Exponential Conditional Volatility Models

The asymptotic distribution of maximum likelihood estimators is derived for a class of exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models. The result carries over to models for duration and realised volatility that use an exponential link function. A key feature of the model formulation is that the dynamics are driven by the score

Poetry as testimony: Primo Levi's collected poems

The article reviews the book "Poetry as Testimony: Primo Levi's Collected Poems," by Antony Rowland

Facial expression of pain: an evolutionary account.

This paper proposes that human expression of pain in the presence or absence of caregivers, and the detection of pain by observers, arises from evolved propensities. The function of pain is to demand attention and prioritise escape, recovery, and healing; where others can help achieve these goals, effective communication of pain is required. Evidence is reviewed of a distinct and specific facial expression of pain from infancy to old age, consistent across stimuli, and recognizable as pain by observers. Voluntary control over amplitude is incomplete, and observers can better detect pain that the individual attempts to suppress rather than amplify or simulate. In many clinical and experimental settings, the facial expression of pain is incorporated with verbal and nonverbal vocal activity, posture, and movement in an overall category of pain behaviour. This is assumed by clinicians to be under operant control of social contingencies such as sympathy, caregiving, and practical help; thus, strong facial expression is presumed to constitute and attempt to manipulate these contingencies by amplification of the normal expression. Operant formulations support skepticism about the presence or extent of pain, judgments of malingering, and sometimes the withholding of caregiving and help. To the extent that pain expression is influenced by environmental contingencies, however, "amplification" could equally plausibly constitute the release of suppression according to evolved contingent propensities that guide behaviour. Pain has been largely neglected in the evolutionary literature and the literature on expression of emotion, but an evolutionary account can generate improved assessment of pain and reactions to it

Disability Awareness for Libraries – How Have the Open Rose Group Used Their Training Package in Four Member Institutions?

At Leeds Met, we have delivered four workshops on dyslexia to over 70 staff. We watched the fi lm, did a language de-coding exercise, a short quiz, we also asked staff to pick out who they thought was dyslexic from a picture list of 30 famous people, varying our materials and delivery styles. We then did something a little different to our usual training format and made the scenario session in the supporting materials very hands on, the idea being to take staff out of their comfort zones and make the library a frustrating place to be

Planned Adaptation in Design and Testing of Critical Infrastructure: The Case of Flood Safety in The Netherlands

In the Netherlands, dykes and other primary water defence works are assets that are essential to keep the society and economy functioning, by protecting against flooding from sea and rivers due to extreme events. Given that 55% of the country is at risk of flooding, primary water defence works belong to its critical infrastructure. Many factors influence the risk and impact of flooding. Besides physical factors (e.g., landscape design, climate change) also socio-economic factors (e.g., population, assets) are important. Given that these factors change and feature complex and uncertain behaviour in past and future, the design and regulation of this critical infrastructure will have to be flexible enough to be able to deal with such changes. ‘Planned Adaptation’ refers to regulatory programmes that plan for future changes in knowledge by producing new knowledge and revising rules at regular intervals. This study describes the emergence of the next generation of Dutch primary water defence infrastructure, which through the stepwise implementation of Planned Adaptation for design and testing of primary water defence works in the mid-1990s has moved beyond the Delta Works approach of 1953 and subsequent unplanned adaptations. This has prepared the ground for the recent introduction of Adaptive Delta Management, which makes an integral part of the new Delta Plan for the Netherlands that was published on 16 September 2014 and which is also analysed in this study