Monthly to annual variability of the Norwegian Atlantic slope current: connection between the northern North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea

This study investigated relations between direct current measurements in the Norwegian Atlantic slope current (NwASC), the sea surface height variability from the TOPEX altimeter, and reanalysed mean sea level pressure fields. The analyses show significant coherence between the leading mslp and ssh EOF modes of variability, and again these modes are significantly coherent with variability in the NwASC for periods of a few months to 6 months. There is also some indication that similar relation is also valid for the annual scale. The underlying physical process, inferred from the temporal evolution and spatial structure, is that variability in the westerly winds modulates the sea level slope from the northern North Atlantic into the Norwegian Sea, and thus provide a barotropic force to the Norwegian Sea. Furthermore, increased westerlies occur in phase with a steepening of the generally downward sea level slope, and this also coincides with increased NwASC. A generalized Sverdrup balance allows the observed variability in the sea level slope along the NwASC to be related to the local variability in the wind stress curl

Individual-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Vaccine Strategies

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease with influenza-like symptoms originating from Wuhan, China, towards the end of 2019. There has been developed multiple vaccines to contain the virus and to protect the most vulnerable people in society. In this thesis we look at two different vaccination strategies to prevent most deaths and years of life lost. We conclude that the safest and most consistent strategy is to prioritze old people over the people with the most contacts

Monitoring the Norwegian Atlantic slope current using a single moored current meter

Monitoring the Atlantic inflow (AI) of warm and saline water into the Nordic Seas (Norwegian, Greenland and Iceland Seas) is of great importance becauce of its impact on climate and ecology in Northern Europe and Arctic. In this study, an observation system for establishment of simple, robust and cost effective monitoring of the AI is validated in the Svinøy section, cutting through the AI just to the north of the Faroe-Shetland Channel. We concentrate on the eastern branch of the AI, the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC), an about 40km wide flow along the steep Norwegian slope. The database is an array of 15 current meters on 4 moorings covering the NwASC over a 2-year period 1998–2000. We test the hypothesis that long-term monitoring of the NwASC can be performed by using one single current meter suitable placed in the flow. The volume flux can then be estimated by construction of simple regression models using the single current meter record as the independent variable. For validation of statistical properties as stability, confidence and stationarity, the time series is split into two 1-year segments: a model period and a test period. Gridded correlation fields between currents and volume transport show correlation maxima in the core of the NwASC, ranging from 0.84 on a daily timescale to 0.97 on a monthly timescale. A more comprehensive correlation/ coherence analysis for each current meter record against volume transport on 7-day timescales, enable us to choose the optimal current meter for a linear regression model with (correlation, slope) coefficients of (0.87, 0.13) for the model period and (0.80, 0.13) for the test period. The similarity of the statistical properties for the model and test periods substantiates the stationarity, stability and robustness of the model. A linear regression model underestimates large fluxes and is thus extended to a second degree polynomia. This improves the curve fitting for strong currents with a minor increase in overall correlation, but is more sensistive and less stable. Overall, we find a linear regression model to be more robust and applicable for monitoring the NwASC. The applicability of a linear regression model as an estimator for volume flux of the NwASC is demonstrated using a 2-year time series, and validated against calculated transport. The calculated transport agrees with the statistical analysis and reveals a noisy fit on daily timescale, while the curves coincide well on both 7- and 30-day timescales with correlation coefficients of 0.84 and 0.86, respectively. On all timescales, the calculated and model transport give an overall mean flow of 4.4 Sv and show fluctuations on timescales of days to months, with the seasonal cycle being the most prominent

Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Norwegian Sea

Ocean heat content in the Norwegian Sea exhibits pronounced variability on interannual to decadal time scales. These ocean heat anomalies are known to influence Arctic sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and continental climate. It nevertheless remains unknown to what extent such heat anomalies are produced locally within the Norwegian Sea, and to what extent the region is more of a passive receiver of anomalies formed elsewhere. A main practical challenge has been the lack of closed heat budget diagnostics. In order to address this issue, a regional heat budget is calculated for the Norwegian Sea using the ECCOv4 ocean state estimate—a dynamically and kinematically consistent model framework fitted to ocean observations for the period 1992–2015. The depth‐integrated Norwegian Sea heat budget shows that both ocean advection and air‐sea heat fluxes play an active role in the formation of interannual heat content anomalies. A spatial analysis of the individual heat budget terms shows that ocean advection is the primary contributor to heat content variability in the Atlantic domain of the Norwegian Sea. Anomalous heat advection furthermore depends on the strength of the Atlantic water inflow, which is related to large‐scale circulation changes in the subpolar North Atlantic. This result suggests a potential for predicting Norwegian Sea heat content based on upstream conditions. However, local surface forcing (air‐sea heat fluxes and Ekman forcing) within the Norwegian Sea substantially modifies the phase and amplitude of ocean heat anomalies along their poleward pathway, and, hence, acts to limit predictability.publishedVersio

