Driving Factors for Growth of Energy Demand During Economic Development in China

正确认识能源需求的刚性和经济发展的阶段性，是中国制定节能减排战略的必要前提。这客观上决定了中国必须从控制碳排放增量入手，实施以节能为主、清洁能源发展为辅的低碳经济转型战略和减排政策。然而，在能源供需矛盾和碳减排的国内外压力日益尖锐的背景下，如何控制能源需求的过快增长、并据此制定科学合理的节能减排政策，是中国政府“十二五”期间，乃至今后更长一段时期内应对能源安全和环境经济可持续发展的首要课题之一。 结合国内外的能源需求研究，本文通过协整模型建立了能源需求与GDP、经济结构、人口和能源价格之间的长期均衡关系。运用MonteCarlo模拟技术从风险分析的角度，突破了传统的静态预测，在动态中不仅实现...Correct understanding of the rigidity of energy requirement and the stage of economic development is the necessary premise of developing energy saving and emission reduction strategies in China. It is objectively decided that China must start with controlling the increasing carbon emission, implementing emission reduction policies and low-carbon economy strategy which considers energy saving as p...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院中国能源经济研究中心_能源经济学学号：3132008015030

Study on Market Discipline and Risk-Taking Behavior of Commercial Bank

市场约束也称为“市场纪律”，是巴塞尔协议中银行监管的第三支柱，是指包括银行存款人、债权人、股东、交易对手方等在内的银行利益相关者，出于自身利益的考虑，借助银行的信息披露和有关社会中介机构，如会计师事务所、审计师事务所、信用评估机构和投资咨询公司等的帮助，通过自觉提供监督和实施对银行活动的约束，以数量、价格等直接约束或者促使政府监管机构加强对银行的审慎监管的间接约束，来迫使银行选择安全稳健经营的过程。本文试图在借鉴前人相关研究的基础上，对市场约束与商业银行风险承担的关系进行系统的理论与实证的研究，以弥补现有研究的不足，并为具体实践提供指导。 在对既有文献进行全面梳理的基础上，本文研究了市场约束...Market discipline is the third pillar of Basel Accord. In this paper we define market discipline as the mechanism via which bank stakeholders including depositors, shareholders,creditors,counterparty and so forth monitor and discipline excessive risk-taking behavior of banks by price-based or quantity-based approach with the help of information disclosure and accounting firms, auditing firms,credi...学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院金融系_金融学(含保险学)学号：1562009015344

Driving Factors for Increment of Refined Oil Demand in China

运用二阶klEM(即资本、劳动、能源、原料)投入产出结构分解法,本文将汽油、煤油、柴油和燃料油的需求增长分解为各种驱动因素的加权平均贡献之和。研究结果表明:1997-2007年,导致全社会四种成品油需求增长10 200万吨的正向驱动因素及其贡献率,为国内最终需求因素(165.9%)、国内中间需求因素(28.3%)和出口贸易因素(94.5%),负向驱动因素为技术进步因素(-178.6%)和进口替代因素(-10.0%)。In this paper,input-output structural decomposition analysis incorporating a two-tier KLEM(i.e.,Capital,Labor,Energy,Material) production function framework is used to decompose the refined oil demand in China into the weighted contribution from different kinds of driving factors.The refined oil includes gasoline,kerosene,diesel oil and fuel oil.The results show that the total demand of four kinds of refined oil products in China experienced an increase of 102 million tons from 1997 to 2007.The positive driving factors are final demand(average contribution,165.9%),intermediate demand(28.3%) and export(94.5%),the negative driving factors are technological progress(-178.6%) and import substitution(-10.0%).国家社会科学基金重大项目《美、日等西方国家新能源政策跟踪及我国低碳经济研究》;项目编号:ZD05

金融创新、R&D与经济增长

在Uzawa(1965)、Lucas(1988)和Jones(1995)内生增长的模型的基础上,引入金融创新部门,研究了金融创新、R&D与经济增长的关系。金融创新直接影响经济增长率,还会通过对技术创新的影响,间接地影响到经济的增长。同时,三部门人力资本分配的变动受到生产函数中参数的影响。不同的金融创新产品对R&D和经济增长的影响也有所不同

