A critical review of wind power forecasting methods - past, present and future

The largest obstacle that suppresses the increase of wind power penetration within the power grid is uncertainties and fluctuations in wind speeds. Therefore, accurate wind power forecasting is a challenging task, which can significantly impact the effective operation of power systems. Wind power forecasting is also vital for planning unit commitment, maintenance scheduling and profit maximisation of power traders. The current development of cost-effective operation and maintenance methods for modern wind turbines benefits from the advancement of effective and accurate wind power forecasting approaches. This paper systematically reviewed the state-of-the-art approaches of wind power forecasting with regard to physical, statistical (time series and artificial neural networks) and hybrid methods, including factors that affect accuracy and computational time in the predictive modelling efforts. Besides, this study provided a guideline for wind power forecasting process screening, allowing the wind turbine/farm operators to identify the most appropriate predictive methods based on time horizons, input features, computational time, error measurements, etc. More specifically, further recommendations for the research community of wind power forecasting were proposed based on reviewed literature

A novel framework for medium-term wind power prediction based on temporal attention mechanisms

Wind energy is a widely distributed, recyclable and environmentally friendly energy source that plays an important role in mitigating global warming and energy shortages. Wind energy's uncertainty and fluctuating nature makes grid integration of large-scale wind energy systems challenging. Medium-term wind power forecasts can provide an essential basis for energy dispatch, so accurate wind power forecasts are essential. Much research has yielded excellent results in recent years. However, many of them require additional experimentation and analysis when applied to other data. In this paper, we propose a novel short-term forecasting framework by tree-structured parzen estimator (TPE) and decomposition algorithms. This framework defines the TPE-VMD-TFT method for 24-h and 48-h ahead wind power forecasting based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and time fusion transformer (TFT). In the Engie wind dataset from the electricity company in France, the results show that the proposed method significantly improves the prediction accuracy. In addition, the proposed framework can be used to other decomposition algorithms and require little manual work in model training

Spatiotemporal graphical modeling for cyber-physical systems

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are combinations of physical processes and network computation. Modern CPSs such as smart buildings, power plants, transportation networks, and power-grids have shown tremendous potential for increased efficiency, robustness, and resilience. However, such modern CPSs encounter a large variety of physical faults and cyber anomalies, and in many cases are vulnerable to catastrophic fault propagation scenarios due to strong connectivity among their sub-systems. To address these issues, this study proposes a graphical modeling framework to monitor and predict the performance of CPSs in a scalable and robust way. This thesis investigates on two critical CPS applications to evaluate the effectiveness of this proposed framework, namely (i) health monitoring of highway traffic sensors and (ii) building energy consumption prediction. In highway traffic sensor networks, accurate traffic sensor data is essential for traffic operation management systems and acquisition of real-time traffic surveillance data depends heavily on the reliability of the physical systems. Therefore, detecting the health status of the sensors in a traffic sensor network is critical for the departments of transportation as well as other public and private entities, especially in the circumstances where real-time decision making is required. With the purpose of efficiently determining the traffic network status and identifying failed sensor(s), this study proposes a cost-effective spatiotemporal graphical modeling approach called spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN). Traffic speed and volume measurement sensors are used in this work to formulate and analyze the proposed sensor health monitoring system. The historical time-series data from the networked traffic sensors on the Interstate 35 (I-35) within the state of Iowa is used for validation. Based on the validation results, this study demonstrates that the proposed graphical modeling approach can: (i) extract spatiotemporal dependencies among the different sensors which lead to an efficient graphical representation of the sensor network in the information space, and (ii) distinguish and quantify a sensor issue by leveraging the extracted spatiotemporal relationship of the candidate sensor(s) to the other sensors in the network. In the building energy consumption prediction case, we consider the fact that energy performance of buildings is primarily affected by the heat exchange with the building outer skin and the surrounding environment. In addition, it is a common practice in building energy simulation (BES) to predict energy usage with a variable degree of accuracy. Therefore, to account for accurate building energy consumption, especially in urban environments with a lot of anthropogenic heat sources, it is necessary to consider the microclimate conditions around the building. These conditions are influenced by the immediate environment, such as surrounding buildings, hard surfaces, and trees. Moreover, deployment of sensors to monitor the microclimate information of a building can be quite challenging and therefore, not scalable. Instead of applying local weather data directly on building energy simulation (BES) tools, this work proposes a spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) based machine learning framework to predict the microclimate information based on the local weather station, which leads to better energy consumption prediction in buildings

