Türkiye'de işsizlik yardımlarının bireylerin sağlık ve yaşam standartları üzerine etkisi: Bir yapısal eşitlik modellemesi

Geleceğe ait belirsizliklerin açıklanmasında, istatistik bilimi her geçen gün daha da geliĢmekte ve araĢtırmacılar yeni yöntemler geliĢtirmektedir. GeliĢtirilen bu teknikler arasında günden güne önem kazananlardan biri de Yapısal EĢitlik Modellemesi (YEM)‟dir. YEM son dönemlerde sosyal bilimlerde en önemli veri analiz tekniklerinden biri olmuĢtur. YEM, sosyal bilimlerde teorilerin formüle edilmesi ve değiĢkenler arasındaki karmaĢık iliĢki yapılarının bir model yardımıyla açıklanmasında yaygın bir biçimde kullanılmaktadır. Bu tez çalıĢması Türkiye‟de verilmekte olan iĢsizlik ödeneklerinin (yardımlarının) bireylerin sağlık göstergeleri, yaĢam standartları gibi sosyal ve beĢeri değiĢkenlerle nedensel iliĢkilerini ampirik olarak test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizlerde Türkiye Ġstatistik Kurumu (TÜĠK) “Gelir ve YaĢam KoĢulları Panel Mikro Veri Seti (2007-2015)” kullanılmıĢtır. Yapısal EĢitlik Modellemesi, iĢsizlik ödeneklerinin bireylerin sağlık düzeyleri ve yaĢam standartlarına olan etkisini eĢanlı olarak analiz etme imkanı tanımıĢtır. Kurulan iki farklı modelde iĢsizlik yardımı öncelikle parasal değer olarak ele alınırken, ikinci modelde bireyin iĢsizlik yardımı alıp almamasına göre değiĢen bir kukla değiĢkeni olarak kullanılmıĢtır. Modeller Stata 15 programı kullanılarak analiz edilmiĢtir. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye‟de iĢsizlik yardımlarının bireylerin sağlık düzeylerini etkilemediğini ancak yaĢam standartlarını artırmada etkin olduğunu göstermiĢtir.ĠÇĠNDEKĠLER KABUL VE ONAY SAYFASI ........................................................................................... iii BĠLĠMSEL ETĠK VE BĠLDĠRĠM SAYFASI ..................................................................... iv ÖZET .................................................................................................................................... v ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................... vi ÖNSÖZ .................................................................................................................................. vii SĠMGELER DĠZĠNĠ ................................................................................................................ x ġEKĠLLER DĠZĠNĠ ................................................................................................................ xi TABLOLAR DĠZĠNĠ ............................................................................................................. xii KISALTMALAR LĠSTESĠ .................................................................................................. xiii GĠRĠġ .................................................................................................................................... 1 1. BÖLÜM .............................................................................................................................. 4 1. ĠġSĠZLĠK ............................................................................................................................. 4 1.1. ĠĢsizlik Türleri .............................................................................................................. 9 1.1.1. Geçici/ Arızi (Friksiyonel) ĠĢsizlik .................................................................... 9 1.1.2. Yapısal ĠĢsizlik ................................................................................................. 10 1.1.3. Konjonktürel (Çevrimsel) ĠĢsizlik ................................................................... 12 1.1.4. Mevsimlik ĠĢsizlik ........................................................................................... 13 1.1.5. Ġradi ĠĢsizlik ..................................................................................................... 15 1.1.6. Gayri Ġradi ( Gönülsüz) ĠĢsizlik ....................................................................... 15 1.1.7. Açık ĠĢsizlik ..................................................................................................... 16 1.1.8. Gizli ĠĢsizlik ..................................................................................................... 17 1.1.9. Gerçek Ücret ĠĢsizliği ...................................................................................... 18 1.1.10. Teknolojik ĠĢsizlik ......................................................................................... 19 1.1.11. Doğal ĠĢsizlik ................................................................................................. 20 2. BÖLÜM ............................................................................................................................ 22 2. ĠġSĠZLĠK YARDIMLARI (ÖDENEKLERĠ) ................................................................... 22 ix 2.1. ĠĢsizlik Sigortası ......................................................................................................... 23 2.2. Kıdem Tazminatı ....................................................................................................... 33 2.3. Ġhbar Tazminatı .......................................................................................................... 36 2.4. Diğer ĠĢsizlik Yardımları ........................................................................................... 37 2.5. Literatür: ĠĢsizlik Ödeneklerinin Bireylerin Sağlık ve YaĢam Standardı Üzerine Etkisi .......................................................................................................................... 42 3. BÖLÜM ............................................................................................................................ 47 3. YAPISAL EġĠTLĠK MODELLEMESĠ ............................................................................ 47 3.1. Path Diyagramı .......................................................................................................... 48 3.2. Yapısal EĢitlik Modellemesinin Parçaları .................................................................. 51 3.2.1 Ölçme Modeli ................................................................................................... 51 3.2.2 Yapısal Model ................................................................................................... 53 4. BÖLÜM ............................................................................................................................ 55 4. YÖNTEM VE AMPĠRĠK TAHMĠNLER ......................................................................... 55 4.1. Yöntem ....................................................................................................................... 55 4.2. Ampirik Sonuçlar ....................................................................................................... 58 5.TARTIġMA VE SONUÇ ................................................................................................. 66 6. KAYNAKLAR ................................................................................................................. 67 7. EKLER ............................................................................................................................. 79 ÖZGEÇMĠġ ......................................................................................................................... 8

