Beyond LIFO and FIFO: Exploring an Allocation-In-Fraction-Out (AIFO) policy in a two-warehouse inventory model

The classical formulation of a two-warehouse inventory model is often based on the Last-In-First-Out (LIFO) or First-In-First-Out (FIFO) dispatching policy. The LIFO policy relies upon inventory stored in a rented warehouse (RW), with an ample capacity, being consumed first, before depleting inventory of an owned warehouse (OW) that has a limited capacity. Consumption works the other way around for the FIFO policy. In this paper, a new policy entitled “Allocation-In-Fraction-Out (AIFO)” is proposed. Unlike LIFO and FIFO, AIFO implies simultaneous consumption fractions associated with RW and OW. That said, the goods at both warehouses are depleted by the end of the same cycle. This necessitates the introduction of a key performance indicator to trade-off the costs associated with AIFO, LIFO and FIFO. Consequently, three general two-warehouse inventory models for items that are subject to inspection for imperfect quality are developed and compared – each underlying one of the dispatching policies considered. Each sub-replenishment that is delivered to OW and RW incurs a distinct transportation cost and undertakes a 100 per cent screening. The mathematical formulation reflects a diverse range of time-varying forms. The paper provides illustrative examples that analyse the behaviour of deterioration, value of information and perishability in different settings. For perishable products, we demonstrate that LIFO and FIFO may not be the right dispatching policies. Further, relaxing the inherent determinism of the maximum capacity associated with OW, not only produces better results and implies comprehensive learning, but may also suggest outsourcing the inventory holding through vendor managed inventory

Formation of seasonal groups and application of seasonal indices

Estimating seasonal variations in demand is a challenging task faced by many organisations. There may be many stock-keeping units (SKUs) to forecast, but often data histories are short, with very few complete seasonal cycles. It has been suggested in the literature that group seasonal indices (GSI) methods should be used to take advantage of information on similar SKUs. This paper addresses two research questions: (1) how should groups be formed in order to use the GSI methods? and (2) when should the GSI methods and the individual seasonal indices (ISI) method be used? Theoretical results are presented, showing that seasonal grouping and forecasting may be unified, based on a Mean Square Error criterion, and K-means clustering. A heuristic K-means method is presented, which is competitive with the Average Linkage method. It offers a viable alternative to a company’s own grouping method or may be used with confidence if a company lacks a grouping method. The paper gives empirical findings that confirm earlier theoretical results that greater accuracy may be obtained by employing a rule that assigns the GSI method to some SKUs and the ISI method to the remainder

Efficient inventory control for imperfect quality items

In this paper, we present a general EOQ model for items that are subject to inspection for imperfect quality. Each lot that is delivered to the sorting facility undertakes a 100 per cent screening and the percentage of defective items per lot reduces according to a learning curve. The generality of the model is viewed as important both from an academic and practitioner perspective. The mathematical formulation considers arbitrary functions of time that allow the decision maker to assess the consequences of a diverse range of strategies by employing a single inventory model. A rigorous methodology is utilised to show that the solution is a unique and global optimal and a general step-by-step solution procedure is presented for continuous intra-cycle periodic review applications. The value of the temperature history and flow time through the supply chain is also used to determine an efficient policy. Furthermore, coordination mechanisms that may affect the supplier and the retailer are explored to improve inventory control at both echelons. The paper provides illustrative examples that demonstrate the application of the theoretical model in different settings and lead to the generation of interesting managerial insights

Joint optimisation of inspection maintenance and spare parts provisioning: a comparative study of inventory policies using simulation and survey data

The demand for industrial plant spare parts is driven, at least in part, by maintenance requirements. It is therefore important to jointly optimise planned maintenance and the associated spare parts inventory using the most appropriate maintenance and replenishment policies. In this simulation-based study, we address this challenge in the context of the random failure of parts in service and the replacement of defective parts at inspections of period T. Inspections are modelled using the delay-time concept. A number of simultaneous periodic review and continuous review replenishment policies are compared. A paper making plant provides a real context for the presentation of our ideas. We survey practitioners working with such plant to collect real data that inform the values of parameters in the models. Our simulation results indicate that a periodic review policy with ordering that is twice as frequent as inspection is cost optimal in the context of the plant that we study. For the purpose of comparison, we also present and discuss the characteristics of the various policies considered

