Age-related decline in antibiotic prescribing for uncomplicated respiratory tract infections in primary care in England following the introduction of a national financial incentive (the Quality Premium) for health commissioners to reduce use of antibiotics in the community: an interrupted time series analysis

Objectives: To assess the impact of the 2015/16 NHS England Quality Premium (which provided a financial incentive for Clinical Commissioning Groups to reduce antibiotic prescribing in primary care) on antibiotic prescribing by General Practitioners (GPs) for respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Method: Interrupted time series analysis using monthly patient-level consultation and prescribing data obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), between April 2011 and March 2017. The study population comprised patients consulting a GP who were diagnosed with an RTI. We assessed the rate of antibiotic prescribing in patients (both aggregate and stratified by age) with a recorded diagnosis of uncomplicated RTI, before and after the implementation of the Quality Premium. Results: Prescribing rates decreased over the six year study period, with evident seasonality. Notably, there was a 3% drop in the rate of antibiotic prescribing (equating to 14.65 prescriptions per 1,000 RTI consultations) (p<0.05) in April 2015, coinciding with the introduction of the Quality Premium. This reduction was sustained, such that after two years there was a 3% decrease in prescribing relative to that expected had the pre-intervention trend continued. There was also a concurrent 2% relative reduction in the rate of broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing. Antibiotic prescribing for RTIs diagnosed in children showed the greatest decline with a 6% relative change two years after the intervention. Of the RTI indications studied, the greatest reductions in antibiotic prescribing were seen for patients with sore throats. Conclusions: Community prescribing of antibiotics for RTIs significantly decreased following the introduction of the Quality Premium, with the greatest reduction seen in younger patients

Presentations of children to emergency departments across Europe and the COVID-19 pandemic: A multinational observational study

BACKGROUND: During the initial phase of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, reduced numbers of acutely ill or injured children presented to emergency departments (EDs). Concerns were raised about the potential for delayed and more severe presentations and an increase in diagnoses such as diabetic ketoacidosis and mental health issues. This multinational observational study aimed to study the number of children presenting to EDs across Europe during the early COVID-19 pandemic and factors influencing this and to investigate changes in severity of illness and diagnoses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Routine health data were extracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children aged 18 years and under, presenting to 38 EDs in 16 European countries for the period January 2018 to May 2020, using predefined and standardized data domains. Observed and predicted numbers of ED attendances were calculated for the period February 2020 to May 2020. Poisson models and incidence rate ratios (IRRs), using predicted counts for each site as offset to adjust for case-mix differences, were used to compare age groups, diagnoses, and outcomes. Reductions in pediatric ED attendances, hospital admissions, and high triage urgencies were seen in all participating sites. ED attendances were relatively higher in countries with lower SARS-CoV-2 prevalence (IRR 2.26, 95% CI 1.90 to 2.70, p < 0.001) and in children aged <12 months (12 to <24 months IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.89; 2 to <5 years IRR 0.80, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.82; 5 to <12 years IRR 0.68, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.70; 12 to 18 years IRR 0.72, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.74; versus age <12 months as reference group, p < 0.001). The lowering of pediatric intensive care admissions was not as great as that of general admissions (IRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.45, p < 0.001). Lower triage urgencies were reduced more than higher triage urgencies (urgent triage IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.12; emergent and very urgent triage IRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.49 to 1.57; versus nonurgent triage category, p < 0.001). Reductions were highest and sustained throughout the study period for children with communicable infectious diseases. The main limitation was the retrospective nature of the study, using routine clinical data from a wide range of European hospitals and health systems. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in ED attendances were seen across Europe during the first COVID-19 lockdown period. More severely ill children continued to attend hospital more frequently compared to those with minor injuries and illnesses, although absolute numbers fell. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN91495258 https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91495258

Evaluating a digital sepsis alert in a London multi-site hospital network: a natural experiment using electronic health record data