Condition-based maintenance of wind turbine blades

The blades of offshore wind farms (OWTs) are susceptible to a wide variety of diverse sources of damage. Internal impacts are caused primarily by structure deterioration, so even though outer consequences are the consequence of harsh marine ecosystems. We examine condition-based maintenance (CBM) for a multiblade OWT system that is exposed to environmental shocks in this work. In recent years, there has been a significant rise in the number of wind turbines operating offshore that make use of CBMs. The gearbox, generator, and drive train all have their own vibration-based monitoring systems, which form most of their foundation. For the blades, drive train, tower, and foundation, a cost analysis of the various widely viable CBM systems as well as their individual prices has been done. The purpose of this article is to investigate the potential benefits that may result from using these supplementary systems in the maintenance strategy. Along with providing a theoretical foundation, this article reviews the previous research that has been conducted on CBM of OWT blades. Utilizing the data collected from condition monitoring, an artificial neural network is employed to provide predictions on the remaining life. For the purpose of assessing and forecasting the cost and efficacy of CBM, a simple tool that is based on artificial neural networks (ANN) has been developed. A CBM technique that is well-established and is based on data from condition monitoring is used to reduce cost of maintenance. This can be accomplished by reducing malfunctions, cutting down on service interruption, and reducing the number of unnecessary maintenance works. In MATLAB, an ANN is used to research both the failure replacement cost and the preventative maintenance cost. In addition to this, a technique for optimization is carried out to gain the optimal threshold values. There is a significant opportunity to save costs by improving how choices are made on maintenance to make the operations more cost-effective. In this research, a technique to optimizing CBM program for elements whose deterioration may be characterized according to the level of damage that it has sustained is presented. The strategy may be used for maintenance that is based on inspections as well as maintenance that is based on online condition monitoring systems

Forecasting wind energy for a data center

Abstract. Data centers are increasingly using renewables such as wind and solar energy. RISE’s ICE data center has already solar panels and is now studying impact of adding a wind turbine into their microgrid. In this thesis, a machine learning model was developed to forecast wind power production for the data center. Data center in Luleå has several applications to utilize wind power forecasting. Renewable energy sources are intermittent, so accurate forecasting of output power reduces a need for additional balancing of energy and reserve power in an electricity grid. Renewable energy can be reserved from market for next hour or next day to maximize its use. Forecasting from 30 min to 6 hours ahead allows job scheduling to optimize usage of renewables and to reduce power consumption. Data center may target to minimize electricity cost or maximize usage of renewables for lower greenhouse gas emissions. Smart microgrid based on artificial intelligence is the way to implement the applications. Two open data sets from India and Sweden have been used in the research. The data available supports choosing of a statistical model. Random forest regression was the model used in the research. Data from India enabled to develop a model for one wind turbine. Developed model forecasted output power well. Swedish data set is from EEM20 competition, it included total wind power production in Sweden and had to be applied to approximate production of one wind turbine in Luleå. To achieve the goal output power of Luleå price region was averaged, and location for the simulation was chosen to be near Luleå. As expected, the accuracy of forecasting with Swedish data was reasonable, but approximations done reduced it. The developed model was applied to RISE’s ICE data center. Validation has been done, but final testing will take place in RISE’s simulation environment. In general, data from northern Sweden is not openly available for wind power forecasting. In addition, any scientific articles covering the geographical area were not found while working on literature review. The study with Swedish competition data gave understanding, which variables are significant in northern Sweden and about their relative importances. Wind gust is such a variable. Using two data sets from different geographical locations proved that climate has a major impact on performance of the trained model. Thus, it is reasonable to use the trained model in locations with similar weather conditions only.Tuulienergian ennustaminen datakeskusta varten. Tiivistelmä. Datakeskukset käyttävät uusiutuvia energialähteitä yhä enemmän. Tällaisia lähteitä ovat mm. tuuli- ja aurinkoenergia. RISE:n ICE datakeskuksella Luulajassa on jo aurinkopaneelit käytössä, ja nyt tutkitaan tuulimyllyn lisäämisen vaikutusta mikroverkkoon. Tässä työssä kehitettiin koneoppimismalli tuulivoiman tuotannon ennustamiseksi datakeskusta varten. Datakeskuksella on useita sovelluksia tuulienergian ennustamisen hyödyntämiseksi. Uusiutuvat energialähteet ovat luonteeltaan vaihtelevia, joten tuotetun tehon tarkka ennustaminen vähentää ylimääräisen säätämisen ja reservitehon tarvetta sähköverkossa yleensäkin. Datakeskus voi varata uusiutuvaa energiaa markkinoilta seuraavaksi tunniksi tai päiväksi uusiutuvan energian käytön maksimoimiseksi. Ennustaminen 30 minuutista 6 tuntiin etukäteen mahdollistaa työjonon aikatauluttamisen uusiutuvien käytön optimoimiseksi ja vähentää tehonkulutusta. Datakeskus voi pyrkiä minimoimaan sähkön käytön kustannuksia, tai pienentämään kasvihuonekaasujen päästöjä käyttämällä mahdollisimman paljon uusiutuvaa energiaa. Tekoälyyn perustuva älykäs mikroverkko on tapa toteuttaa edellä mainitut sovellukset. Tutkimuksessa on käytetty kahta avointa tietoainestoa Intiasta ja Ruotsista. Saatavilla oleva data tukee tilastollisen ennustemallin valintaa. Tässä työssä käytettiin satunnaismetsämenetelmää. Intian dataa käytettiin mallin kehityksessä yhtä tuulimyllyä varten. Kehitetty malli ennusti tuotetun tehon hyvin. Ruotsalainen data perustuu EEM20-kilpailuun, jossa arvioitiin koko Ruotsin tuulivoiman tuotantoa. Sitä olikin sovellettava Luulajassa olevan yhden tuulimyllyn tuotannon arvioimiseksi. Luulajan hinta-alueen tuottama teho keskiarvoistettiin, ja ennustamista varten valittiin maantieteellinen paikka läheltä Luulajaa. Kuten oli odotettavissa, soveltamisessa tehdyt likiarvoistukset pienensivät ennustamisen tarkkuutta, jota voidaan kuitenkin pitää kohtuullisena. Kehitettyä mallia sovellettiin RISE:n ICE datakeskusta varten. Algoritmin validointi on suoritettu, mutta lopullinen testaus tehdään RISE:n simulointiympäristössä. Yleisesti ennustamiseen soveltuvaa dataa ei ole Pohjois-Ruotsista tarjolla. Tieteellisiä artikkeleita ko. maantieteelliseltä alueelta ei löytynyt kirjallisuustutkimusta tehtäessä. Tutkimus ruotsalaisella datalla toi ymmärrystä siihen, mitkä muuttujat ovat merkittäviä Pohjois-Ruotsin alueella sekä niiden suhteellisesta merkityksestä. Kahden eri maantieteellisen alueen tietoaineiston käyttö osoitti, että ilmastolla on huomattava vaikutus koulutetun mallin suorituskykyyn. Näin onkin mielekästä käyttää koulutettua mallia vain sellaisilla alueilla, joiden sääolosuhteet ovat samankaltaiset

