Анализа ситуације и предвиђања у вези са епидемијом САРС-КоВ-2 вируса у Републици Српској на дан 27. мај 2020.

На основу података доступних на званичној страници Владе РС поводом епидемије изазване САРС-КоВ-2 вирусом, извршена су предвиђања која се тичу завршетка епидемије, процјене броја заражених, кретања броја активних случајева током епидемије, те понашања смртности. За предвиђања су коришћени оруђе FBprophet и пакети scipy, pandas, и matplotlib. Предвиђања динамике промјена (Time Series Forecasting) су урађена помоћу FBprophet-a, a oбрада података и уклапање епидемијске криве помоћу scipy и pandas-a. Визуелизација аналитике је урађена помоћу matplotlib-a. Добијени резултати су детаљно продискутовани

A novel way to estimate the epidemic risk index for assessing the government measures during the epidemic of respiratory transmitted person-to-person disease

The epidemic risk index is formulated in a novel way, extending the INFORM risk formula. The development is based on the well known gravity model. Modularity of the proposed epidemic risk index allows \textit{ad hoc} modifications according to the current knowledge of biological pathogen which is a cause of epidemic and available data about geographical areas of interest. Concerning the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic in 2020, the model is presented so that it can be usable, hopefully, in the current situation, although, in general, it should be applicable to any respiratory transmitted person-to-person disease

Behavioral and Metabolic Risk Factors for Noncommunicable Diseases among Population in the Republic of Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the major cause of death worldwide, and they are attributable to genetic and physiological determinants, behavioral risk factors and environmental impacts. The aim of this study is to assess behavioral risk factors for metabolic disease using demographic and social–economic aspects of the population characterized by risk factors, and to investigate relations among lifestyle risk factors (alcohol consumption, tobacco use, physical inactivity, intake of vitamins, fruits and vegetables) that are responsible for the majority of NCD deaths in the Republic of Srpska’s (RS’s) population. This is a cross-sectional study based on the analysis of a survey conducted among 2311 adult (≥18 years) persons (54.0% women, and 46.0% men). The statistical analysis was carried out by using Cramer’s V values, clustering, logistic regression (binomial, multinomial and ordinal), a chi-square test and odds ratios. In the case of logistic regression, we provide the prediction accuracy in percentages. A significant statistical correlation between demographic characteristics (gender and age) and risk factors was observed. The highest difference according to gender was observed in alcohol consumption (odds ratio (OR) = 2.705, confidence interval (95% CI) = 2.206–3.317), particularly in frequent consumption (OR = 3.164, 95% CI = 2.664–3.758). The highest prevalence of high blood pressure was registered in the elderly (66.5%); the same holds for hypertension (44.3%). Additionally, physical inactivity was one of the most common risk factors (33.4% physically inactive respondents). A significant presence of risk factors was confirmed among the RS population, with higher involvement of metabolic risk factors among the older population, while the prevalence of behavioral factors was related to younger age groups, particularly in the case of alcohol consumption and smoking. A low level of preventive awareness was observed among the younger population. Therefore, prevention is one of the most important instruments related to decreasing NCD risk factors in the RS population