Herramienta web de ayuda a la gestión de los embalses en España

Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.La herramienta web diseñada para apoyar la gestión de los embalses en España, es fruto del equipo multidisciplinar formado en S-ClimWaRe, el servicio climático cuyo objetivo es avanzar en la gestión del agua en España. En el presente artículo se explicarán sus dos facetas, diagnóstico y pronóstico. La primera permite al usuario explorar, sobre un grid o en cualquier embalse, el riesgo y la variabilidad hidrológica ligados a la variabilidad climática. Esto se lleva a cabo por medio de un conjunto de diagnósticos obtenidos de las series temporales de observaciones hidrológicas y meteorológicas y un conjunto de «drivers» o impulsores climáticos. La otra faceta de esta herramienta se refiere al ámbito de la predicción, suministrando pronósticos estacionales que incluyen la pericia del sistema

Web-based decision support toolbox for Spanish reservoirs

Número monográfico dedicado al "18th EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018".Under the S-ClimWaRe (Seasonal Climate prediction in support of Water Reservoirs management) initiative, a climate service to support decision-making process by water managers in Spanish reservoirs has been developed. It consists in a web-based toolbox jointly designed with stakeholders. The website is organized in two main areas. The first one allows the user to explore, for any water reservoir or grid point over continental Spain, the existing hydrological variability and risk linked to climate variability. This is performed through a set of indicators obtained from time series of hydrological and meteorological observations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, identified as main climate driver in this geographical region. The second main area provides seasonal forecasts of NAO and both reservoir inflow and precipitation, complemented by information on probabilistic forecasts skill. Currently the NAO index is the only driver implemented for display, and forecasts come from a statistical forecasting system developed only for the extended winter NDJFM period. Through the MEDSCOPE (MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions) project new sources of predictability and relationships with different climate drivers will be explored. Forecast skill improvement is expected after the combination and weighting of ensemble members of the Copernicus seasonal forecasting systems. These forecasts will feed more sophisticated hydrological models. The toolbox has been flexible designed with respect to sources of seasonal forecasts and extension to additional drivers, variables and seasons. In this way, user requirements and scientific progress will be easily incorporated to new versions of this climate service.The research leading to these results has received funding from EUPORIAS and MEDSCOPE projects. EUPORIAS was funded by the European Commission through the 7th Framework Programme for Research, grant agreement 308291. MEDSCOPE is co-funded by the European Commission as part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, grant agreement 690462

Reseñas iberoamericanas

Iberoamerican ReviewsReseñas iberoamericana

Worldwide Effects of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic on Tuberculosis Services, January–April 2020

Coronavirus disease has disrupted tuberculosis services globally. Data from 33 centers in 16 countries on 5 continents showed that attendance at tuberculosis centers was lower during the first 4 months of the pandemic in 2020 than for the same period in 2019. Resources are needed to ensure tuberculosis care continuity during the pandemic

Herramienta web de ayuda a la gestión de los embalses en España [Presentación]

Presentación realizada en el VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción "Memorial Antonio Mestre", celebrado en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018

Early predictors of corticosteroid response in acute severe autoimmune hepatitis: a nationwide multicenter study

Background and aims: To assess whether corticosteroids improve prognosis in patients with AS-AIH, and to identify factors at therapy initiation and during therapy predictive of the response to corticosteroids. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study including all patients with AS-AIH admitted to 13 tertiary centres from January 2002 to January 2019. The composite primary outcome was death or liver transplantation within 90 days of admission. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods were used for data analysis. Results: Of 242 consecutive patients enrolled (mean age [SD] 49.7 [16.8] years), 203 received corticosteroids. Overall 90-day transplant-free survival was 61.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 55.4-67.7). Corticosteroids reduced the risk of a poor outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.25; 95% CI 0.2-0.4), but this treatment failed in 30.5%. An internally validated nomogram composed of older age, MELD, encephalopathy and ascites at the initiation of corticosteroids accurately predicted the response (C-index 0.82; [95% CI 0.8-0.9]). In responders, MELD significantly improved from days 3 to 14 but remained unchanged in non-responders. MELD on day 7 with a cut-off of 25 (sensitivity 62.5%[95% CI: 47.0-75.8]; specificity 95.2% [95% CI: 89.9-97.8]) was the best univariate predictor of the response. Prolonging corticosteroids did not increase the overall infection risk (adjusted HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.3-2.1). Conclusion: Older patients with high MELD, encephalopathy or ascites at steroid therapy initiation and during treatment are unlikely to show a favourable response and so prolonged therapy in these patients, especially if they are transplantation candidates, should be avoided.This study was supported in part by grants from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, number PI20/01302, awarded to Agustín Albillos and number PI 21/01310, awarded to Luis Téllez. CIBEREHD is funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III using grants cofinanced by the European Development Regional Fund “A way to achieve Europe” (EDRF). María Carlota Londoño received support from the Plan Nacional de I+D+I co-funded by ISCIII-Subdirección General de Evaluación and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER-"Una manera de Hacer Europa") (PI17/00955). Laura Patricia Llovet received the Resident Award “Clínic-La Pedrera” granted by the Hospital Clínic de Barcelona, Research, Innovation and Education Department