Recent warming and freshening of the Norwegian Sea observed by Argo data

Climate variability in the Norwegian Sea, comprising the Norwegian and Lofoten Basins, was investigated based upon monthly estimates of ocean heat and freshwater contents using data from Argo floats during 2002–18. Both local air–sea exchange and advective processes were examined and quantified for monthly to interannual time scales. In the recent years, 2011–18, the Norwegian Sea experienced a decoupling of the temperature and salinity, with a simultaneous warming and freshening trend. This was mainly explained by two different processes; reduced ocean heat loss to the atmosphere and advection of fresher Atlantic water into the Norwegian Sea. The local air–sea heat fluxes are important in modifying the ocean heat content, although this relationship varied with time scale and basins. On time scales exceeding 4 months in the Lofoten Basin and 6 months in the Norwegian Basin, the air–sea heat flux explained half or even more of the local ocean heat content change. There were both a short-term and long-term response of the wind forcing on the ocean heat content. The monthly to seasonal response of increased southerly wind cooled and freshened the Norwegian Basin, due to eastward surface Ekman transport, and increased the influence of Arctic Water. However, after about a 1-yr delay the ocean warmed and became saltier due to an increased advection of Atlantic Water into the region. Increased westerly winds decreased the ocean heat content in both cases due to increased transport of Arctic Water into the Norwegian Sea.publishedVersio

Mechanisms underlying recent Arctic atlantification

Recent warming and reduced sea ice concentrations in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean are the main signatures of ongoing Arctic “Atlantification.” The mechanisms driving the warming trends are nevertheless still debated, particularly regarding the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes. Here, heat budgets along main Atlantic water pathways through the Barents Sea and Fram Strait are constructed to investigate the mechanisms of Atlantification during 1993–2014. The largest warming trends occur south of the winter ice edge, with ocean advection as the main driver. Warming in the marginal ice zone is mainly due to low surface heat loss from the 1990s to the mid‐2000s. In the ice‐covered northwestern Barents Sea, ocean advection and air‐sea heat fluxes act in concert to drive a gradual warming of the upper ocean. Despite a weakened stratification, no evidence is found of vertical oceanic temperature fluxes driving this upper‐ocean warming.publishedVersio

Frontal dynamics of a buoyancy‐driven coastal current : quantifying buoyancy, wind, and isopycnal tilting influence on the Nova Scotia Current

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 123 (2018): 4988-5003, doi:10.1029/2017JC013338.The focus of this study is on the relative roles of winds and buoyancy in driving the Nova Scotia Current (NSC) utilizing detailed hydrographic glider transects along the Halifax Line. We define a Hydrographic Wind Index (HWI) using a simplistic two‐layer model to represent the NSC and its frontal system. The HWI is based on local characteristics of the density front extracted from the glider data (e.g., frontal slope). The impact of wind‐driven isopycnal tilting on the frontal slope is estimated and corrected for to accurately scale the buoyancy‐driven component of the NSC. Observations from independent current profilers deployed across the NSC confirm that the HWI captures the low‐frequency variability of the NSC. The monthly wind‐driven flow is estimated to represent between 1.0% (±0.1%) and 48% (±1%) of the total alongshore currents, with a yearly mean of about 36% (±1%). We demonstrate that using local conditions is more appropriate to the study of buoyancy‐driven currents ranging over distances on the order of urn:x-wiley:jgrc:media:jgrc22972:jgrc22972-math-0001(100 km), compared to the traditional approach based on upstream conditions. Contrary to the traditional approach, the HWI is not affected by the advective time lag associated with the downshelf propagation of the buoyant water coming from the upstream source. However, the HWI approach requires high‐resolution data sets, as errors on the estimates of the buoyancy‐ and wind‐driven flows become large as the sampling resolution decreases. Despite being data intensive, we argue that the HWI is also applicable to multisource currents, where upstream conditions are difficult to define.Ocean Tracking Network (OTN) Grant Number: 375118-08; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC); Canadian Foundation for Innovation Grant Number: 13011; Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Grant Number: 871-2009-0001; University in Bergen through the POME exchange program2019-01-2