Towards accurate prediction for high-dimensional and highly-variable cloud workloads with deep learning

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via the DOI in this recordResource provisioning for cloud computing necessitates the adaptive and accurate prediction of cloud workloads. However, the existing methods cannot effectively predict the high-dimensional and highly-variable cloud workloads. This results in resource wasting and inability to satisfy service level agreements (SLAs). Since recurrent neural network (RNN) is naturally suitable for sequential data analysis, it has been recently used to tackle the problem of workload prediction. However, RNN often performs poorly on learning longterm memory dependencies, and thus cannot make the accurate prediction of workloads. To address these important challenges, we propose a deep Learning based Prediction Algorithm for cloud Workloads (L-PAW). First, a top-sparse auto-encoder (TSA) is designed to effectively extract the essential representations of workloads from the original high-dimensional workload data. Next, we integrate TSA and gated recurrent unit (GRU) block into RNN to achieve the adaptive and accurate prediction for highly-variable workloads. Using realworld workload traces from Google and Alibaba cloud data centers and the DUX-based cluster, extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and adaptability of the L-PAW for different types of workloads with various prediction lengths. Moreover, the performance results show that the L-PAW achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to the classic RNN-based and other workload prediction methods for high-dimensional and highly-variable real-world cloud workloads

A Hierarchical Framework of Cloud Resource Allocation and Power Management Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Automatic decision-making approaches, such as reinforcement learning (RL), have been applied to (partially) solve the resource allocation problem adaptively in the cloud computing system. However, a complete cloud resource allocation framework exhibits high dimensions in state and action spaces, which prohibit the usefulness of traditional RL techniques. In addition, high power consumption has become one of the critical concerns in design and control of cloud computing systems, which degrades system reliability and increases cooling cost. An effective dynamic power management (DPM) policy should minimize power consumption while maintaining performance degradation within an acceptable level. Thus, a joint virtual machine (VM) resource allocation and power management framework is critical to the overall cloud computing system. Moreover, novel solution framework is necessary to address the even higher dimensions in state and action spaces. In this paper, we propose a novel hierarchical framework for solving the overall resource allocation and power management problem in cloud computing systems. The proposed hierarchical framework comprises a global tier for VM resource allocation to the servers and a local tier for distributed power management of local servers. The emerging deep reinforcement learning (DRL) technique, which can deal with complicated control problems with large state space, is adopted to solve the global tier problem. Furthermore, an autoencoder and a novel weight sharing structure are adopted to handle the high-dimensional state space and accelerate the convergence speed. On the other hand, the local tier of distributed server power managements comprises an LSTM based workload predictor and a model-free RL based power manager, operating in a distributed manner.Comment: accepted by 37th IEEE International Conference on Distributed Computing (ICDCS 2017

Predicting Scheduling Failures in the Cloud

Cloud Computing has emerged as a key technology to deliver and manage computing, platform, and software services over the Internet. Task scheduling algorithms play an important role in the efficiency of cloud computing services as they aim to reduce the turnaround time of tasks and improve resource utilization. Several task scheduling algorithms have been proposed in the literature for cloud computing systems, the majority relying on the computational complexity of tasks and the distribution of resources. However, several tasks scheduled following these algorithms still fail because of unforeseen changes in the cloud environments. In this paper, using tasks execution and resource utilization data extracted from the execution traces of real world applications at Google, we explore the possibility of predicting the scheduling outcome of a task using statistical models. If we can successfully predict tasks failures, we may be able to reduce the execution time of jobs by rescheduling failed tasks earlier (i.e., before their actual failing time). Our results show that statistical models can predict task failures with a precision up to 97.4%, and a recall up to 96.2%. We simulate the potential benefits of such predictions using the tool kit GloudSim and found that they can improve the number of finished tasks by up to 40%. We also perform a case study using the Hadoop framework of Amazon Elastic MapReduce (EMR) and the jobs of a gene expression correlations analysis study from breast cancer research. We find that when extending the scheduler of Hadoop with our predictive models, the percentage of failed jobs can be reduced by up to 45%, with an overhead of less than 5 minutes

Scheduling, Characterization and Prediction of HPC Workloads for Distributed Computing Environments

