Trade and Foreign Direct Investment under Open-door Policies in Myanmar for 2011-2019

埼玉大学博士(経済学)107pSince 2011, Myanmar has been moved forward for the process of democratic transition and has entered a new regime of market-based economy with open-door policies from a centralized-market economy. Throughout the process of democratic transition in Myanmar for 2011-2020, it is time to evaluate economic performances under the new economic regime. For the economic evaluation, foreign trade, trade facilitation, inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and their impacts on economic development are important aspects. To explore the foreign trade and inward FDI effects in Myanmar, this dissertation is separated into two parts. Part I aims to examine two main research questions about foreign trade and trade logistics: whether Myanmar's manufacturing exports have recovered towards the gravity-trade-standard of ASEAN after economic sanctions were lifted; and whether there is a linkage between logistics performance and participation in global value chains (GVC) of emerging economies of ASEAN, and if so, how to encounter the challenges of low logistics performances of Myanmar in a participation of GVC. The first research question is analyzed by applying in-sample and out-of-sample approaches to the gravity trade model. The study targets the analytical period from the sanction period of 2004-2012 to post-sanction period of 2013-2018 in Myanmar. The main findings are summarized as follows. First, both in-sample and the out-of-sample estimations could imply the validity of the expected gravity trade model in emerging ASEAN manufacturing exports. Second, the deviation of Myanmar's manufacturing export to gravity trade standard of western countries and ASEAN countries is found even after the sanction period. As a result, the low institutional quality and the Dutch Disease effect are identified as the deviation factors from gravity trade standard in western countries but not fully in the other ASEAN countries. It then comes to consider Myanmar's sluggish participation in the GVC as an additional deviation factor in ASEAN countries. The second empirical analysis of the linkage between logistics performances and GVC backward participation (expressed by foreign value added in exports) of eight emerging ASEAN economies is investigated by adopting a “structural” gravity model setting. Under the “fragmentation” theory, the logistics performances of the host country is considered as a component of service-link costs. The study found the large gap in GVC backward participation between forerunners (e.g., Malaysia and Thailand) and latecomers (e.g., Myanmar, Cambodia, and Lao PDR) of ASEAN could be explained by logistics performance effects to some extent. Based on this result, the study explores the challenges of Myanmar's logistics sector which is important in its participation in GVC. In this respect, the logistics performances of Myanmar is investigated from their input and output perspectives: areas of policy regulations as the input component to supply chain and supply chain performance outcomes as output. Additionally, the logistics services in corridor-based SEZ and cross-border gates of Myanmar are examined as the case study. As a result, Myanmar needs to tackle those challenges of logistics services not only by enhancing the status of input and output supply chain but also by building logistics hub in economics corridors and cross-border trade zones to increase the degree of its GVC participation. Part II analyzes the quantitative relationships among inward FDI, economic growth, domestic investment and employment under the open-door policies in Myanmar by applying a panel vector-autoregressive model framework from 2012 to 2018. To examine the impacts of inward FDI in Myanmar, three empirical analysis are investigated as follows: whether FDI causes economic growth or economic growth induces the FDI, whether the inward FDI crowds in or crowds out domestic investment, and whether FDI have positive effects on domestic employment or not. The first empirical analysis is carried out at the regional level by dividing states and regions according to the FDI-value intensity and number of industrial zones. The empirical results are found as follows: bidirectional positive causality between FDI and economic growth in FDI-high-intensive region; unilateral positive causality from economic growth to FDI in FDI-middle-intensive region; and negative causality from FDI to economic growth and positive causality from economic growth to FDI in FDI-low-intensive regions. Those differences in FDI-economic relationship among the regions reveals the existence of the gap in their agglomeration effects. The second empirical analysis is examined at the sectoral level: total sector including oil and gas and non-oil and gas sector. It shows the result of the crowding-in effect of FDI on domestic investment only in non-oil and gas sector. The third empirical analysis on FDI-employment relationship is investigated on the regional level. The result shows that the employment has positive effects on FDI in all the regions whereas the impact of FDI on employment is insensitive due to the underutilization of labor forces. This result implies the urgent need to upgrade the capacity of human capital to internalize the positive effects of FDI. Based on the empirical findings of Part I and Part II, it can be concluded as follows. First, Myanmar remains inactive in foreign trade and inward FDI status in comparison with the other ASEAN economies due to its lack of institutional quality, logistics performances and human capital, which has been affected by the former political effect on economic setting. Thus, there is much room for Myanmar to improve these areas to enhance its trade and FDI. Second, the manufacturing sector needs to be emphasized not only by the enhancement of trade liberalization, trade promotion and trade facilitation but also by speeding up the inducement of inward FDI. Third, SEZs in border areas of Myanmar needs to be developed successfully in accordance with the link of economic corridor in order to take full advantage of its strategic location. In this regard, Myanmar is expected to fully utilize its trade and investment potential to catch up with other emerging ASEAN economies.Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 8 Part I Foreign Trade in Myanmar ........................................................................................ 11 Chapter I Myanmar's Manufacturing Exports after the Lifting of Economic Sanctions .................................................................................................................................................. 11 　1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 11 　1.2 Literature Review and Contribution .......................................................................... 12 　1.3 Empirics ........................................................................................................................ 15 　1.4 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................ 26 Chapter II Participation in Global Value Chains and Logistics Performance in Emerging ASEAN Economies ................................................................................................................. 28 　2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 28 　2.2 GVC backward participation in emerging ASEAN economies................................ 31 　2.3 Empirics ........................................................................................................................ 33 　2.4 Estimation Outcomes ................................................................................................... 36 　2.5 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................ 38 Chapter III Case studies: Participation in Global Value Chains and Logistics Performance in Myanmar ..................................................................................................... 40 　3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 40 　3.2 Areas for Policy Regulations (Inputs) ......................................................................... 41 　3.3 Supply Chain Performance Outcomes ....................................................................... 43 　3.4 Case Study: Corridor based SEZ and Cross-border Gates ...................................... 44 　3.5 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................ 45 PART II Inward FDI and Its Effects in Myanmar ............................................................. 47 Chapter IV Myanmar's Inward Foreign Direct Investment ............................................. 47 　4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 47 　4.2 Literature Review and Contribution .......................................................................... 50 　4.3 Empirics ........................................................................................................................ 52 　4.4 Estimation Outcomes ................................................................................................... 55 　4.5 Chapter Summary ........................................................................................................ 58 An Addendum to Chapter IV Employment Effects of Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Myanmar ............................................................................................................................ 60 　A4.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 60 　A4.2. Empirical Results...................................................................................................... 60 　A4.3. Interpretations .......................................................................................................... 61 Summary and Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 63 References ............................................................................................................................... 66指導教員 : 田口博之textapplication/pdfdoctoral thesi

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