Simulated retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ since the Little Ice Age controlled by geometry

Rapid retreat of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers coincides with regional warming trends, which have broadly been used to explain these rapid changes. However, outlet glaciers within similar climate regimes experience widely contrasting retreat patterns, suggesting that the local fjord geometry could be an important additional factor. To assess the relative role of climate and fjord geometry, we use the retreat history of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum in 1850 as a baseline for the parameterization of a depth- and width-integrated ice flow model. The impact of fjord geometry is isolated by using a linearly increasing climate forcing since the LIA and testing a range of simplified geometries.We find that the total length of retreat is determined by external factors – such as hydrofracturing, submarine melt and buttressing by sea ice – whereas the retreat pattern is governed by the fjord geometry. Narrow and shallow areas provide pinning points and cause delayed but rapid retreat without additional climate warming, after decades of grounding line stability. We suggest that these geometric pinning points may be used to locate potential sites for moraine formation and to predict the long-term response of the glacier. As a consequence, to assess the impact of climate on the retreat history of a glacier, each system has to be analyzed with knowledge of its historic retreat and the local fjord geometry.</p

Non-linear retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ since the Little Ice Age controlled by geometry

Rapid acceleration and retreat of Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers during the last two decades have initiated questions on the trigger and processes governing observed changes. Destabilization of these glaciers coincides with atmosphere and ocean warming, which broadly has been used to explain the rapid changes. To assess the relative role of external forcing versus fjord geometry, we investigate the retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ in West Greenland, where margin positions exist since the Little Ice Age maximum in 1850. We use a one-dimensional ice flow model and isolate geometric effects on the retreat using a linear increase in external forcing. We find that the observed retreat of 43 km from 1850 until 2014 can only be simulated when multiple forcing parameters – such as hydrofracturing, submarine melt and frontal buttressing by sea ice – are changed simultaneously. Surface mass balance, in contrast, has a negligible effect. While changing external forcing initiates retreat, fjord geometry controls the retreat pattern. Basal and lateral topography govern shifts from temporary stabilization to rapid retreat, resulting in a highly non-linear glacier response. For example, we simulate a disintegration of a 15 km long floating tongue within one model year, which dislodges the grounding line onto the next pinning point. The retreat pattern loses complexity and becomes linear when we artificially straighten the glacier walls and bed, confirming the topographic controls. For real complex fjord systems such as Jakobshavn Isbræ, geometric pinning points predetermine grounding line stabilization and may therefore be used as a proxy for moraine build-up. Also, we find that after decades of stability and with constant external forcing, grounding lines may retreat rapidly without any trigger. This means that past changes may precondition marine-terminating glaciers to reach tipping-points, and that retreat can occur without additional climate warming. Present-day changes and future projections can therefore not be viewed in isolation of historic retreat.submittedVersio

As a Matter of Factions: The Budgetary Implications of Shifting Factional Control in Japan’s LDP

For 38 years, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) maintained single-party control over the Japanese government. This lack of partisan turnover in government has frustrated attempts to explain Japanese government policy changes using political variables. In this paper, we look for intraparty changes that may have led to changes in Japanese budgetary policy. Using a simple model of agenda-setting, we hypothesize that changes in which intraparty factions “control” the LDP affect the party’s decisions over spending priorities systematically. This runs contrary to the received wisdom in the voluminous literature on LDP factions, which asserts that factions, whatever their raison d’être, do not exhibit different policy preferences. We find that strong correlations do exist between which factions comprise the agenda-setting party “mainstream” and how the government allocates spending across pork-barrel and public goods items

Hydroxy-PCBs, PBDEs, and HBCDDs in serum from an elderly population of Swedish fishermen's wives and associations with bone density

Lack of human exposure data is frequently reported as a critical gap in risk assessments of environmental pollutants, especially regarding "new" pollutants. The objectives of this study were to assess serum levels of the persistent 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (CB-153), hydroxylated polychlorinated biphenyl metabolites (OH-PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDDs) in a group of Swedish middle-aged and elderly women expected to be relatively highly exposed, and to evaluate the impact of potential determinants (e.g., fish intake, age) for the inter-individual variation, as well as to investigate the association between these pollutants and bone density. No associations were found between bone mineral density or biochemical markers of bone metabolism and the analyzed environmental pollutants. Relatively high levels of CB-153 (median 260 ng/g fat) and Sigma(3)-OH- PCBs (median 1.7 ng/mL serum), and low concentrations of Sigma 6PBDEs (median 3.6 ng/g fat) were determined. Total level of HBCDDs in serum was quantified by gas chromatography with mass spectrometric detection (median 0.5 ng/g fat). HBCDD diastereomeric and enantiomeric patterns were determined by liquid chromatography with mass spectrometric detection. The dominating stereoisomer was (-)alpha-HBCDD, but 1-3% of gamma-HBCDD was also detected in the serum samples

Multi-boson effects and the normalization of the two-pion correlation function

The two-pion correlation function can be defined as a ratio of either the measured momentum distributions or the normalized momentum space probabilities. We show that the first alternative avoids certain ambiguities since then the normalization of the two-pion correlator contains important information on the multiplicity distribution of the event ensemble which is lost in the second alternative. We illustrate this explicitly for specific classes of event ensembles.Comment: 6 pages, three figures,submit to PR

