Forecasting natural gas consumption in Istanbul using neural networks and multivariate time series methods

Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.The fast changes and developments in the world's economy have substantially increased energy consumption. Consequently, energy planning has become more critical and important. Forecasting is one of the main tools utilized in energy planning. Recently developed computational techniques such as genetic algorithms have led to easily produced and accurate forecasts. In this paper, a natural gas consumption forecasting methodology is developed and implemented with state-of-the-art techniques. We show that our forecasts are quite close to real consumption values. Accurate forecasting of natural gas consumption is extremely critical as the majority of purchasing agreements made are based on predictions. As a result, if the forecasts are not done correctly, either unused natural gas amounts must be paid or there will be shortages of natural gas in the planning periods

The Policy Orientation of Turkey's Current Climate Change Strategy

This article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Turkey's approach to climate change on its path to an ecological civilisation. How does Turkey perceive climate change? What proposals does Turkey offer to tackle climate change? How have Turkey's perception and policy proposals on this matter taken their current shape? This article uses qualitative content analysis and descriptive statistics to address these questions. A fuller understanding of Turkey's climate change strategy can be gained through an integrative analysis of its recent Strategic Plan and Five-Year Plans in tandem with its key official documents related to climate change strategy and action plans. Our analysis suggests that Turkey's approach to climate change centres on an ambitious mission to place economic and social development within a sustainability framework. This mission springs from Turkey's growing percipience that the key to success in the struggle against climate change is in pursuing these efforts in coordination with the Sustainable Development Goals. The selected documents reflect a growing awareness that these efforts can be enhanced through closer cooperation between the public sector, private sectors, and civil society. Moreover, Turkey exhibits a strong understanding of the need for strengthening ties between the environment and future generations on the road to "green development". The addressed documents acknowledge the current obstacles on this road, particularly those relating to scant institutional, financial, and technical capabilities. Finally, the documents' frequent emphasis on sustainable energy, energy efficiency, and clean energy technologies points to the relevance of taking into consideration Turkey's energy strategy and action plans. In this area, Turkey's efforts at improving its institutional, financial, and technical capabilities seem to have borne their first fruits, though there is still a very long way to go to attain the capabilities required for fully implementing the intended strategies and action plans. A promising development is that enhanced public support for clean energy technologies and production has led Turkey to become a leading actor in clean energy

Sürdürülebilir Üniversitelerin Yönetişim-Strateji Çalışmaları ve İletişimi İçin Karşılaştırma Bazlı Bir Yaklaşım Önerisi

Sürdürülebilirlik kavramının gittikçe önem kazandığı günümüzde, sürdürülebilirlik çalışmaları üniversitelerde de önem kazanmaya başlamış ve birçok üniversite, sürdürülebilir bir üniversite olma taahhüdünde bulunmak için süreçlerini yeniden organize etmeye başlamıştır. Bu alanda yol gösterici olmak için, üniversiteler için de bu konuda sürdürülebilirlik sıralama sistemleri geliştirilmeye başlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada sürdürülebilir bir üniversitenin yönetişim, strateji ve iletişim çerçevesinde önceliklendirmesi gereken temel göstergelerinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak, THE Impact, UI GreenMetric ve GRI olmak üzere yaygın olarak kullanılan üç küresel sürdürülebilirlik sıralama ve raporlama endeksinin yönetişim ve strateji yönlerine dayalı karşılaştırmalı analiz yapılmıştır. Bu çerçevede; sürdürülebilir bir üniversitenin strateji ve yönetişim çalışmalarının hangi kapsamlarda yapılandırılması gerektiğinin ortaya çıkarılması ve bu kapsamda sürdürülebilirlik iletişimi için gerekli olan araçların incelenmesi yapılmıştır. Yapılan karşılaştırmalı analiz, yönetişim ve strateji alanı altındaki dört ana başlığı kapsamaktadır. Bu başlıklar; ‘Temel Strateji ve Politikalar/Yönetim Yapısı’, ‘Etik’, ‘Sosyal Alanlar’ (Cinsiyet Eşitliği, Eşitlik ve Çeşitlilik, İnsan Hakları) ve son olarak ‘Çevresel Etki Politikaları’ndan oluşmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca, ilgili göstergelerin karşılaştırılması ve gelecekteki eylemler ile ilgili daha fazla kavrayışın tartışılması sunulmaktadır

