560-1580 (western and central Europe), 1760-1800 (most of Europe), 1840-1870 (western and southern Europe) and 1990-2016 (western and central Europe). In most parts of Europe, previous flood-rich periods occurred during cooler-than-usual phases, but the current flood-rich period has been much warmer. Flood seasonality is also more pronounced in the recent period. For example, during previous flood and interflood periods, 41 per cent and 42 per cent of central European floods occurred in summer, respectively, compared with 55 per cent of floods in the recent period. The exceptional nature of the present-day flood-rich period calls for process-based tools for flood-risk assessment that capture the physical mechanisms involved, and management strategies that can incorporate the recent changes in risk.Europäischer Forschungsrat (ERC)Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF)Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF)5605667Horizon 2020DFGSpanish Agency of ScienceSpanish Agency of ScienceSpanish Agency of ScienceSpanish Agency of ScienceMinistry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republi