The Effect of Unemployment Benefits on Health and Living Standards in Turkey: Evidence from Structural Equation Modelling and Regression Discontinuity Design

Unemployment can negatively affect individuals, their families and communities in various ways. When individuals are out of work may experience mental and physical health problems, material deprivation and poverty. This study aims to examine the impact of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey. We employ a structural equation modelling (SEM) to take into account the simultaneous relations among the latent variables of health and Standard of Living (SoL). Additionally, we propose a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) within the SEM framework to infer for causality. For the empirical analysis we use the panel Income and Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) over the period 2007-2015. Our findings suggest that those who receive these benefits are more likely to report higher levels of health and improve their living standards compared to the non-recipients. Our results indicate a large heterogeneity on the impact of unemployment benefits, as males, low educated individuals and those belonging in the lower levels of income are affected more in terms of their health status and living standards. The majority of earlier studies have focused on the impact of unemployment benefits on labour outcomes. The originality of this study is that we implement the FRDD within the SEM framework to explore simultaneously the impact of unemployment insurance on heath and living standards. Moreover, this framework can be applied in future research studies to infer causality and explore the impact of policies and reforms

The effect of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey: evidence from structural equation modelling and regression discontinuity design

Purpose Unemployment can negatively affect individuals, their families and communities in various ways. When individuals are out of work may experience mental and physical health problems, material deprivation and poverty. This study aims to examine the impact of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach The authors employ a structural equation modelling (SEM) to consider the simultaneous relationships among the unemployment benefits and the latent variables of health and Standard of Living (SoL). We propose a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) and a Regression Kink Design (RKD) within the SEM framework to infer causality. For the empirical analysis, the authors employ the panel Income and Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) in 2007-2015. Findings The authors' findings suggest that those who receive these benefits are more likely to report higher levels of health and improve their living standards compared to the non-recipients. Furthermore, unemployment benefits replacement rates are associated with improved levels in health and living standards. The authors' results indicate a substantial heterogeneity on the impact of unemployment benefits since males, low educated individuals and those belonging to the lower levels of income are affected more in terms of their health status and living standards. Originality/value The majority of earlier studies have focused on the impact of unemployment benefits on labor outcomes. The originality of this study is that we implement the FRDD and RKD within the SEM framework to explore, simultaneously, the impact of unemployment insurance on health and living standards. Moreover, future research studies can implement this framework to infer causality and explore the impact of related policies and reforms.Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK)Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK) [3501, 217K059]; Economic Research Forum (ERF)This research was supported and funded by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under the Career Development Program 3501 with Project No. 217K059. The financial support received from TUBITAK does not mean that the context of the paper is approved in a scientific sense by T_UB_ ITAK. This work was sponsored by the Economic Research Forum (ERF) and has benefited from both financial and intellectual support. The contents and recommendations do not necessarily reflect ERF's views