A unified multi-step wind speed forecasting framework based on numerical weather prediction grids and wind farm monitoring data

Wind speed forecasting is the basis of wind farm operation, which provides a reference for the future operation status evaluation of wind farms. For the wind speed forecast of wind turbines in the whole wind farm, a strategy combining unified forecast and single site error correction is proposed in this paper. The unified forecast framework is composed of a unified forecast model and multiple single site error correction models, which combines the forecasted grids of numerical weather prediction (NWP) with the monitoring data of wind farms. The proposed unified forecast model is called spatiotemporal conversion deep predictive network (STC-DPN), which is composed of temporal convolution network (TCN) and 2D convolution long short-term memory network (ConvLSTM). Firstly, the NWP forecasted grids are interpolated to the fan location, and the sequence matrix is composed of the NWP data and the monitored data of each wind turbine according to the time series, which is entered into the TCN network for time sequence feature extraction. Then, the output of the TCN network is converted into a regular spatio-temporal data matrix, which is entered into the ConvLSTM network for joint learning of spatio-temporal features to obtain the wind speed sequence forecasted in the whole wind farm. Finally, an independent TCN-LSTM error correction model is added for each site. Variational modal decomposition (VMD) is used to process data series, and different processing methods are adopted in unified forecast and single site error correction. In the 96 steps forecast test of a wind farm from Jining City, China, the proposed method is superior to several baseline methods and has important practical application value

Wind turbine power output short-term forecast : a comparative study of data clustering techniques in a PSO-ANFIS model

