Quality assurance of rectal cancer diagnosis and treatment - phase 3 : statistical methods to benchmark centres on a set of quality indicators

In 2004, the Belgian Section for Colorectal Surgery, a section of the Royal Belgian Society for Surgery, decided to start PROCARE (PROject on CAncer of the REctum), a multidisciplinary, profession-driven and decentralized project with as main objectives the reduction of diagnostic and therapeutic variability and improvement of outcome in patients with rectal cancer. All medical specialties involved in the care of rectal cancer established a multidisciplinary steering group in 2005. They agreed to approach the stated goal by means of treatment standardization through guidelines, implementation of these guidelines and quality assurance through registration and feedback. In 2007, the PROCARE guidelines were updated (Procare Phase I, KCE report 69). In 2008, a set of 40 process and outcome quality of care indicators (QCI) was developed and organized into 8 domains of care: general, diagnosis/staging, neoadjuvant treatment, surgery, adjuvant treatment, palliative treatment, follow-up and histopathologic examination. These QCIs were tested on the prospective PROCARE database and on an administrative (claims) database (Procare Phase II, KCE report 81). Afterwards, 4 QCIs were added by the PROCARE group. Centres have been receiving feedback from the PROCARE registry on these QCIs with a description of the distribution of the unadjusted centre-averaged observed measures and the centre’s position therein. To optimize this feedback, centres should ideally be informed of their risk-adjusted outcomes and be given some benchmarks. The PROCARE Phase III study is devoted to developing a methodology to achieve this feedback

Explainable Predictive and Prescriptive Process Analytics of customizable business KPIs

Recent years have witnessed a growing adoption of machine learning techniques for business improvement across various fields. Among other emerging applications, organizations are exploiting opportunities to improve the performance of their business processes by using predictive models for runtime monitoring. Predictive analytics leverages machine learning and data analytics techniques to predict the future outcome of a process based on historical data. Therefore, the goal of predictive analytics is to identify future trends, and discover potential issues and anomalies in the process before they occur, allowing organizations to take proactive measures to prevent them from happening, optimizing the overall performance of the process. Prescriptive analytics systems go beyond purely predictive ones, by not only generating predictions but also advising the user if and how to intervene in a running process in order to improve the outcome of a process, which can be defined in various ways depending on the business goals; this can involve measuring process-specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), such as costs, execution times, or customer satisfaction, and using this data to make informed decisions about how to optimize the process. This Ph.D. thesis research work has focused on predictive and prescriptive analytics, with particular emphasis on providing predictions and recommendations that are explainable and comprehensible to process actors. In fact, while the priority remains on giving accurate predictions and recommendations, the process actors need to be provided with an explanation of the reasons why a given process execution is predicted to behave in a certain way and they need to be convinced that the recommended actions are the most suitable ones to maximize the KPI of interest; otherwise, users would not trust and follow the provided predictions and recommendations, and the predictive technology would not be adopted.Recent years have witnessed a growing adoption of machine learning techniques for business improvement across various fields. Among other emerging applications, organizations are exploiting opportunities to improve the performance of their business processes by using predictive models for runtime monitoring. Predictive analytics leverages machine learning and data analytics techniques to predict the future outcome of a process based on historical data. Therefore, the goal of predictive analytics is to identify future trends, and discover potential issues and anomalies in the process before they occur, allowing organizations to take proactive measures to prevent them from happening, optimizing the overall performance of the process. Prescriptive analytics systems go beyond purely predictive ones, by not only generating predictions but also advising the user if and how to intervene in a running process in order to improve the outcome of a process, which can be defined in various ways depending on the business goals; this can involve measuring process-specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), such as costs, execution times, or customer satisfaction, and using this data to make informed decisions about how to optimize the process. This Ph.D. thesis research work has focused on predictive and prescriptive analytics, with particular emphasis on providing predictions and recommendations that are explainable and comprehensible to process actors. In fact, while the priority remains on giving accurate predictions and recommendations, the process actors need to be provided with an explanation of the reasons why a given process execution is predicted to behave in a certain way and they need to be convinced that the recommended actions are the most suitable ones to maximize the KPI of interest; otherwise, users would not trust and follow the provided predictions and recommendations, and the predictive technology would not be adopted

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the Childhood Development Initiative's Mate-Tricks Pro-Social Behaviour After-School Programme

