Bowtie models as preventive models in maritime safety

Aquest treball ha sorgit d’una proposta del Dr. Rodrigo de Larrucea que ha acabat de publicar un llibre ambiciós sobre Seguretat Marítima. Com ell mateix diu, el tema “excedeix amb molt les potencialitats de l’autor”, així que en el meu cas això és més cert. Es pot aspirar, però, a fer una modesta contribució a l’estudi i difusió de la seguretat de la cultura marítima, que només apareix a les notícies quan tenen lloc desastres molt puntuals. En qualsevol cas, el professor em va proposar que em centrés en els Bowtie Models, models en corbatí, que integren l’arbre de causes y el de conseqüències (en anglès el Fault Tree Analysis, FTA, i l’Event Tree Analysis, ETA). Certament, existeixen altres metodologies i aproximacions (i en el seu llibre en presenta vàries, resumides), però per la seva senzillesa conceptual i possibilitat de generalització i integració dels resultats era una bona aposta. Així, després d’una fase de meditació i recopilació de informació, em vaig decidir a presentar un model en corbatí molt general on caben les principals causes d’accidents (factores ambientals, error humà i fallada mecànica), comptant també que pot existir una combinació de causes. De tota manera, a l’hora d’explotar aquest model existeix la gran dificultat de donar una probabilitat de ocurrència, un nombre entre 0 i 1, a cada branca. Normalment les probabilitats d’ocurrència són petites i degut a això difícils d’estimar. Cada accident és diferent, de grans catàstrofes n’hi ha poques, i cada accident ja és estudiat de manera exhaustiva (més exhaustiva quan més greu és). Un altre factor que dificulta l’estima de la probabilitat de fallada és l’evolució constant del món marítim, tant des del punt de vista tècnic, de formació, legal i fins i tot generacional doncs cada generació de marins és diferent. Els esforços estan doncs enfocats a augmentar la seguretat, encara que sempre amb un ull posat sobre els costs. Així, he presentat un model en corbatí pel seu valor didàctic i gràfic però sense entrar en detalls numèrics, que si s’escau ja aniré afinant i interioritzant en l’exercici de la professió. En aquest treball també he intentat no mantenir-me totalment al costat de la teoria (ja se sap que si tot es fa bé, tot surt perfecte, etc…) sinó presentar amb cert detall 2 casos ben coneguts d’accidents marítims: el petroler Exxon Valdez, el 1989 i el ferry Estonia en 1994, entre altres esmentats. Són casos ja una mica vells però que van contribuir a augmentar la cultura de la seguretat, fins a arribar al nivell del que gaudim actualment, al menys als països occidentals. Doncs la seguretat, com esmenta Rodrigo de Larrucea “és una actitud i mai és fortuïta; sempre és el resultat d’una voluntat decidida, un esforç sincer, una direcció intel·ligent i una execució acurada. Sens lloc a dubtes, sempre suposa la millor alternativa”. The work has been inspired in its initial aspects by the book of my tutor Jaime Rodrigo de Larrucea, that presents a state of the art of all the maritime aspects related to safety. Evidently, since it covers all the topics, it cannot deepen on every topic. It was my opportunity to deepen in the Bowtie Model but finally I have also covered a wide variety of topics. Later, when I began to study the topics, I realized that the people in the maritime world usually do not understand to a great extent statistics. Everybody is concerned about safety but few nautical students take a probabilistic approach to the accidents. For this it is extremely important to study the population that is going to be studied: in our case the SOLAS ships Also, during my time at Riga, I have been very concerned with the most diverse accidents, some of them studied during the courses at Barcelona. I have seen that it is difficult to model mathematically the accidents, since each one has different characteristics, angles, and surely there are not 2 equal. Finally, it was accorded that I should concentrate on the Bowtie Model, which is not very complex from a statistical point of view. It is simply a fault tree of events model and a tree of effects. I present some examples in this Chapter 2. The difficulty I point out is to try to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of events that are unusual. We concentrated at major accidents, those that may cause victims or heavy losses. Then, for the sake of generality, at Chapter 4, I have divided the causes in 4 great classes: Natural hazards, human factor, mechanical failure and attacks (piracy and terrorism). The last concern maybe should not be included beside the others since terrorism and piracy acts are not accidents, but since there is an important code dedicated to prevent security threats, ISPS, it is example of design of barriers to prevent an undesired event (although it gives mainly guidelines to follow by the States, Port Terminals and Shipping Companies). I have presented a detailed study of the tragedy of the Estonia, showing how a mechanical failure triggered the failure of the ferry, by its nature a delicate ship, but there were other factors such as poor maintenance and heavy seas. At the next Chapter, certain characteristics of error chains are analyzed. Finally, the conclusions are drawn, offering a pretty optimistic view of the safety (and security) culture at the Western World but that may not easily permeate the entire World, due to the associated costs

Transport 2040: Autonomous ships: A new paradigm for Norwegian shipping - Technology and transformation

The main section of this study summarizes overall trends and provides a global overview about developments in all four modes of transport. However, as highlighted in its main findings, technology and automation evolves in different ways in different contexts and environments.https://commons.wmu.se/lib_reports/1072/thumbnail.jp

Saving energy at sea: seafarers’ adoption, appropriation and enactment of technologies supporting energy efficiency