金融监管治理的激励机制研究

金融监管治理是公共治理在金融监管领域的具体表现。基于风险规避代理人与风险中性委托人的特征,对监管者的激励机制设计问题进行的研究发现,在完全信息条件下,代理人的基本收益等于参与收入与努力成本之和;在不完全信息条件下,代理人的收益与风险规避系数等相关,而委托人的期望收益则出现下降。因此,在不完全信息条件下,必须通过相应的激励方案来促使代理人能够付出完全的努力,并将问责惩罚机制纳入到当前的金融监管绩效考核中

国内需求、技术进步和进出口贸易对中国电力消费增长的影响分析

本文利用投入产出结构分解法和加权平均值法,从国内需求、技术进步和进出口贸易等方面,将中国产业以及金属、电力、建材和化工产业的电力消费增量分解为10种影响因素的加权平均和。结果表明:导致1997~2007年电力消费增长190%的正向影响因素为国内最终需求的成长、出口的成长、原料需求的成长、能源需求的替代和成长,其加权平均贡献率分别为145.9%、104.3%、23.6%、15.7%和5.3%;负向影响因素为技术进步、原料需求的替代、进口替代、国内最终需求的结构和出口的结构调整,其加权平均贡献率分别为-67.6%、-15.1%、-10.5%、-7.2%和-4.3%。“中国低碳应对专题”的阶段性成果;新华都商学院能源经济与低碳发展研究院低碳项目;国家社科基金重大项目(09&ZD050);国家社科基金重点项目(08AJY022);教育部重大项目(10JZD0018);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金的资助(2010221051

厦门市儿童溺水死亡流行病学调查分析

目的了解厦门市儿童溺水死亡(溺死)的流行病学特征及危险因素,探索有效的干预措施。方法采用问卷调查收集溺死儿童资料,用HIErArCHICAl MOdEl法和gEnErAl MOdEl法对危险因素进行筛选分析。结果共收集2001-2009年溺水死亡儿童95例,其中男孩占74.7%,小学生占63.2%,不会游泳者占78.9%;主要发生地在池塘、溪流或沟渠;70.5%发生在夏秋季;80%儿童溺死时无人监管;溺死儿童的父母多数文化程度低,家庭收入偏低;死亡的危险因素为:男孩、4~6年级小学生、父亲在40岁以上和下午。结论应采取有针对性的干预措施,控制危险因素,减少儿童溺死的发生

Investigation on the iodine status among the population in rural and urban areas of Xiamen in 2013