Hip fracture, mortality risk, and cause of death over two decades

Summary: Men and women with hip fracture have higher short-term mortality. This study investigated mortality risk over two decades post-fracture; excess mortality remained high in women up to 10 years and in men up to 20 years. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and pneumonia were leading causes of death with a long-term doubling of risk. Introduction: Hip fractures are associated with increased mortality, particularly short term. In this study with a two-decade follow-up, we examined mortality and cause of death compared to the background population. Methods: We followed 1013 hip fracture patients and 2026 matched community controls for 22 years. Mortality, excess mortality, and cause of death were analyzed and stratified for age and sex. Hazard ratio (HR) was estimated by Cox regression. A competing risk model was fitted to estimate HR for common causes of death (CVD, cancer, pneumonia) in the short and long term (>1 year). Results: For both sexes and at all ages, mortality was higher in hip fracture patients across the observation period with men losing most life years (p <0.001). Mortality risk was higher for up to 15 years (women (risk ratio (RR) 1.9 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.7–2.1]); men (RR 2.8 [2.2–3.5])) and until end of follow-up ((RR 1.8 [1.6–2.0]); (RR 2.7 [2.1–3.3])). Excess mortality by time intervals, censored for the first year, was evident in women (80 years, for 5 years) and in me

Hydrodynamical assessment of 200 AGeV collisions

We are analyzing the hydrodynamics of 200 A GeV S+S collisions using a new approach which tries to quantify the uncertainties arising from the specific implementation of the hydrodynamical model. Based on a previous phenomenological analysis we use the global hydrodynamics model to show that the amount of initial flow, or initial energy density, cannot be determined from the hadronic momentum spectra. We additionally find that almost always a sizeable transverse flow deve- lops, which causes the system to freeze out, thereby limiting the flow velocity in itself. This freeze-out dominance in turn makes a distinction between a plasma and a hadron resonance gas equation of state very difficult, whereas a pure pion gas can easily be ruled out from present data. To complete the picture we also analyze particle multiplicity data, which suggest that chemical equilibrium is not reached with respect to the strange particles. However, the over- population of pions seems to be at most moderate, with a pion chemical potential far away from the Bose divergence.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figs in separate uuencoded file, for LateX, epsf.tex, dvips, TPR-94-5 and BNL-(no number yet

Correction to: The intake of flavonoids, stilbenes, and tyrosols, mainly consumed through red wine and virgin olive oil, is associated with lower carotid and femoral subclinical atherosclerosis and coronary calcium

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake. The author’s name Henry Montero-Salazar was incorrectly written as Henry Montero Salazar. © The Author(s) 2022

Smoking, smoking cessation and fracture risk in elderly women followed for 10 years

Summary This study examines the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on fracture risk in 75-year-old women followed for 10 years. Smoking increased fracture risk, especially for vertebral fractures. Smoking cessation decreased the risk for vertebral fractures but not for other fracture types. Introduction The purpose of this study was to examine effects of smoking and smoking cessation on fracture risk. Methods This prospective observational population-based study followed 1033 women during 10 years from age 75. Data regarding smoking were collected at age 75. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals for fracture were calculated using competing risks proportional hazards regression. Results Both former smokers and current smokers had an increased risk for any fracture (HR 1.30; 1.03–1.66, and HR 1.32; 1.01–1.73, respectively) and any osteoporotic fracture (hip, proximal humerus, distal radius, vertebra) (HR 1.31; 1.01–1.70 and HR 1.49; 1.11–1.98, respectively) compared to non-smokers. Former smokers had an increased risk for proximal humerus fractures (HR 2.23; 1.35–3.70), and current smokers had an increased risk for vertebral fractures (HR 2.30; 1.57–3.38) compared to non-smokers. After adjustment for weight, previous fractures, alcohol habits, bone mineral density (BMD), use of corticoids, vitamin D, bisphosphonates, and previous falls, former smokers had an increased risk for proximal humerus fracture (HR 2.07; 1.19–3.57) and current smokers had an increased risk for osteoporotic (HR 1.47; 1.05–2.05) and vertebral fractures (HR 2.50; 1.58–3.95) compared to non-smokers. Former smokers had a decreased risk for vertebral fractures, but not for other types of fractures, compared to current smokers. Conclusions Smoking increased the risk for fracture among elderly women, especially vertebral fractures. Smoking cessation decreased the risk for vertebral fractures but not for other types of fractures.NoneAccepte

The influence of wind direction on the capture of the wood warbler (Phylloscopus sibilatrix), an uncommon migratory species in the western Mediterranean

The wood warbler (Phylloscopus sibilatrix) is a migratory species in the western Mediterranean wintering in the Gulf of Guinea region, West Africa. In autumn and spring, this species, along with the populations breeding in Ireland and Britain, uses the Italian peninsula as its main axis of migration. From the data of captured birds at several ringing stations in the western Mediterranean (Balearic Islands and coastal Iberian Peninsula), we analyzed capture rates of the species during spring migration from 1993 to 2007. Based on the selection of days with a significant number of captures and those without captures, we analyzed the effect of wind direction over the western Mediterranean to determine a relationship between winds and the number of captures. From a total of 663 wood warblers captured between 1993 and 2007, a total of 31 days have been selected as significant days with a high number of captures, and 31 days have been selected as no-capture days. On days of maximum captures, winds coming from an easterly direction, i.e. Algeria and Tunisia, were dominant, indicating days with a clear eastern component. Contrary to expected results, captures were also made on days when the wind direction was predominantly from a northerly direction. Analysis of the origin of the winds in north eastern Spain (western Mediterranean) revealed that the majority of northerly winds originated from Africa and not from Europe as is usual for this region. Days or periods selected as no-capture days were characterized by winds coming from a northerly (European origin) or westerly direction