Mate-Tricks is an after-school programme designed to promote pro-social behaviour in Tallaght West (Dublin). Tallaght West has been designated as an area of particular social and economic disadvantage with high levels of unemployment. Mate-Tricks is a bespoke intervention that combines elements of two pro-social behaviour programmes: the Strengthening Families Program (SFP) and Coping Power Program (CPP). The programme is a one-year multi-session after-school programme comprising 59 children-only sessions, 6 parent-only sessions and 3 family sessions, with each session lasting 1½ hours.The intended outcomes of this programme are stated as follows in the Mate-Tricks manual: enhance children's pro-social development; reduce children's anti-social behaviour; develop children's confidence and self-esteem; improve children's problem-solving skills; improve child-peer interactions; develop reasoning and empathy skills; improve parenting skills; improve parent/child interaction. This evaluation reports on the pilot of this programme. Of the 21 outcomes investigated, 19 showed no significant differences between the children who attended Mate-Tricks and the control group. However, there were 2 statistically significant effects of the Mate-Tricks programme and 3 other effects that approached significance. The lack of effects and the few negative effects found in this study replicates findings in several recent studies of after-school behaviour programmes

Metalearning

This open access book as one of the fastest-growing areas of research in machine learning, metalearning studies principled methods to obtain efficient models and solutions by adapting machine learning and data mining processes. This adaptation usually exploits information from past experience on other tasks and the adaptive processes can involve machine learning approaches. As a related area to metalearning and a hot topic currently, automated machine learning (AutoML) is concerned with automating the machine learning processes. Metalearning and AutoML can help AI learn to control the application of different learning methods and acquire new solutions faster without unnecessary interventions from the user. This book offers a comprehensive and thorough introduction to almost all aspects of metalearning and AutoML, covering the basic concepts and architecture, evaluation, datasets, hyperparameter optimization, ensembles and workflows, and also how this knowledge can be used to select, combine, compose, adapt and configure both algorithms and models to yield faster and better solutions to data mining and data science problems. It can thus help developers to develop systems that can improve themselves through experience. This book is a substantial update of the first edition published in 2009. It includes 18 chapters, more than twice as much as the previous version. This enabled the authors to cover the most relevant topics in more depth and incorporate the overview of recent research in the respective area. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in the areas of machine learning, data mining, data science and artificial intelligence. ; Metalearning is the study of principled methods that exploit metaknowledge to obtain efficient models and solutions by adapting machine learning and data mining processes. While the variety of machine learning and data mining techniques now available can, in principle, provide good model solutions, a methodology is still needed to guide the search for the most appropriate model in an efficient way. Metalearning provides one such methodology that allows systems to become more effective through experience. This book discusses several approaches to obtaining knowledge concerning the performance of machine learning and data mining algorithms. It shows how this knowledge can be reused to select, combine, compose and adapt both algorithms and models to yield faster, more effective solutions to data mining problems. It can thus help developers improve their algorithms and also develop learning systems that can improve themselves. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in the areas of machine learning, data mining and artificial intelligence

What's next? : operational support for business process execution

In the last decade flexibility has become an increasingly important in the area of business process management. Information systems that support the execution of the process are required to work in a dynamic environment that imposes changing demands on the execution of the process. In academia and industry a variety of paradigms and implementations has been developed to support flexibility. While on the one hand these approaches address the industry demands in flexibility, on the other hand, they result in confronting the user with many choices between different alternatives. As a consequence, methods to support users in selecting the best alternative during execution have become essential. In this thesis we introduce a formal framework for providing support to users based on historical evidence available in the execution log of the process. This thesis focuses on support by means of (1) recommendations that provide the user an ordered list of execution alternatives based on estimated utilities and (2) predictions that provide the user general statistics for each execution alternative. Typically, estimations are not an average over all observations, but they are based on observations for "similar" situations. The main question is what similarity means in the context of business process execution. We introduce abstractions on execution traces to capture similarity between execution traces in the log. A trace abstraction considers some trace characteristics rather than the exact trace. Traces that have identical abstraction values are said to be similar. The challenge is to determine those abstractions (characteristics) that are good predictors for the parameter to be estimated in the recommendation or prediction. We analyse the dependency between values of an abstraction and the mean of the parameter to be estimated by means of regression analysis. With regression we obtain a set of abstractions that explain the parameter to be estimated. Dependencies do not only play a role in providing predictions and recommendations to instances at run-time, but they are also essential for simulating the effect of changes in the environment on the processes, both locally and globally. We use stochastic simulation models to simulate the effect of changes in the environment, in particular changed probability distribution caused by recommendations. The novelty of these models is that they include dependencies between abstraction values and simulation parameters, which are estimated from log data. We demonstrate that these models give better approximations of reality than traditional models. A framework for offering operational support has been implemented in the context of the process mining framework ProM