目的了解碘盐新标准实施后农村和城市人群的碘营养现况,为有效落实科学补碘防控策略提供依据。方法在农村和城市调查点各抽取1个镇的1个村,在每个村采集自来水厂出厂水和末梢水各2份;抽取30户以上居民,采集各户家庭食用盐,用3日称量法测算各户居民人均食盐摄入量;抽取18-45岁成人50名以上,采集尿样。在抽中的镇随机选择8-10岁儿童(男女各半)、孕妇和哺乳期妇女各50名以上,采集尿样。测定盐碘、尿碘和水碘含量。结果农村和城市自来水末梢水水碘含量均值分别为4.5μg/L和6.0μg/L;居民人均每日食用盐摄入量中位数分别为7.0和5.6g;8~10岁儿童尿碘中位数分别为152.0和181.2μg/L;哺乳妇尿碘中位数分别为108.3和107.7μg/L;18-45岁成人尿碘中位数分别为121.1和147.4μg/L;孕妇尿碘中位数分别为116.0和112.2μg/L,尿碘含量低于150μg/L的比例分别达67.9%和64%;除农村人均每日食用盐摄入量高于城市,农村18-45岁成人尿碘水平低于城市外,其他指标农村和城市间差异无显著性。结论厦门市仍是缺碘地区,在现有碘盐标准下,8-10岁儿童、18-45岁成人、哺乳期妇女的碘营养处于适宜水平,但孕妇的碘营养不足,要开展针对孕期人群的碘营养监测和指导,杜绝碘缺乏所造成的危害。Objective To gain knowledge of the iodine status among the population in rural and urban areas after the implement of new standard for edible salt and to provide scientific evidence for the initiative of the iodine supplement strategy. Method 1 village / community was selected randomly from rural and urban area as research site respectively. 2 samples of treated water and tap water were collected respectively in both sites, 30 + houses were enrolled randomly and edible salt samples were collected. 3days weighed record was employed to estimate average salt daily intake. Urine sample was collected from 50 + adults aged from 18 to 45. Identical sample was also collected from 50 + children aged from 8 to 10( same amount of subjects in both genders),pregnant women, and lactating women respectively. Iodine level of water, salt, and urine was determined by laboratory assay.Results The iodine concentration of tap water in rural and urban areas was 4. 5 μg / L and 6. 0 μg / L,respectively. The median of average iodine intake in rural and urban areas was 7. 0 g and 5. 6 g, respectively. The median in urine iodine was 152. 0 μg / L and 181. 2 μg / L,respectively. This measurement in lactating women was 108. 3 μg / L and 107. 7 μg / L,respectively. And it was121. 1 μg / L and 147. 4 μg / L in adults aged 18 to 45, respectively. As for the pregnant women, the iodine level reached 116. 0μg /L and 112. 2 μg /L,respectively. The proportion of subjects has urine iodine level less than 150 μg /L reached 67. 9 % and 64 %, respectively. The average salt intake in rural area was higher than urban significantly, and the urine iodine level in adults aged 18 to 45 from rural area was significantly lower than urban. No significance was found in other comparison. Conclusion Through our investigation,Xiamen is still an iodine deficiency area. Under the implement of new edible salt standard, the iodine status in children aged 8 to 10, adults aged 18 to 45 and lactating women was adequate, however, we found that pregnant women enrolled in our study have iodine deficiency in some degrees. Therefore the iodine surveillance and dietary guidance should be performed among pregnant women to eliminate the harm caused by iodine deficiency

Iodine nutrition status of pregnant women in Xiamen City after adjusting iodized salt concentration

目的掌握gb 26878-2011《食用盐碘含量》标准执行后,厦门市妊娠期妇女碘营养状况,为卫生策略的制定提供依据。方法选择厦门市翔安区新店镇为调查点,调查妊娠期妇女食用新标准碘盐前后家中的碘盐覆盖率、合格碘盐食用率、尿碘、尿比重水平。结果基线调查及新标准实施后第1到第5次评估,妊娠期妇女家庭碘盐覆盖率均达到100%,盐碘中位数分别为27.8、25.7、24.3、23.7、24.3和25.8 Mg/kg,5次评估的碘盐含量均比基线调查明显减少(均P0.05);基线调查及5次评估测得尿比重均数分别为1.0123、1.0153、1.0180、1.0143、1.0141和1.0132。第1、2、3次评估的尿比重水平均高于基线调查尿比重水平(均P0.05)。结论新标准实施后,妊娠期妇女家中食盐含碘量显著减少,新标准实施前后妊娠期妇女均处于碘营养不足状态,需加强该人群碘营养,保障下一代健康。[Objective]To understand the iodine nutrition status of pregnant women after implementation of‘Edible Salt Iodine Content'( GB26878-2011),and provide evidence for developing health policy.[Methods]The coverage rate of iodized salt,proportion of households using adequately iodized salt,urine-iodine and specific gravity of urine in pregnant women were investigated in Xindian Town of Xiang'an District in Xiamen City which was chosen as the research spot.[Results]In the baseline investigation and during the first-fifth self-assessment stage after carrying out the new standards,the coverage rates of iodized salt were all 100% and the iodine median value in pregnant women was 27.8 mg / kg,25.7 mg / kg,24.3 mg / kg,23.7 mg / kg,24.3 mg / kg and25.8 mg / kg,respectively.The iodine contents in the first-fifth selfassessment stage were all less than that in the baseline survey( all P 0.05).The proportion of urine in pregnant women in the baseline investigation and the first- fifth self-assessment stage was 1.012 3,1.015 3,1.018 0,1.014 3,1.014 1 and 1.013 2 respectively.The proportions of urine in the first-third self-assessment stage were all higher than the baseline survey( all P 0.05).[Conclusion]After the implementation of the new standard,the iodinated content in salt in pregnant households has been reduced significantly.But the pregnant women are in iodine malnutrition before and after implementation of the new standard.It is necessary to strengthen the iodine nutrition for the health of the fetus.福建省科技厅自然基金面上项目(项目编号:2012D046); 厦门市科技局科技计划项目(项目编号:3502Z20124057