Abstract:The emergence of new sites for wind energy exploration in South Africa requires an accurate prediction of the potential power output of a typical utility-scale wind turbine in such areas. However, careful selection of data clustering technique is very essential as it has a significant impact on the accuracy of the prediction. Adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS), both in its standalone and hybrid form has been applied in offline and online forecast in wind energy studies, however, the effect of clustering techniques has not been reported despite its significance. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of the choice of clustering algorithm on the performance of a standalone ANFIS and ANFIS optimized with particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique using a synthetic wind turbine power output data of a potential site in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. In this study a wind resource map for the Eastern Cape province was developed. Also, autoregressive ANFIS models and their hybrids with PSO were developed. Each model was evaluated based on three clustering techniques (grid partitioning (GP), subtractive clustering (SC), and fuzzy-c-means (FCM)). The gross wind power of the model wind turbine was estimated from the wind speed data collected from the potential site at 10 min data resolution using Windographer software. The standalone and hybrid models were trained and tested with 70% and 30% of the dataset respectively. The performance of each clustering technique was compared for both standalone and PSO-ANFIS models using known statistical metrics. From our findings, ANFIS standalone model clustered with SC performed best among the standalone models with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.132, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 30.94, a mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 0.077, relative mean bias error (rMBE) of 0.190 and variance accounted for (VAF) of 94.307. Also, PSO-ANFIS model clustered with SC technique performed the best among the three hybrid models with RMSE of 0.127, MAPE of 28.11, MAD of 0.078, rMBE of 0.190 and VAF of 94.311. The ANFIS-SC model recorded the lowest computational time of 30.23secs among the standalone models. However, the PSO-ANFIS-SC model recorded a computational time of 47.21secs. Based on our findings, a hybrid ANFIS model gives better forecast accuracy compared to the standalone model, though with a trade-off in the computational time. Since, the choice of clustering technique was observed to play a vital role in the forecast accuracy of standalone and hybrid models, this study recommends SC technique for ANFIS modeling at both standalone and hybrid models

Wind power forecasting of an offshore wind turbine based on high-frequency SCADA data and deep learning neural network

Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for efficient operation and maintenance (O&M) of wind power conversion systems. Offshore wind power predictions are even more challenging due to the multifaceted systems and the harsh environment in which they are operating. In some scenarios, data from Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are used for modern wind turbine power forecasting. In this study, a deep learning neural network was constructed to predict wind power based on a very high-frequency SCADA database with a sampling rate of 1-second. Input features were engineered based on the physical process of offshore wind turbines, while their linear and non-linear correlations were further investigated through Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients and the deep learning algorithm, respectively. Initially, eleven features were used in the predictive model, which are four wind speeds at different heights, three measured pitch angles of each blade, average blade pitch angle, nacelle orientation, yaw error, and ambient temperature. A comparison between different features shown that nacelle orientation, yaw error, and ambient temperature can be reduced in the deep learning model. The simulation results showed that the proposed approach can reduce the computational cost and time in wind power forecasting while retaining high accuracy

Advanced forecasting algorithms for renewable power systems

1 online resource (x, 112 pages) : illustrations (some colour), charts (some colour), graphs (some colour)Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references (pages 100-112).Wind and solar power prediction is a challenging but important area of research. The thesis you described explores various statistical models and deep learning methods to improve the accuracy of wind speed and solar radiation predictions. The use of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, long short-term memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural network (RNN) models, and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks were studied to predict future wind speed values and the performance of a photovoltaic (PV) system. The results showed that the proposed models can effectively improve the accuracy of wind speed and solar radiation prediction and that the LSTM network outperformed the MLP network in predicting solar radiation and energy for different time periods. It is important to note that the performance of the models may vary depending on the specific dataset used, the hyperparameters, and the model architecture. Therefore, it is essential to carefully tune these parameters to achieve the best possible performance. Accurately predicting the performance of a PV system at short time intervals is particularly important in the context of renewable energy sources, as it can help optimize the usage of these resources and improve overall efficiency. This research can contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable prediction models, which can lead to more efficient use of wind and solar power, reduce costs, and promote the adoption of renewable energy sources

Wind Power Prediction with Machine Learning Methods in Complex Terrain Areas

The increasing amount of intermittant wind energy sources connected to the power grid present several challenges in balancing the power network. Accurate prediction of wind power production is identified as one of the most important measures for balancing the power network while maintaining a sustainable integration of wind power in the power grid. However, the volatile nature of wind makes wind power forecasting a complicated task, and it is known that the performance of already established wind power prediction models decreases for wind farms in complex terrain sites. This thesis aims to forecast the future wind power output for five different wind farms in Northern Norway using methods from statistics and machine learning. The wind farm sites are generally characterized as complex terrain areas with good wind resources. Four different prediction models are developed for short to medium-term, multi- step prediction of wind power, ranging from traditional statistical models such as the arimax process to complex machine learning models. Additionally, two of the models are implemented both using the recursive and the direct multi- step forecasting technique. For each wind farm, the models are evaluated for an entire year and utilize multivariate input data with variables from a nwp model. The results of the experiments varied greatly across all locations. It was seen that the implemented models were outperformed by the persistence model for short forecasting horizons. However, when the forecasting horizon increased, several models showed a lower error than the persistence model