Razvoj simulacijskega modela Kanarskih otokov za strateško odločanje

This paper deals with the system dynamics model for decision-making, related to strategic decisions for the development of the Canary Islands. The quantitative model incorporates relevant variables, which affect the sustainable development of the quality of life on the Canary Islands. The relationship between the variables was formalized in the influence matrix. The influence diagram defines the connection between the elements of the matrix. The Following submodels were considered: Population, Tourism market, Agriculture, Environment, and GDP. The program package Powersim was used to build the simulation model. Several strategic scenarios are described and their dynamic response was analyzed. Presently the model is in the validation phase.The initial results are promising according to the positive validation results. Key words: system dynamics, simulation, model, decision support system, sustainable development, tourismPrispevek obravnava razvoj modela sistemske dinamike za podporo odločanju na strateškem nivoju pri razvoju Kanarskih otokov. Kvantitativno modeliranje zajema relevantne spremenljivke, ki vplivajo na trajnostni razvoj in kvaliteto življenja na Kanarskih otokih. Relacije med ključnimi spremenljivkami so bile formalno opredeljene s pomočjo matrike vpliva. Opredeljen je bil vzročno posledični diagram, ki določa povezavo med elementi matrike. Analizirani so bili pod-modeli populacije, turističnega trga, kmetijstva, okolja ter BDP. Programsko orodje Powersim je bilo uporabljeno pri simulaciji modela. Analiziranih ter opisanih je več simulacijskih scenarijev z odzivi. Trenutno je model v fazi validacije. Začetni rezultati obetajo pozitivne validacijski izid. Ključne besede: sistemska dinamika, simulacija, model, sistem za podporo odločanju, trajnostni razvoj, turize

Risk assessment of non-native fishes in the Balkans Region using FISK, the invasiveness screening tool for non-native freshwater fishes

A high level of freshwater fish endemism in the Balkans Region emphasizes the need for non-native species risk assessments to inform management and control measures, with pre-screening tools, such as the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) providing a useful first step. Applied to 43 non-native and translocated freshwater fishes in four Balkan countries, FISK reliably discriminated between invasive and non-invasive species, with a calibration threshold value of 9.5 distinguishing between species of medium and high risk sensu lato of becoming invasive. Twelve of the 43 species were assessed by scientists from two or more Balkan countries, and the remaining 31 species by a single assessor. Using the 9.5 threshold, three species were classed as low risk, 10 as medium risk, and 30 as high risk, with the latter category comprised of 26 moderately high risk, three high risk, and one very high risk species. Confidence levels in the assessments were relatively constant for all species, indicating concordance amongst assessors

Different aspect of sustainable use of fish resources in Serbia for the period 2006-2017

Ovaj rad ima za cilj da ustanovi koja je uloga zakona u dobrom upravljanju ribolovnim resursima. Zaštita i održivo korišćenje ribljeg fonda u Srbiji regulisano je istoimenim zakonom, a odvija se na 17 ribarskih područja i 29 ribarskih područja u zaštićenim prirodnim dobrima. Na 17 osnovnih ribarskih područja upravljaju „javna preduzeća“ ili privatne firme u statusu „doo“. Kod većih područja, posebno u Vojvodini, postoji više upravljača za jedno ribarsko područje. U zaštićenim prirodnim dobrima upravljači su ujedno i korisnici ribljeg fonda. U periodu od 2006. do 2017. godine Zakon o zaštiti i održivom korišćenju ribljeg fonda menjan je u dva navrata: 2009. i 2014. godine. Podzakonska akta su takođe podložna vrlo čestim promenama. U radu se prate efekti promene zakonske regulative na broj rekre ativnih i profesionalnih ribolovaca, broj ribočuvara i trendove u ulovima. Osnovni trendovi su da broj rekreativnih ribolovaca u navedenom periodu opada, broj profesionalnih riba ra stagnira, dok broj ribočuvara raste. Ulov ima tendenciju opadanja za sve vrste koje se statististički prate (šaran, som, smuđ i deverika od autohtonih vrsta, i babuška i tolstolobik od alohtonih). Odnos ulova u rekreativnom i komercijalnom ribolovu pokazuje značajne promene u poslednjih desetak godina: osim za tolstolobika, kod koga dominira komer cijalni ulov, kod ostalih vrsta je došlo do zamene u smislu da rekreativni ulov preuzima dominaciju u poslednjih nekoliko godin

Parametrization of bass diffusion model on COVID-19 first wave data

The paper addresses the development of the system for the parameterization of the Bass Diffusion Model on Covid-19 Data. Continuous model developed by the principle of system dynamics is presented. The parameters of the model are tuned to fit the data with genetic algorithm in Powersim simulation tool. The validation is performed by standard simulation validation techniques. The input data used in the experiments were gathered by publically available databases. In particular, the data collected in Austria, France, Italy, South Korea, Slovenia and Swiss were considered in this study. The results have shown that the simple model with is capable of predicting the growth with S-shaped curve with high accuracy. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Metodološki pristop k izboljšavam procesov strateškega odločanja v družbenih sistemih ob nepopolnih informacijah