An evaluation of energy efficiency measures in a Turkish campus building for thermal comfort and economic risk

As new and retrofitted Turkish buildings adopt stateof-the-art energy efficiency measures, hidden risks associated with compromised thermal comfort and disappointing returns on investment could go unnoticed unless a building is subjected to an uncertainty and risk analysis. Standard deterministic predictions are not sufficient, as they do not capture the effects of uncertainty and variability with regard to local microclimate conditions, physical parameters, and discrepancies in the model formulations, also known as “model form uncertainties”. In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertainty on the performance of a Turkish campus building. We examine the risk that an energy efficient design that is accepted because of the positive results of a conventional energy simulation, causes unacceptable discomfort and unsatisfactory returns on investment. The results of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis shows that these risks exist in certain areas and not in others. The predicted annual output of PV panels is relatively stable with only minor variability, which justifies the investment in Istanbul. Same with shading devices, which lead to a satisfactory internal rate of return under uncertainty. However, with regard to comfort we find that risks could be substantial. We find that relying completely on occupants opening and closing windows for fresh air with fan coil units maintaining the indoor temperature may lead to an insufficient supply of outdoor air for occupants and a substantial risk of overheating. Overall, the results of the analysis demonstrate that understanding risks is in some cases crucial to make an informed design decision regarding various energy saving design strategies.NSF ; Georgia Institute of Technology ; European Commission ; CEE

Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul

Commensurate with unprecedented increases in energy demand, awell-constructed forecastingmodel is vital to managing energy policies effectively by providing energy diversity and energy requirements that adapt to the dynamic structure of the country. In this study, we employ three alternative popular machine learning tools for rigorous projection of natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul, Turkey's largest natural gas-consuming mega-city. These tools include multiple linear regression (MLR), an artificial neural network approach (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR). The results indicate that the SVR is much superior to ANN technique, providing more reliable and accurate results in terms of lower prediction errors for time series forecasting of natural gas consumption. This study could well serve a useful benchmarking study for many emerging countries due to the data structure, consumption frequency, and consumption behavior of consumers in various time-periods.Q1WOS:0004746811000682-s2.0-8506311490

Global Tourism, Climate Change and Energy Sustainability: Assessing Carbon Reduction Mitigating Measures from the Aviation Industry

As many business activities especially those associated with the energy be major sources of greenhouse gasintensive industriescontinue to emissions, and hence significantly contributing to global warming, there is a perceived need to identify ways to make business activities eventually carbon neutral. This paper explores the implications of a changing climate for the global tourism business global aviation industry that operates in a selfand its intertwining regulatory environment. Adopting a bibliometric analysis of literature in the domain of global tourism and climate change (772 articles), the paper reveals the underlying sustainability issues that entail unsustainable energy consumption . The aviation industry as a significant source of carbon emission within the sector is then examined by analyzing the top 20 largest commercial airlines in the world with respect to its ongoing mitigating measures in meeting the Paris Agreement targets. W hile selfregulatory initiatives are taken to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) as alternative fuel production and consumption for drastically reducing carbon emission, voluntary alignment and commitment to longterm targets remain inconsistent. A con certed strategic approach to building up complementary sustainable infrastructures among the global network of airports based in various international tourist destination cities to enable necessary to achieve a a measurable reduction in carbon emission is transformational adaptation of a business sector that is of essence to the recovery of the global economy while attempting to tackle climate change in a post COVID19 era