Objective: To determine the impact of a digital sepsis alert on patient outcomes in a UK multi-site hospital network. Methods:A natural experiment utilising the phased introduction (without randomisation) of a digital sepsis alert into a multi-site hospital network. Sepsis alerts were either visible to clinicans (patients in the ‘intervention’ group) or running silently and not visible (the control group). Inverse probability of treatment weighted multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of the intervention on individual patient outcomes.Outcomes:In-hospital 30-day mortality (all inpatients), prolonged hospital stay (≥7 days) and timely antibiotics (≤60minutes of the alert) for patients who alerted in the Emergency Department. Results: The introduction of the alert was associated with lower odds of death (OR:0.76; 95%CI:(0.70, 0.84) n=21183); lower odds of prolonged hospital stay ≥7 days (OR:0.93; 95%CI:(0.88, 0.99) n=9988); and in patients who required antibiotics, an increased odds of receiving timely antibiotics (OR:1.71; 95%CI:(1.57, 1.87) n=4622).Discussion: Current evidence that digital sepsis alerts are effective is mixed. In this large UK study a digital sepsis alert has been shown to be associated with improved outcomes, including timely antibiotics. It is not known whether the presence of alerting is responsible for improved outcomes, or whether the alert acted as a useful driver for quality improvement initiatives.Conclusions: These findings strongly suggest that the the introduction of a network-wide digital sepsis alert is associated with improvements in patient outcomes, demonstrating that digital based interventions can be successfully introduced and readily evaluated

Factors that impact on the burden of Escherichia coli bacteraemia: multivariable regression analysis of 2011-2015 data from West London

Background The incidence of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England is increasing amid concern regarding the roles of antimicrobial resistance and nosocomial acquisition on burden of disease. Aim To determine the relative contributions of hospital-onset E. coli blood stream infection and specific E. coli antimicrobial resistance patterns to the burden and severity of E. coli bacteremia in West London. Methods Patient and antimicrobial susceptibility data were collected for all cases of E. coli bacteraemia between 2011 and 2015. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association between the category of infection (hospital or community-onset) and length of stay, intensive care unit admission, and 30-day all-cause mortality. Findings E. coli bacteraemia incidence increased by 76% during the study period, predominantly due to community-onset cases. Resistance to quinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, and aminoglycosides also increased over the study period, occurring in both community- and hospital-onset cases. Hospital-onset and non-susceptibility to either quinolones or third-generation cephalosporins were significant risk factors for prolonged length of stay, as was older age. Rates of mortality were 7% and 12% at 7 and 30 days, respectively. Older age, a higher comorbidity score, and bacteraemia caused by strains resistant to three antibiotic classes were all significant risk factors for mortality at 30 days. Conclusion Multidrug resistance, increased age, and comorbidities were the main drivers of adverse outcome. The rise in E. coli bacteraemia was predominantly driven by community-onset infections, and initiatives to prevent community-onset cases should be a major focus to reduce the quantitative burden of E. coli infection

Population characteristics, mechanisms of primary care and premature mortality in England : a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES: Health systems with strong primary care tend to have better population outcomes, but in many countries demand for care is growing. We sought to identify mechanisms of primary care that influence premature mortality. DESIGN: We developed a conceptual model of the mechanisms by which primary care influences premature mortality, and undertook a cross-sectional study in which population and primary care variables reflecting the model were used to explain variations in mortality of those aged under 75 years. The premature standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for each practice, available from the Department of Health, had been calculated from numbers of deaths in the 5 years from 2006 to 2010. A regression model was undertaken with explanatory variables for the year 2009/2010, and repeated to check stability using data for 2008/2009 and 2010/2011. SETTING: All general practices in England were eligible for inclusion and, of the total of 8290, complete data were available for 7858. RESULTS: Population variables, particularly deprivation, were the most powerful predictors of premature mortality, but the mechanisms of primary care depicted in our model also affected mortality. The number of GPs/1000 population and detection of hypertension were negatively associated with mortality. In less deprived practices, continuity of care was also negatively associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Greater supply of primary care is associated with lower premature mortality even in a health system that has strong primary care (England). Health systems need to sustain the capacity of primary care to deliver effective care, and should assist primary care providers in identifying and meeting the needs of socioeconomically deprived groups