The design of strategies for social systems requires the use of qualitative information owing to the fact that quantitative information can be insufficient to solve the problems involved. The information that the specialists and the decision makers obtain is often incomplete and unreliable. Nevertheless, leaders have to make strategic decisions despite these deficiencies which should be based on the formal models (Kljajić et al. 2000Škraba et al, 2003Škraba et al 2007). This paper describes a methodology elaborated to design the strategy of the city of Santa Cruz (on the Canary Islands). It has two main sections: the elaboration of a qualitative model and the use of System Dynamics. We combine them in a way that allows mixing qualitative and quantitative information to achieve a better understanding of the structure of the region, to know the tendencies of the present scenario and to estimate of the effects of alternative strategic decisions. We have obtained these results working with scarce quantitative information. This methodology may be applied to any social systems with similar characteristics.Oblikovanje strategij na področju družbenih sistemov zahteva uporabo kvalitativnih informacij, saj nabor razpoložljivih kvan­titativnih informacij v večini primerov ni zadosten za celovito rešitev aktualnih odločitvenih problemov. Informacije, ki so na voljo strokovnjakom in tistim, ki se odločajo, so največkrat nepopolne in nezanesljive. Ne glede na to, morajo vodje sprejeti strateške odločitve, navkljub omenjenim pomanjkljivostim. Prispevek obravnava metodologijo, ki je bila razvita za potrebe strateškega odločanja v mestu Santa Cruz na Kanarskih otokih. Prispevek ima dva ključna dela: opis kvalitativnega modela in uporaba sistemske dinamike. Pri tem je izvedena kombinacija metodologij, ki omogočajo ustrezno prepletanje kvalitativnih in kvantitativnih informacij z namenom doseči boljše razumevanje strukture obravnavane regije, tendence trenutnih scenarijev in izvedbo ocene učinkov alternativnih strateških odločitev. Predstavljeni rezultati so pridobljeni na omejenem naboru kvanti­tativnih informacij. Opisano metodologijo je moč uporabiti na kateremkoli družbenem sistemu s podobnimi karakteristikami

Metodološki pristop k izboljšavam procesov strateškega odločanja v družbenih sistemih ob nepopolnih informacijah

The design of strategies for social systems requires the use of qualitative information owing to the fact that quantitative infor­mation can be insufficient to solve the problems involved. The information that the specialists and the decision makers obtain is often incomplete and unreliable. Nevertheless, leaders have to make strategic decisions despite these deficiencies which should be based on the formal models (Kljajić et al. 2000; Škraba et al, 2003; Škraba et al 2007). This paper describes a methodology elaborated to design the strategy of the city of Santa Cruz (on the Canary Islands). It has two main sections: the elaboration of a qualitative model and the use of System Dynamics. We combine them in a way that allows mixing qualitative and quantitative information to achieve a better understanding of the structure of the region, to know the tendencies of the present scenario and to estimate of the effects of alternative strategic decisions. We have obtained these results working with scarce quantitative information. This methodology may be applied to any social systems with similar characteristics.Oblikovanje strategij na področju družbenih sistemov zahteva uporabo kvalitativnih informacij, saj nabor razpoložljivih kvan­titativnih informacij v večini primerov ni zadosten za celovito rešitev aktualnih odločitvenih problemov. Informacije, ki so na voljo strokovnjakom in tistim, ki se odločajo, so največkrat nepopolne in nezanesljive. Ne glede na to, morajo vodje sprejeti strateške odločitve, navkljub omenjenim pomanjkljivostim. Prispevek obravnava metodologijo, ki je bila razvita za potrebe strateškega odločanja v mestu Santa Cruz na Kanarskih otokih. Prispevek ima dva ključna dela: opis kvalitativnega modela in uporaba sistemske dinamike. Pri tem je izvedena kombinacija metodologij, ki omogočajo ustrezno prepletanje kvalitativnih in kvantitativnih informacij z namenom doseči boljše razumevanje strukture obravnavane regije, tendence trenutnih scenarijev in izvedbo ocene učinkov alternativnih strateških odločitev. Predstavljeni rezultati so pridobljeni na omejenem naboru kvanti­tativnih informacij. Opisano metodologijo je moč uporabiti na kateremkoli družbenem sistemu s podobnimi karakteristikami

Model sistemske dinamike Kanarskih otokov za strateške odločitve v javnem sektorju