Study on the variation of the iodine nutrition status among children aged 8 to 10 and pregnant women in Xiamen city after the implement of new standard of iodized salt supply

目的研究新标碘盐供应前后厦门市沿海8-10岁儿童和孕妇的碘营养变化情况,为下一步碘缺乏病防控策略调整提供实证依据。方法在新标碘盐供应前及食用新标碘盐后的第3、6、9个月调查厦门市翔安区8-10岁学生和孕妇的尿碘、尿比重、碘盐覆盖率、碘盐合格率、合格碘盐食用率和居民日人均食盐摄入量。结果自来水水碘含量为4.2μg/l,基线调查、第二、三次评估日人均食盐摄入量均数分别为5.7、6.9、6.9 g;基线调查、第一、第二、三次评估,8-10岁学生碘盐合格率和合格碘盐食用率都分别为97.1、93.1、98.0和98.0,盐碘中位数分别为28.7、24.7、24.0、25.3 Mg/kg,尿碘中位数分别为132.0、177.7、181.7和134.5μg/l,尿比重均值分别为1.0157、1.0196、1.0213和1.0184;孕妇碘盐合格率分别为97.8%、84.6%、84.4%和90.2%,盐碘中位数分别为27.8、25.7、24.3和23.7Mg/kg,尿碘中位数分别为103.8、128.5、138.9和100.2μg/l,尿比重均值分别为1.0123、1.0153、1.0180和1.0143;尿碘与采样季节、气候及尿比重有关,尿碘值与尿比重呈正相关关系。结论新标碘盐实施前后,8-10岁儿童碘营养总体处于适宜水平,但孕妇碘营养均不足,要采取措施加强孕妇碘营养,保障人群健康素质。Objective To investigate the variation of iodine nutrition among children aged 8 to 10 and pregnant women after the implement of new standard of iodized salt supply, and to provide evidence for the further adjustment of control strategy against iodine deficiency disease.Method Survey has been performed to acquire the urinary iodine, specific gravity, iodized salt coverage rate, iodized salt qualification rate, qualified iodized salt consumption rate and average daily salt intake among children aged 8 to10 and pregnant women in Xiamen city.It has been conducted for 3 times repeatedly with a regular interval of 3 months after the implement of new standard.Results The tap water iodine content was 4.2 μg / L.The average daily salt intake of baseline survey, second and third assessment was 5.7, 6.9 and 6.9 g respectively.The iodized salt coverage rates among children aged 8 to10 and pregnant women were all reached 100% in 4 assessments.Among children aged 8 to 10, iodized salt qualification rate and qualified iodized salt consumption rate for 4 assessments were 97.1, 93.1, 98.0 and 98.0 respectively.Median of iodine salt samples was 28.7, 24.7, 24.0 and 25.3 mg / kg, respectively.The median of urinary iodine was 132.0,1 77.7, 181.7 and134.5 μg / L,respectively.The mean of specific gravity was 1.0184, 1.0157, 1.0196 and 1.0213, respectively.Among the pregnant women, the iodized salt qualification rate and qualified iodized salt consumption rate of pregnant women were 97.8, 84.6, 84.4 and 90.2%, respectively.Median of iodine salt samples was 27.8, 25.7, 24.3 and 23.7 mg / kg, respectively.Median of urinary iodine was 103.8, 128.5, 138.9 and 100.2 μg / L,respectively.Mean of specific gravity was 1.0123,1.0153,1.0180 and 1.0143, respectively.Urinary iodine was correlated with season of sampling, climate and specific gravity, and urinary iodine was positively correlated with specific gravity.Conclusion The iodine nutrition status of children aged 8 to 10 was remained in adequate level regardless of the implement of new standard of iodized salt.However, the results suggested that the corresponding indicator among pregnant women was in a relatively low level.Proper countermeasure should be taken to enhance the iodine su-pply among them and to further secure the quality of general population