Spatial price dynamics in the EU F&V sector: the cases of tomato and cauliflower

The paper explores the characteristics of spatial price dynamics for fresh vegetables. The analysis is carried out on selected EU prices for tomatoes and cauliflowers collected on some of the main production and consumption markets. It is based on the estimation of an time-varying threshold autoregressive econometric specification that is shown capable to underline the asymmetries in inter-Countries price transmission. The model shows that that horizontal price transmissions among net producer and net consumer markets is asymmetric and how such characteristic differs for markets closer to production areas or to consumption locations. This paper allowed to assess the average elapsing time for shocks to be transmitted among spatially separated markets, and, in particular, it shows the speed of transmission of price raises and price falls.price transmission, TVECM, vegetables, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Labor and Human Capital,

The entry price threshold in EU F&V sector: deterrence or effective barrier?

The paper investigates the effects of the entry price scheme for fresh fruit and vegetables. The analysis is conducted on the EU prices of tomatoes, lemons and apples for some of the main competing countries on the EU domestic markets: Morocco, Argentina, Turkey and China. The econometric analysis is based on testing and estimating a switching vector autoregressive model with endogenous threshold entry price level. The model shows the isolation effects and the accumulation of SIVs above the trigger entry price. This paper contributes to clarify the role played by the EPS in avoid or deter low priced imports from main EU partner Countries.Fruits and vegetables, Entry price system, trade policy, TVAR, Agricultural and Food Policy, F13, Q17, Q18,

Development of the autoinflammatory disease damage index (ADDI)

OBJECTIVES: Autoinflammatory diseases cause systemic inflammation that can result in damage to multiple organs. A validated instrument is essential to quantify damage in individual patients and to compare disease outcomes in clinical studies. Currently, there is no such tool. Our objective was to develop a common autoinflammatory disease damage index (ADDI) for familial Mediterranean fever, cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes, tumour necrosis factor receptor-associated periodic fever syndrome and mevalonate kinase deficiency. METHODS: We developed the ADDI by consensus building. The top 40 enrollers of patients in the Eurofever Registry and 9 experts from the Americas participated in multiple rounds of online surveys to select items and definitions. Further, 22 (parents of) patients rated damage items and suggested new items. A consensus meeting was held to refine the items and definitions, which were then formally weighted in a scoring system derived using decision-making software, known as 1000minds. RESULTS: More than 80% of the experts and patients completed the online surveys. The preliminary ADDI contains 18 items, categorised in the following eight organ systems: reproductive, renal/amyloidosis, developmental, serosal, neurological, ears, ocular and musculoskeletal damage. The categories renal/amyloidosis and neurological damage were assigned the highest number of points, serosal damage the lowest number of points. The involvement of (parents of) patients resulted in the inclusion of, for example, chronic musculoskeletal pain. CONCLUSIONS: An instrument to measure damage caused by autoinflammatory diseases is developed based on consensus building. Patients fulfilled a significant role in this process

Factors affecting adherence to guidelines for antithrombotic therapy in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation admitted to internal medicine wards