The present paper centers on the problems of decision making and decision support related to strategic public decisions. A methodological approach was developed to support decision-making where decision-makers are confronted with unexpected events. The methodology considers the fact that strategic decisions involve a large breadth of variables, qualitative and quantitative; and that they imply distributed and remote interaction between different actors.The approach is based on the building of qualitative models and the application of system dynamics for the development of a simulation model.Variables were identified which affect the sustainable improvement of the quality of life in the Canary Islands. The relationships between the variables are expressed as an influence square Matrix M with dimension n = 53. Each element of M may take values between 0 and 3. If aij =0, changes in variable Vi do not affect Vj. If aij takes a value between 1 and 3, it means that the changes in variable “i” produce changes in “j” proportional to prescribed gain.We used two methods to address the problem: the analysis of the driving- dependent forces and systems dynamics. Key words: qualitative modeling, system dynamics, strategic public decisionsPrispevek obravnava probleme na področju podpore odločanja ter samih odločitvenih procesov na nivoju odločanja v javnem sektorju. Opisan je razvoj metodološkega pristopa k podpori odločanju v primerih, ko so odločevalci soočeni z nepričakovanimi dogodki. Metodologija obravnava dejstvo, da je strateško odločanje povezano z velkim naborom spremenljivk, kvantitativnih in kvalitativnih ter, da le-te implicirajo interakcije med različnimi subjekti. Metodologija je zasnovana na izgradnji kvantitativnih modelov ter aplikaciji sistemske dinamike pri razvoju simulacijskega modela. Identificirane so bile spremenljivke, ki vplivajo na trajnostni razvoj ter izboljšavo kvalitete življenja na Kanarskih otokih. Relacije med spremenljivkami so podane s kvadratno matriko vplivov M z dimenzijo n=53. Možne vrednosti elementov M so med 0 in 3. Če je aij =0, sprememba vrednosti spremenljivke Vi ne vpliva na Vj. Če je vrednost aij med 1 in 3, sprememba spremenljivke »i« povzroči spremembo spremenljivke »j« proporcionalno s predpisano ojačitvijo. Prestavljena metoda je bila uporabljena pri reševanju problema analize vzročno posledičnih sil in razvoju modela sistemske dinamike. Ključne besede: kvalitativno modeliranje, sistemska dinamika, strateško odločanje v javnem sektorj

PRVI NALAZ MLADICE Hucho hucho (Linnaeus, 1758) U RIJECI GRZI: ČOVJEKOV UTJECAJ NA ŠIRENJE OVE VRSTE IZVAN NJEZINOG PRIRODNOG HABITATA U SRBIJI

Huchen or Danube salmon Hucho hucho (Linnaeus 1758) is one of the largest salmonid species in the world and the largest species native to the Danube basin in Europe. In Serbia, this species inhabits the Drina river system, as well as the upper reaches of the River Ibar. It has already been introduced into the rivers Moravica and Đetinja, which are part of the Zapadna Morava catchment area. Most recently, huchen was stocked from its native habitat into the rivers Jerma and Nišava in the Južna Morava river system, and into the River Mlava which flows into the Danube. Huchen is listed as an endangered (EN) species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species and is protected in Serbia, and a Conservation Action Plan has already been adopted. In this report, we present the first record of this species in the River Grza, which is a part of the Velika Morava river system, outside its native range. The ichthyofauna of this recipient river consists of brown trout Salmo trutta L. and Eurasian minnow Phoxinus phoxinus L. In a small river of a fragile ecosystem such as this, the introduction of huchen as an apex predator can seriously harm the species of the native fish community, which warns of the illegal stocking measures currently in process.Mladica ili dunavski losos, Hucho hucho (Linnaeus, 1758), jedna je od najvećih salmonidnih vrsta na svijetu i najveća vrsta koja potječe iz dunavskog sliva u Europi. U Srbiji ova vrsta nastanjuje sustav rijeke Drine, kao i gornji tok rijeke Ibar. Već je unesena u rijeke Moravicu i Đetinju, koje su dio slivnog područja Zapadne Morave. U posljednje vrijeme, mladice su poribljene iz svog izvornog područja rasprostranjenja u rijeke Jermu i Nišavu u sustavu rijeke Južne Morave, te u rijeku Mlavu koja se ulijeva u rijeku Dunav. Mladica je navedena kao ugrožena vrsta (EN) na Crvenom popisu ugroženih vrsta IUCN-a i zaštićena je u Srbiji, s već postavljenim Akcijskim planom zaštite. U ovom izvješću predstavljamo prvi nalaz ove vrste u rijeci Grzi, koja je dio sustava rijeke Velike Morave, izvan njezinog autohtonog areala. Ihtiofauna ovog recipijentskog potoka sastoji se od potočne pastrve Salmo trutta L. i pijora Phoxinus phoxinus L. U ovako malom potoku osjetljivog ekosustava, uvođenje mladice kao vrhunskog predatora može ozbiljno naštetiti vrstama izvorne riblje zajednice, što upozorava na trenutno aktualna ilegalna poribljavanja