The shipping industry is currently facing a major challenge related to environmental sustainability and energy efficiency. New regulations and ambitious international goals that aim at mitigating carbon-based emissions with 50 %, demands on profitability, along with a growing awareness about the climate change, has prompted the maritime sector to increasingly focus on how to improve energy efficiency and reduce fuel consumption in ship operations. This thesis aims at describing and understanding the challenges of improving energy efficiency seen from the lens of crew members’ work and to investigate the adoption, appropriation and use of particular technologies, purported to support energy efficiency in ship operation. Using an ethnographic approach and drawing on various practice-based concepts and theories such as communities of practice, activity theory and the imbrication of material and social agency, the four papers (I – IV) included in the thesis were based on extensive field studies in two shipping companies and onboard 11 passenger ferries. The empirical studies revealed that the introduction of new technologies and their subsequent incorporation in and change of established skills and practices is a complex social process depending on the knowing and learning of practitioners as well as their activities, meanings, identities and norms as developed and negotiated in specific settings over time. The thesis contributes to our general understanding of the situated process of adoption, appropriation and use of new technologies in the maritime domain and the sociomaterial nature of energy efficiency

High-speed craft (HSC) : a study of their safe operation and navigation, and their impact upon the Malacca Strait

The dissertation is a study of the safe operation and navigation of High-speed Craft (HSC) and their impact upon the Malacca Strait. The definitions of HSC are compared and illustrated. The future trend, growth and development of current types of HSC and their inherent design limitations are investigated. The maneuvering systems and characteristics of HSC are analyzed. The active safety system employed by HSC is compared to the passive safety system of conventional vessels. The operation and navigation problems due to high-speed are investigated. The human resource management methods of reducing human errors are discussed. The navigational requirements of the HSC Code are reviewed to determine its weaknesses. The difficulties in various operational environments and the importance of appropriate aids to navigation are discussed. The collision avoidance techniques used by HSC operators are examined to determine their impact on the Colregs. Relevant rules affected by these techniques are discussed with a view of suggesting possible solutions. The factors affecting the development of HSC services in the littoral states of Malacca Strait are explored. Particular reference is made to developments in Malaysia. A brief look is taken at the marine environment in the Malacca Strait. The proposals by the littoral states to the International Maritime Organization to enhance the safety of navigation and the protection of the marine environment are considered for further improvement. Additionally, training methodology for HSC operators by a number of institutions is also investigated. The concluding chapters examine the results of the study and recommendations are made concerning the need to revise Chapter 13 of the HSC Code and the International Convention for Preventing Collisions at Sea. Proposals are also made regarding the need to improve the aids to navigation and the safety of navigation in the Malacca Strait

THE VIABILITY OF COMMERCIALIZING WING-IN-GROUND (WIG) CRAFT IN CONNECTION WITH TECHNICAL, ECONOMIC AND SAFETY ASPECTS FOLLOWED BY IMO LEGISLATION

The dissertation is a study of the viability of commercialization of the Wing-In-Ground (WIG) craft, which is a novel type of marine transportation, currently being developed, so not yet commercialized in full scale. A brief look is taken at present development, and at the historical overview of WIG craft. The main principles and technical issues of WIG craft are examined, taking into account whether there are technical barriers or not. On account of the inherent peculiarities of WIG craft, which possess the characteristics of both aircraft and ship, the legal status of WIG craft is obscure to some extent. The legal status of WIG craft is involved with IMO and ICAO, current international legislations and legal issues of WIG craft are examined. Economic reasonableness for WIG craft is analyzed in both theoretical and practical methods. Economic efficiencies and effectiveness of WIG craft are evaluated by various theories. Directing operating costs are analyzed and evaluated, comparing the results of WIG craft obtained by the model with those of other vehicles for the purpose of examining economic reasonableness.Additionally, safety related matters which are essential for commercialization of WIG craft are discussed. A few recommendations are made to encourage commercialization of WIG craft

A scenario for the avoidance of dangerous stability situations

Ship Stability is one of the maritime subjects which raises lot of enthusiasm and controversy. As long as ships continue to be lost at sea, the need will exist for a constant reviewing of stability standards and increasing exigency to provide more effective regulations. The present study will be focussed on three main modules. These modules are: technology, regulations and training. Whenever an accident happened at sea people are called to find probable persons or authorities responsible. They concentrated their research on: the ship Master and crew, the national and international regulations and the ship. As far as navigation is concerned, the master will be responsible, from a legal point of view, for any accident or damage caused by his ship to any other things. The problem highlighted here is to know if the ship master get the necessary technical background to confront all kinds of situation he might encounter at sea. This study will be divided into five chapters. The first chapter deals with what we can call the naval architecture heritage. The characteristic conditions of a vessel are the doing of the naval architect. As far as the building is finished the Master will just have to cope with it. The second chapter concerns the factors affecting the ship stability and mostly the marine environment. The marine environment in which the ship will sail for all its life is not always friendly. Chapter three is about how ship Masters use the information given by the shipbuilder in order to find the best conditions in which they can navigate safely and in accordance with the regulations. The case study is only one of various incident that can happen if something goes wrong or somebody makes a mistake. The case of the HERALD OF FREE ENTERPRISE is interesting in the way that it raises many problems and questions involving all the parties concerned. Finally it is time to try to understand what training can and must do in order* to improve the navigation conditions. On other hand we will look at the International Maritime Organization for assistance in upgrading trainers

Experiences with a Commercial ECDIS

The integration of accurate positioning and electronic charts provides an extremely valuable tool to the mariner when navigating under hazardous conditions. This paper describes the experiences of two organizations in Canada who work under such conditions. On the St. Lawrence River, the Canadian Coast Guard is using the PINS 9000, a commercial ECDIS, for ice breaking chores with few, if any, other aids and has demonstrated operational savings. Marine Atlantic, Inc., uses the same system for ferry navigation into and out of Port aux Basques, Newfoundland, where it not only assists in meeting a tight schedule, but also enhances safety when operating in difficult conditions