Current guidelines for ischemic stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) recommend Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for patients at high-intermediate risk and aspirin for those at intermediate-low risk. The cost-effectiveness of these treatments was demonstrated also in elderly patients. However, there are several reports that emphasize the underuse of pharmacological prophylaxis of cardio-embolism in patients with AFF in different health care settings. AIMS: To evaluate the adherence to current guidelines on cardio-embolic prophylaxis in elderly (> 65 years old) patients admitted with an established diagnosis of AFF to the Italian internal medicine wards participating in REPOSI registry, a project on polypathologies/polytherapies stemming from the collaboration between the Italian Society of Internal Medicine and the Mario Negri Institute of Pharmacological Research; to investigate whether or not hospitalization had an impact on guidelines adherence; to test the role of possible modifiers of VKAs prescription. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed registry data collected from January to December 2008 and assessed the prevalence of patients with AFF at admission and the prevalence of risk factors for cardio-embolism. After stratifying the patients according to their CHADS(2) score the percentage of appropriateness of antithrombotic therapy prescription was evaluated both at admission and at discharge. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were employed to verify whether or not socio-demographic (age >80years, living alone) and clinical features (previous or recent bleeding, cranio-facial trauma, cancer, dementia) modified the frequency and modalities of antithrombotic drugs prescription at admission and discharge. RESULTS: Among the 1332 REPOSI patients, 247 were admitted with AFF. At admission, CHADS(2) score was ≥ 2 in 68.4% of patients, at discharge in 75.9%. Among patients with AFF 26.5% at admission and 32.8% at discharge were not on any antithrombotic therapy, and 43.7% at admission and 40.9% at discharge were not taking an appropriate therapy according to the CHADS(2) score. The higher the level of cardio-embolic risk the higher was the percentage of antiplatelet- but not of VKAs-treated patients. At admission or at discharge, both at univariable and at multivariable logistic regression, only an age >80 years and a diagnosis of cancer, previous or active, had a statistically significant negative effect on VKAs prescription. Moreover, only a positive history of bleeding events (past or present) was independently associated to no VKA prescription at discharge in patients who were on VKA therapy at admission. If heparin was considered as an appropriate therapy for patients with indication for VKAs, the percentage of patients admitted or discharged on appropriate therapy became respectively 43.7% and 53.4%. CONCLUSION: Among elderly patients admitted with a diagnosis of AFF to internal medicine wards, an appropriate antithrombotic prophylaxis was taken by less than 50%, with an underuse of VKAs prescription independently of the level of cardio-embolic risk. Hospitalization did not improve the adherence to guideline

Credal Networks under Epistemic Irrelevance

A credal network under epistemic irrelevance is a generalised type of Bayesian network that relaxes its two main building blocks. On the one hand, the local probabilities are allowed to be partially specified. On the other hand, the assessments of independence do not have to hold exactly. Conceptually, these two features turn credal networks under epistemic irrelevance into a powerful alternative to Bayesian networks, offering a more flexible approach to graph-based multivariate uncertainty modelling. However, in practice, they have long been perceived as very hard to work with, both theoretically and computationally. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that this perception is no longer justified. We provide a general introduction to credal networks under epistemic irrelevance, give an overview of the state of the art, and present several new theoretical results. Most importantly, we explain how these results can be combined to allow for the design of recursive inference methods. We provide numerous concrete examples of how this can be achieved, and use these to demonstrate that computing with credal networks under epistemic irrelevance is most definitely feasible, and in some cases even highly efficient. We also discuss several philosophical aspects, including the lack of symmetry, how to deal with probability zero, the interpretation of lower expectations, the axiomatic status of graphoid properties, and the difference between updating and conditioning

Reasoning with imprecise probabilities

This special issue of the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (IJAR) grew out of the 4th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications (ISIPTA’05), held in Pittsburgh, USA, in July 2005 (http://www.sipta.org/isipta05). The symposium was organized by Teddy Seidenfeld, Robert Nau, and Fabio G. Cozman, and brought together researchers from various branches interested in imprecision in probabilities. Research in artificial intelligence, economics, engineering, psychology, philosophy, statistics, and other fields was presented at the meeting, in a lively atmosphere that fostered communication and debate. Invited talks by Isaac Levi and Arthur Dempster enlightened the attendants, while tutorials by Gert de Cooman, Paolo Vicig, and Kurt Weichselberger introduced basic (and advanced) concepts; finally, the symposium ended with a workshop on financial risk assessment, organized by Teddy Seidenfeld

Agritourism flows to Italy: an analysis of determinants using the gravity model approach

Tourism represents one of the most important income sources for Italy. In recent years, apart from “traditional” destinations, tourism supply is widely changing in order to satisfy the customers “love for variety” and valorise marginal resources, then new formulas are emerging (e.g. agritourism). This work aims to elaborate and estimate an econometric model able to adequately explain the size of agritourists flows to Italy from main partner countries using the gravity model approach that has been broadly applied to the analysis of international flows. In this work, the “basic” model has been enlarged and improved with the introduction of other explicative variables. The results has allowed to confirm empirical validity of the gravity model in studying international flows of any nature. Furthermore, the estimated econometric model represents a useful analytical instrument to describe, and, eventually, predict demand of foreign visitors for agritourist vacations in Italy.Gravity Model, Agritourism, Rural tourism, Tourism flows, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,