The Relation between Housing Price Rising and Its Influencial Factors——Analysis Based on Vector Error Correction Model

Abstract

通过建立向量误差修正模型,对中国近年来住房价格持续上涨的原因进行了分析。结果表明,土地价格的快速上涨、金融对房地产业的过度支持以及在住房价格继续上涨预期刺激下的投机因素是中国住房价格上涨过快的主要原因。近年来中国住房价格的持续快速上涨在很大程度上是一种泡沫现象。With vector error correction model,we analyze the reasons that cause the prompt rising of housing price in China.The results shows that the prompt rise of land price,excess supportive on real-estate of finance and speculation with the expectation of continuing rising of housing price were the main reasons that caused housing price continue to rise,to a great extent,the continue rise of housing price in China in recent years was a phenomenon of bubble.国家自然科学基金项目《基于CGE模型的房地产市场变化影响及其政策模拟分析》(70671086

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