The General Equilibrium Effect of Real-estate Price Fluctuation on Macroeconomic

经过多年的高速增长，房地产业已发展成为当今中国各大城市的支柱产业，成为推动中国经济增长的一支重要力量。但在房地产业高速增长的同时，持续飙升的房价不但带来严重的社会问题，而且为宏观经济的大幅波动埋下严重的隐患。2007年美国次贷危机爆发以来，受金融危机及全球经济回落的影响，拉动我国经济增长“三驾马车”中的出口和国内投资都出现不同程度的回落，经济下行的风险进一步加大。在此情形下，住房价格大幅下跌对金融及经济可能带来的巨大冲击更是牵动着中国经济的神经。 房地产市场波动成为我国经济波动的重要原因已是不争的事实，而房地产业与国民经济系统之间复杂的相互作用机理使得对房地产业的管理与调控成为一项复杂的系统...After many years of rapid growth, the real estate industry has already developed into one of the pillar industries in China's major cities, and its growth has already become an important drive force in China's economic growth. However, in the process of rapid growth of real estate industry, the continuously rising housing price has not only caused some serious social problems, but also brought gre...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院金融系_金融工程学号：1562006015307

信息、政策冲击和中国股票、债券及外汇市场一体化——基于AG-DCC模型的金融市场动态相关性分析

本文运用Cappiello etal.(2006)提出的AG-DCC模型对中国金融市场的研究发现,中国股票、债券和外汇市场间存在明显的动态相关性,虽然"正向冲击"和"负向冲击"对金融市场波动并不产生明显的非对称效应,但对市场间动态相关性有着显著的影响,而且信息和政策冲击反映在动态相关性的结构变化上。最后,用平均动态相关性作为一体化指标对中国金融市场的考察发现,相对于欧盟市场间,中国股票市场一体化程度相当高,但股票和债券、股票和外汇以及债券和外汇市场间的一体化程度有待提高

中国2005年社会核算矩阵的构建及其应用

文章在构建中国2005年宏观及居民账户细分的社会核算矩阵的基础上,利用SAM乘数模型,考察了各类产业的产出及居民收入效应以及外生冲击和转移支付的收入再分配效应。结果显示,产出和居民收入乘数较高的行业分别是那些与其他行业具有较高关联度的行业和劳动密集型行业;中国当前的经济增长结构在一定程度上有利于改善当前城镇收入差距过大的现状,但不利于缩小城镇居民和农村居民之间的收入差距;转移支付对改善当前城镇居民收入差距过大的现实有一定的促进作用,但改善力度不大,而转移支付对缩小城乡收入差距没有起到明显的积极作用。国家自然科学基金资助项目(70671086

The Analysis of Sectoral Output and Household Income Multipliers Based on Social Accounting Matrix of Xiamen City

基于厦门市2002年投入产出表及其他相关数据,笔者构建了厦门市2002年的宏观社会核算矩阵,并对居民账户进行了细分。在此基础上,利用基于社会核算矩阵的SAM乘数模型,本文考察了各类产业在外生冲击下的产出效应和居民收入效应,并分析了外生冲击及转移支付对居民收入分配结构的影响。结果显示,产出乘数和居民收入乘数较高的行业分别是那些与其他行业具有较高关联度的行业和对社会就业带动作用较大的劳动密集型行业;厦门市当前经济的结构和转移分配都有利于改善当前居民收入差距过大的现状,但前者的效应不大。Based on the input-output table of Xiamen city in 2002 and other related data,this paper constructs a social accounting matrix(SAM).In this SAM,we classify the urban households' accounts by their income levels.Further,we study the output and household income impacts of each sector under exogenous shocks using SAM multiplier model,and also analyze the impacts of exogenous shock and transfer payment on the household income distribution structure.The results show that the sectors with higher output and household income multipliers are those which have higher association with others or labor-density sectors;the Xiamen city's current economic structure and transfer payment mode are in favor of improving the unequal household income situation at present.However,the former's effect is not large.国家自然科学基金资助项目(项目批准号:70671086

Finance Support and Test of Housing Price Rising:Analysis Based on VEC Model

金融对房地产的支持是否过度是判断当前房价波动的金融风险可能性及其程度的重要依据。通过建立向量误差修正模型并借助脉冲响应分析和方差分解,重点对中国近年来住房价格上涨中的金融因素进行分析。结果表明:金融对房地产业低利率成本的信贷支持、土地价格上涨以及投机因素是推动房价上涨的主要因素。在当前房地产市场低迷的情况下,房价波动的加剧可能给金融及经济稳定带来冲击。Whether there exists excessive financial support on real estate industry is an important evidence to estimate the probability and extent of financial risk with the fluctuation of housing price.With Vector Error Correction Model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper analyzes the finance factors that cause the prompt rise of house price in China.The results show that credit support of low interest rate from the bank system, the rising of land price and speculation are the main reasons that cause housing price to rise.Thus in face of the housing downturns, the increase of house price fluctuation may bring adverse impact on the stability of financial industry and economy.国家自然科学基金资助项目“基于CGE模型房地产市场变化影响及政策模拟分析”(项目批准号:70671086)的阶段性研究成

The Relation between Housing Price Rising and Its Influencial Factors——Analysis Based on Vector Error Correction Model

通过建立向量误差修正模型,对中国近年来住房价格持续上涨的原因进行了分析。结果表明,土地价格的快速上涨、金融对房地产业的过度支持以及在住房价格继续上涨预期刺激下的投机因素是中国住房价格上涨过快的主要原因。近年来中国住房价格的持续快速上涨在很大程度上是一种泡沫现象。With vector error correction model,we analyze the reasons that cause the prompt rising of housing price in China.The results shows that the prompt rise of land price,excess supportive on real-estate of finance and speculation with the expectation of continuing rising of housing price were the main reasons that caused housing price continue to rise,to a great extent,the continue rise of housing price in China in recent years was a phenomenon of bubble.国家自然科学基金项目《基于CGE模型的房地产市场变化影响及其政策模拟分析》(70671086

Comparative analysis of the industrial relationship and status of real estate industry:The cases of the situation in Beijing,Shanghai and Xiamen city

利用投入产出分析方法,对北京、上海及厦门三地的房地产业与国民经济各产业部门之间的关联关系以及其在整个经济中的地位进行了较为全面的比较.结果显示,北京和上海房地产业发展相对成熟,房地产业的服务化程度和专业化水平都比较高,而厦门市房地产业发展则相对滞后,其增长仍停留在数量扩张的粗放阶段;北京和上海房地产业与建筑业关联度不高而过度依赖于金融业,与此相反,厦门市房地产业与建筑业高度关联而与金融业关联度非常弱;与我们通常的观点相反,房地产业对国民经济的带动作用普遍较弱.Using input-output technique,we carried out a comparative analysis on industrial relationship between real estate and other industries and the status of real estate industry in the whole national economy in Beijing,Shanghai and Xiamen.The result shows that,the development of real estate industry in Beijing and Shanghai is relatively mature,the servitization degree and specialization level in real estate industry are both very high,but the development of that in Xiamen is still in it's quantity growth stage;The industry correlation between real estate and architecture industry is not very high and the real estate industry rely excessively on financial industry in Beijing and Shanghai,Contrary to that in Beijing and Shanghai,the industry correlation between real estate and architecture industry is extremely high but that between real estate and financial industry is extremely weak in Xiamen;Opposite with our usual viewpoint,the driving effect of real estate industry on the whole national economy is generally weak.国家自然科学基金(70671086