Reproducibility in forecasting research

The importance of replication has been recognised across many scientific disciplines. Reproducibility is a necessary condition for replicability, because an inability to reproduce results implies that the methods have not been specified sufficiently, thus precluding replication. This paper describes how two independent teams of researchers attempted to reproduce the empirical findings of an important paper, ‘‘Shrinkage estimators of time series seasonal factors and their effect on forecasting accuracy’’ (Miller & Williams, 2003). The two teams proceeded systematically, reporting results both before and after receiving clarifications from the authors of the original study. The teams were able to approximately reproduce each other’s results, but not those of Miller and Williams. These discrepancies led to differences in the conclusions as to the conditions under which seasonal damping outperforms classical decomposition. The paper specifies the forecasting methods employed using a flowchart. It is argued that this approach to method documentation is complementary to the provision of computer code, as it is accessible to a broader audience of forecasting practitioners and researchers. The significance of this research lies not only in its lessons for seasonal forecasting but also, more generally, in its approach to the reproduction of forecasting research

Supply chain forecasting when information is not shared

The operations management literature is abundant in discussions on the benefits of information sharing in supply chains. However, there are many supply chains where information may not be shared due to constraints such as compatibility of information systems, information quality, trust and confidentiality. Furthermore, a steady stream of papers has explored a phenomenon known as Downstream Demand Inference (DDI) where the upstream member in a supply chain can infer the downstream demand without the need for a formal information sharing mechanism. Recent research has shown that, under more realistic circumstances, DDI is not possible with optimal forecasting methods or Single Exponential Smoothing but is possible when supply chains use a Simple Moving Average (SMA) method. In this paper, we evaluate a simple DDI strategy based on SMA for supply chains where information cannot be shared. This strategy allows the upstream member in the supply chain to infer the consumer demand mathematically rather than it being shared. We compare the DDI strategy with the No Information Sharing (NIS) strategy and an optimal Forecast Information Sharing (FIS) strategy in the supply chain. The comparison is made analytically and by experimentation on real sales data from a major European supermarket located in Germany. We show that using the DDI strategy improves on NIS by reducing the Mean Square Error (MSE) of the forecasts, and cutting inventory costs in the supply chain

The value of regulating returns for enhancing the dynamic behaviour of hybrid manufacturing-remanufacturing systems

Several studies have determined that product returns positively impact on the dynamics of hybrid manufacturing-remanufacturing systems, provided that they are perfectly correlated with demand. By considering imperfect correlation, we observe that intrinsic variations of returns may dramatically deteriorate the operational performance of these closed-loop supply chains. To cope with such added complexity, we propose a structure for controlling the reverse flow through the recoverable stock. The developed mechanism, in the form of a prefilter, is designed to leverage the known positive consequences of the deterministic component of the returns and to buffer the harmful impact of their stochastic component. We show that this outperforms both the benchmark push system and a baseline solution consisting of regulating all the returns. Consequently, we demonstrate that the operation of the production system is greatly smoothed and inventory is better managed. By developing a new framework for measuring the dynamics of closed-loop supply chains, we show that a significant reduction in the net stock, manufacturing, and remanufacturing variances can be achieved, which undoubtedly has implications both for stock reduction and production stabilization. Thus, the known benefits of circular economy models are strengthened, both economically and environmentally

The effect of returns volume uncertainty on the dynamic performance of closed-loop supply chains

We investigate the dynamics of a hybrid manufacturing/remanufacturing system (HMRS) by exploring the impact of the average return yield and uncertainty in returns volume. Through modelling and simulation techniques, we measure the long-term variability of end-product inventories and orders issued, given its negative impact on the operational performance of supply chains, as well as the average net stock and the average backlog, in order to consider the key trade-off between service level and holding requirements. In this regard, prior studies have observed that returns may positively impact the dynamic behaviour of the HMRS. We demonstrate that this occurs as long as the intrinsic uncertainty in the volume of returns is low —increasing the return yield results in decreased fluctuations in production, which enhances the operation of the closed-loop system. Interestingly, we observe a U-shaped relationship between the inventory performance and the return yield. However, the dynamics of the supply chain may significantly suffer from returns volume uncertainty through the damaging Bullwhip phenomenon. Under this scenario, the relationship between the average return yield and the intrinsic returns volume variability determines the operational performance of closed-loop supply chains in comparison with traditional (open-loop) systems. In this sense, this research adds to the still very limited literature on the dynamic behaviour of closed-loop supply chains, whose importance is enormously growing in the current production model evolving from a linear to a circular architecture

Non-stationary demand forecasting by cross-sectional aggregation

In this paper the relative effectiveness of top-down (TD) versus bottom-up (BU) approaches is compared for cross-sectionally forecasting aggregate and sub-aggregate demand. We assume that the sub-aggregate demand follows a non-stationary Integrated Moving Average (IMA) process of order one and a Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) procedure is used to extrapolate future requirements. Such demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry (in addition to being the optimal estimator for an IMA process). Theoretical variances of forecast error are derived for the BU and TD approach in order to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation at both the aggregate and sub-aggregate level, in addition to empirically validating our findings on a real dataset from a European superstore. The results demonstrate the increased benefit resulting from cross-sectional forecasting in a non-stationary environment than in a stationary one. Valuable insights are offered to demand planners and the paper closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved