We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers

We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size ofthe fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multipliers estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation. The cumulative effects of such arguably innocuous methodological choices can lead to a change in the spending multipliers of as much as 0.4 points

Comparing the fit of New Keynesian DSGE models

The paper is focused on an analysis of model fit of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models following New Open Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM). Unlike most of the literature on the topic, this paper does not use Bayesian posterior odds ratio to analyze model fit to data; it uses alternative tools instead. In order to compare the results of the alternative tools to the standard posterior odds ratio, this paper uses the findings of Slanicay and Vašíček (2009), who compared model fit to data of several models with the tool Bayesian posterior odds ratio. The goal of the paper is to verify the results of Slanicay and Vašíček’s (2009) model variants with different criteria than posterior odds and to compare the results with findings of their paper. The tools for the analysis are criteria based on root mean squared error (RMSE) and tools from the Global Sensitivity Analysis toolbox. Conclusions of this paper are the following: Habit persistence in consumption is found to be important and price indexation unimportant as in Slanicay and Vašíček (2009). Furthermore, model variants with foreign economy modeled as AR1 processes always perform better than the ones with structurally modeled foreign economy. This finding is in contradiction to the results of Slanicay and Vašíček (2009)

Nejistota vybraných makroekonomických dat zemí Visegrádu

Příspěvek analyzuje nejistotu vybraných makroekonomických dat, jmenovitě hrubého domácího produktu, růstu hrubého domácího produktu a mezery výstupu. Objektem pozorování jsou země tzv. Visegrádské čtyřky, tj. Česko, Slovensko, Maďarsko a Polsko. V případech, kdy byla dostupná data, byly vypracovány analýzy a jejich výsledky ukázaly, že nejistota makroekonomických dat je často závažná. Uživatel dat by tedy neměl chápat data jako konečné hodnoty a měl vždy brát nejistotu dat v potaz a pro své potřeby se např. pokusit vhodně ji kvantifikovat nebo data používat až poté, co proběhne dostatečný počet revizí a nejistota dat se tak sníží.Příspěvek analyzuje nejistotu vybraných makroekonomických dat, jmenovitě hrubého domácího produktu, růstu hrubého domácího produktu a mezery výstupu. Objektem pozorování jsou země tzv. Visegrádské čtyřky, tj. Česko, Slovensko, Maďarsko a Polsko. V případech, kdy byla dostupná data, byly vypracovány analýzy a jejich výsledky ukázaly, že nejistota makroekonomických dat je často závažná. Uživatel dat by tedy neměl chápat data jako konečné hodnoty a měl vždy brát nejistotu dat v potaz a pro své potřeby se např. pokusit vhodně ji kvantifikovat nebo data používat až poté, co proběhne dostatečný počet revizí a nejistota dat se tak sníží.The paper analyses uncertainty of selected macroeconomic data, namely gross domestic product, growth of gross domestic product, and output gap. Observation objects are countries of the so-called Visegrad four, i. e. Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Analyses were made in cases of available data. The results showed that the uncertainty of macroeconomic data is often significant. Data user therefore shouldn't understand data as final values and should always take uncertainty into account. One should for example try to suitably quantify the uncertainty for required purposes or use the data after sufficient number of revisions occurred

Comparing the fit of New Keynesian DSGE models

The paper is focused on an analysis of model fit of DSGE models following NOEM. Unlike most of the literature on the topic,this paper does not use posterior odds to analyze model fit to data;it uses alternative tools instead. In order to compare the results of the alternative tools to the standard posterior odds ratio, this paper uses the findings of Slanicay and Vašíček (2009)[SV2009],who compared model fit to data of several models with posterior odds. The goal of the paper is to verify the results of SV2009 with different criteria than posterior odds. The tools for the analysis are criteria based on RMSE and tools from the Global Sensitivity Analysis toolbox. Conclusions of this paper are the following: Habit persistence in consumption is found to be important and price indexation unimportant as in SV2009. Furthermore,model variants with exogenous foreign economy always perform better than the ones with structurally modeled foreign economy. This finding is in contradiction to the results of SV2009

API for Online Web Applications

Tato bakalářská práce se zaměřuje na popis a návrh aplikačních rozhraní. V práci jsou popsány architektury aktuální doby, ale jsou okrajově popsány i architektury historické. Součástí je rovněž proces návrhu a implementace aplikace, která by některé rozhraní využívala.This bachelor thesis is focused on describing and designing application interfaces . The thesis describes architectures of current age and also marginally describes legacy architectures . The part of the work is also process of design and implementation of application , which would utilize some interface.

Control of Traction Rail Vehicle with Freewheels

This paper is focused on the low-floor tramswith free-wheels driven by PMSM motors, especially ontheir traction control system. The first part describesmodern low-floor trams, particularly the type 15T producedby Škoda Transportation. The second part of the paperpresents the simulations of characteristics operating suchtram in the rail and the results of these simulations. Thelast part of the paper describes the mechanical constructionand electrical equipment of a light experimental rail car,that will be used as an experimental base for a improvementof the control system for the tram 15T

Nejistota českých makroekonomických dat: úvodní analýza: mezera výstupu

Článek analyzuje hodnoty mezery výstupu zveřejňované Českou národní bankou. Ukazuje, že ačkoli je použití hodnot mezery výstupu pro Českou národní banku velmi důležité (ne-li klíčové), dochází často k podstatným revizím. Revize jsou mnohdy natolik zásadní, že je nejisté, zda je vůbec ekonomika nad svým potenciálem nebo pod ním. Zjištěná nejistota dat je velmi výrazná a kvalita odhadů hodnot mezery výstupu nízká.The article analyses output gap values that are published by the Czech national bank. It shows that although the use of output gap values is for the Czech national bank very important (if not key), substantial revisions occur frequently. The revisions are often so radical, that it is not sure, if the economy is above or below its potential. Ascertained data uncertainty is very strong and the quality of output gap estimates is low