[[alternative]]A Study of the Competition Strategies Among Intercity Modes in the Case of Introducing High Speed Rail

計畫編號：NSC94-2416-H032-003研究期間：200508~200607研究經費：492,000[[abstract]]傳統的存貨模式大都是基於買方或賣方單方面的考量，來探討生產及訂購策略等問 題，如此往往使雙方資訊無法整合而造成損失。近年來，及時化的製造策略受到廣泛 利用，由於其專注於買方與賣方的整合，因此需要買方與賣方能夠充分合作，方可利 用雙方資訊的整合，訂定合理的長期採購合約，做到真正的及時化採購，從而降低相 關存貨系統的總成本。 近年來，有關整合性的存貨模式愈來愈受到重視。過去的相關研究大多著重於買賣 雙方最適訂購、生產與運送批量的決定，並未考慮到當批量中含有不良品時對整合買 賣雙方總成本的影響。在實務上，因為生產製造過程的瑕疵，管理維護不當，或是運 送過程的不小心，買方經常會在訂購批量中發現不良品。 本計劃主要是考慮當需求不確定，且前置時間的長度可控制及買方收到的批量中含 有不良品的情況下，如何整合買方和賣方的製造與訂購策略，並提出兩個整合存貨模 型。在本研究中，我們採部份檢查(sub-lot inspection)的策略來檢查批量中的不良品項。 針對此檢查策略，我們假設前置時間內的需求量服從常態分配，其次探討前置時間內需 求量的機率分配為未知的情形，並且利用大中取小分配不拘程序求解。我們亦分別針對 此兩種情形(前置時間內需求量的機率分配為常態分配或分配不拘)建立求得最適生 產、訂購策略之演算法，並利用數值範例說明買賣雙方整合後的利益，確實是高於整合 前的個別利益。同時，本研究也將分析各參數變動對於決策所造成的影響，作為提供給 管理者之重要參考依據。[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員

Strategic planning of Taiwan railway in competing with Taiwan high speed rail : A game theory approach

[[abstract]]Railways have been Taiwan's most efficient transportation mode in terms of travel costs and energy consumption in comparison with other highway competitors. However, the competition advantages of Taiwan Railways (TR) may soon be challenged by Taiwan High Speed Railway (THSR). As one of the major competitors in the transportation market of Taiwan's western corridor, TR would have to apply new market segmentation strategies in competing with THSR. These strategies may include: 1) providing more commuting train services for local commuters and transfer passengers at major THSR stations; and 2) applying yield management techniques for pricing reserved and non-reserved passengers during peak and off-peak periods. On the other hand, THSR would have to provide high-quality connection services between their stations and downtown areas to attract passengers. To find new market equilibrium between THSR and TR, we use non-cooperative game approach to seek out the optimal pricing strategies for long-distance train services. Then, we proposed various alternatives of connection services and evaluated these alternatives by applying market share models.[[notice]]補正完畢[[conferencetype]]國際[[conferencedate]]20051125~20051126[[booktype]]紙本[[iscallforpapers]]

[[alternative]]Modeling Competition Games among Air Freight Carriers

計畫編號：NSC92-2416-H032-002研究期間：200308~200407研究經費：457,000[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員

Combining laboratory and field data in rail fatigue analysis

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1993.Includes bibliographical references (p. 198-201).[[abstract]]Rail fatigue is one of the key factors affecting rail service life. Once a defected rail was detected, it will be replaced immediately to avoid derailment. Fatigue failures cost railroads in various aspects such as repairs, traffic delays, and accidents, and also have an impact on the reliability of rail service. The purpose of rail fatigue analysis is to provide assessment of maintenance and operations strategies in regard to rail fatigue. Because the field data regarding rail fatigue are often limited, the model calibrated based on field data may not be reliable for predicting future deterioration conditions. In addition, the field data may be measured with error and subject to temporal correlation. Therefore, the Phoenix model which has been developed based on theories of material behavior and laboratory results was used as a supplemental tool to analyze rail fatigue. The data generated from the Phoenix model does not have the disadvantages as those in the field data. However, the Phoenix model has not yet been validated by the field data and the results could be biased. Thus, the goal of this research is to develop a reliable rail fatigue model by combining both data sources. Assuming no spatial correlation among defects, the rail fatigue model was formulated as a spatial Poisson with a defe t occurrence rate which depends on the usage of rail and factors affecting fatigue. The defect rate was also formulated to incorporate multiple failure types and dynamic explanatory variables. The model parameters calibrated to the Phoenix output and to the field data were both in agreement with the a priori expectation of fatigue behavior. By assuming that the Phoenix model was biased, the unbiased parameters for the combined model and the biases were simultaneously estimated by pooling both data sources. Finally, this research applies the combined model to analyze the effects of maintenance and operation practices regarding fatigue failures. Thesis supervisor: Dr. Moshe E. Ben-Akiva Title: Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineerin

[[alternative]]A Game Theory Approach for Strategic Pricing of Public Parking Lots