As High Performance Computing (HPC) has grown considerably and is expected to grow even more, effective resource management for distributed computing sys- tems is motivated more than ever. As the computational workloads grow in quantity, it is becoming more crucial to apply efficient resource management and workload scheduling to use resources efficiently while keeping the computational performance reasonably good. The problem of efficiently scheduling workloads on resources while meeting performance standards is hard. Additionally, non-clairvoyance of job dimen- sions makes resource management even harder in real-world scenarios. Our research methodology investigates the scheduling problem compliant for HPC and researches the challenges for deploying the scheduling in real world-scenarios using state of the art machine learning and data science techniques.To this end, this Ph.D. dissertation makes the following core contributions: a) We perform a theoretical analysis of space-sharing, non-preemptive scheduling: we studied this scheduling problem and proposed scheduling algorithms with polyno- mial computation time. We also proved constant upper-bounds for the performance of these algorithms. b) We studied the sensitivity of scheduling algorithms to the accuracy of runtime and devised a meta-learning approach to estimate prediction accuracy for newly submitted jobs to the HPC system. c) We studied the runtime prediction problem for HPC applications. For this purpose, we studied the distri- bution of available public workloads and proposed two different solutions that can predict multi-modal distributions: switching state-space models and Mixture Density Networks. d) We studied the effectiveness of recent recurrent neural network models for CPU usage trace prediction for individual VM traces as well as aggregate CPU usage traces. In this dissertation, we explore solutions to improve the performance of scheduling workloads on distributed systems.We begin by looking at the problem from the theoretical perspective. Modeling the problem mathematically, we first propose a scheduling algorithm that finds a constant approximation of the optimal solution for the problem in polynomial time. We prove that the performance of the algorithm (average completion time is the constant approximation of the performance of the optimal scheduling. We next look at the problem in real-world scenarios. Considering High-Performance Computing (HPC) workload computing environments as the most similar real-world equivalent of our mathematical model, we explore the problem of predicting application runtime. We propose an algorithm to handle the existing uncertainties in the real world and show-case our algorithm with demonstrative effectiveness in terms of response time and resource utilization. After looking at the uncertainty problem, we focus on trying to improve the accuracy of existing prediction approaches for HPC application runtime. We propose two solutions, one based on Kalman filters and one based on deep density mixture networks. We showcase the effectiveness of our prediction approaches by comparing with previous prediction approaches in terms of prediction accuracy and impact on improving scheduling performance. In the end, we focus on predicting resource usage for individual applications during their execution. We explore the application of recurrent neural networks for predicting resource usage of applications deployed on individual virtual machines. To validate our proposed models and solutions, we performed extensive trace-driven simulation and measured the effectiveness of our approaches

An Efficient Online Prediction of Host Workloads Using Pruned GRU Neural Nets

Host load prediction is essential for dynamic resource scaling and job scheduling in a cloud computing environment. In this context, workload prediction is challenging because of several issues. First, it must be accurate to enable precise scheduling decisions. Second, it must be fast to schedule at the right time. Third, a model must be able to account for new patterns of workloads so it can perform well on the latest and old patterns. Not being able to make an accurate and fast prediction or the inability to predict new usage patterns can result in severe outcomes such as service level agreement (SLA) misses. Our research trains a fast model with the ability of online adaptation based on the gated recurrent unit (GRU) to mitigate the mentioned issues. We use a multivariate approach using several features, such as memory usage, CPU usage, disk I/O usage, and disk space, to perform the predictions accurately. Moreover, we predict multiple steps ahead, which is essential for making scheduling decisions in advance. Furthermore, we use two pruning methods: L1 norm and random, to produce a sparse model for faster forecasts. Finally, online learning is used to create a model that can adapt over time to new workload patterns

Adaptive prediction models for data center resources utilization estimation

Accurate estimation of data center resource utilization is a challenging task due to multi-tenant co-hosted applications having dynamic and time-varying workloads. Accurate estimation of future resources utilization helps in better job scheduling, workload placement, capacity planning, proactive auto-scaling, and load balancing. The inaccurate estimation leads to either under or over-provisioning of data center resources. Most existing estimation methods are based on a single model that often does not appropriately estimate different workload scenarios. To address these problems, we propose a novel method to adaptively and automatically identify the most appropriate model to accurately estimate data center resources utilization. The proposed approach trains a classifier based on statistical features of historical resources usage to decide the appropriate prediction model to use for given resource utilization observations collected during a specific time interval. We evaluated our approach on real datasets and compared the results with multiple baseline methods. The experimental evaluation shows that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches and delivers 6% to 27% improved resource utilization estimation accuracy compared to baseline methods.This work is partially supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the EU Horizon 2020 programme (GA 639595), the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness (TIN2015-65316-P and IJCI2016-27485), the Generalitat de Catalunya (2014-SGR-1051), and NPRP grant # NPRP9-224-1-049 from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation) and University of the Punjab, Pakistan.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Predictive auto-scaling with OpenStack Monasca

Cloud auto-scaling mechanisms are typically based on reactive automation rules that scale a cluster whenever some metric, e.g., the average CPU usage among instances, exceeds a predefined threshold. Tuning these rules becomes particularly cumbersome when scaling-up a cluster involves non-negligible times to bootstrap new instances, as it happens frequently in production cloud services. To deal with this problem, we propose an architecture for auto-scaling cloud services based on the status in which the system is expected to evolve in the near future. Our approach leverages on time-series forecasting techniques, like those based on machine learning and artificial neural networks, to predict the future dynamics of key metrics, e.g., resource consumption metrics, and apply a threshold-based scaling policy on them. The result is a predictive automation policy that is able, for instance, to automatically anticipate peaks in the load of a cloud application and trigger ahead of time appropriate scaling actions to accommodate the expected increase in traffic. We prototyped our approach as an open-source OpenStack component, which relies on, and extends, the monitoring capabilities offered by Monasca, resulting in the addition of predictive metrics that can be leveraged by orchestration components like Heat or Senlin. We show experimental results using a recurrent neural network and a multi-layer perceptron as predictor, which are compared with a simple linear regression and a traditional non-predictive auto-scaling policy. However, the proposed framework allows for the easy customization of the prediction policy as needed