計畫編號：NSC93-2416-H032-003研究期間：200408~200507研究經費：313,000[[abstract]]近年來由於個人化運輸工具日趨普及，不但造成都會區交通擁塞，亦造成停車 問題日趨嚴重。停車費率雖為調節停車供需的有效工具，但目前都市中心區公有停 車場費率偏低，而使民營停車場因費率過高而閒置，造成停車空間更形不足。為改 善此一問題，公有停車場必需解除費率管制，使得與民營停車場得與公有停車場公 平競爭，而其費率則應取決於市場之供需情況。因此，具有寡占特性及無轉移性的 停車場經營事業，可應用賽局理論求得公有停車場與民營停車場之均衡費率。 本計畫首先回顧目前都市停車管理之相關法規與策略；其次透過停車需求調 查，瞭解不同區域影響停車場供需之因素，以建構合理的停車場報酬函數。停車場 報酬函數包括區位總停車需求，駕駛對不同停車方案(含路邊停車與違規停車)之選 擇行為，以及停車場之成本函數。其中，駕駛選擇模式除考慮區位、費率、步行距 離與停車需求特性外，亦將納入違規停車之取締風險。至於停車場之成本函數，除 考慮路邊與路外，公營與民營停車場在土地與經營成本之差異外，也將探討若公營 停車場考慮委外經營時，如何透露徵收停車場標金或規費方式，將社會成本納入， 使得公營與民營停車場得以在同樣的條件下競爭。 其次，本研究將透過靜態與動態賽局之情境求解市場均衡下之停車費率。最後， 本計畫將以台北市部分地區為例，進行實証分析。[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員

On the Construction of Communication Base Station from the Perspective of Public Goods -A Case Study of Zhangzhou City

近年来，公用移动通信快速发展，并有不断提速的迹象。来自4G-Reports提供的报告，4G网络正在变得越来越流行；数据显示，4G用户数目不仅已经突破了10亿，而且4G网络的数量也在增长，根据2016年第四季度的报告GlobalLTEPricingTariffTracker，4G用户总数已经达到了10.5亿，其中中国、美国和日本的用户占到近2/3。国内，随着2013年12月4日，工业和信息化部向三家通信运营商颁发4G牌照（TD-LTE），以及2014年工信部先后分两批次批准中国电信和中国联通分别在40个城市开展LTE-FDD和TD-LTE混合组网试，国内三大通信运营商的4G网络陆续投入商用，并且...Public Mobile Communication is currently one of the fastest growing, the most widely used and the most cutting-edge fields of communication. According to reports provided by 4G-Reports, 4G network is becoming increasingly popular. Just as the data displays, not only is the number of 4G users has hit one billion, the number of 4G networks is also growing. According to the report Global LTE Pricing ...学位：公共管理硕士院系专业：公共事务学院_公共管理硕士学号：1392013115040

[[alternative]]A Study of Optimal Fares and Frequency for Freeway Bus Companies in Oligopoly Markets

計畫編號：NSC91-2416-H032-004研究期間：200208~200307研究經費：511,000[[sponsorship]]行政院國家科學委員

測定精度の偏り軽減のための等質適応型テストの提案

適応型テストとは，受検者の能力を逐次的に推定し，その能力に応じて測定精度が最も高い項目を出題するコンピュータ・テスティングの出題形式である．この手法では，易しすぎる項目や難しすぎる項目の出題が減少するため，受検者の測定精度を減少させずに受検時間や項目数を軽減できる．しかし，従来の適応型テストでは，能力が同等な受検者には全く同じ項目群が出題される可能性が高く，実際に適応型テストを導入しているSPIやGTECの重要な問題になっている．本研究では，能力が同等な受検者であっても異なる項目を同一の測定精度を保ちつつ適応的に出題できる等質適応型テストを提案する．具体的には，提案手法では次のように項目出題を行う．1）2017年時点で最先端の複数等質テスト構成手法を用いて，異なる項目で構成されるが測定精度が等質になるような等質テストを多数構成する．2）受検者ごとに異なる等質テストを一つ割り当て，そのテスト内の項目集合をアイテムバンクとみなして適応型テストを実施する．本論では，シミュレーション実験と実データを用いた実験により提案手法の有効性を示す．Adaptive testing is a question format of computer testing that estimates an examinee\u27s ability sequentially and which produces question items with the highest estimation accuracy according to the examinee\u27s ability. The technique mitigates the creation of overly easy or overly difficult questions, which can reduce the time spent on a test, and reduces the number of items without reducing the estimation accuracy for the examinee\u27s ability. However, in conventional adaptive tests, it is highly likely that the exact same group of items will be prepared for examinees who have equivalent ability. The tests cannot be used practically under circumstances by which the same learner can take a test multiple times, such as SPI and GTEC. In this paper, we propose a multiple equivalent adaptive test that adaptively creates different items for examinees even if those with equivalent capabilities, maintaining the same evaluation accuracy. Specifically, we follow the procedure outlined below. 1) We compose an item cluster for a multiple equivalent test based on the amount of test information so that the measurement accuracy for examinees\u27ability can be equivalent despite consisting of different items. To compose a multiple equivalent test, we use a technique that employs the maximum clique problem to maximize the number of compositions from items within an item bank. 2) Regarding an item cluster for a multiple equivalent test as an item bank, we propose a multiple equivalent adaptive test that estimates the value of an examinee\u27s ability sequentially and which selects items with the greatest amount of information for the value of ability from an item cluster for a multiple equivalent test. This paper presents the effectiveness of the technique through a simulation experiment and with item banks used by actual test providers