River flow forecasting using an integrated approach of wavelet multi-resolution analysis and computational intelligence techniques

In this research an attempt is made to develop highly accurate river flow forecasting models. Wavelet multi-resolution analysis is applied in conjunction with artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Various types and structure of computational intelligence models are developed and applied on four different rivers in Australia. Research outcomes indicate that forecasting reliability is significantly improved by applying proposed hybrid models, especially for longer lead time and peak values

River discharge simulation using variable parameter McCarthy–Muskingum and wavelet-support vector machine methods

In this study, an extended version of variable parameter McCarthy–Muskingum (VPMM) method originally proposed by Perumal and Price (J Hydrol 502:89–102, 2013) was compared with the widely used data-based model, namely support vector machine (SVM) and hybrid wavelet-support vector machine (WASVM) to simulate the hourly discharge in Neckar River wherein significant lateral flow contribution by intermediate catchment rainfall prevails during flood wave movement. The discharge data from the year 1999 to 2002 have been used in this study. The extended VPMM method has been used to simulate 9 flood events of the year 2002, and later the results were compared with SVM and WASVM models. The analysis of statistical and graphical results suggests that the extended VPMM method was able to predict the flood wave movement better than the SVM and WASVM models. A model complexity analysis was also conducted which suggests that the two parameter-based extended VPMM method has less complexity than the three parameter-based SVM and WASVM model. Further, the model selection criteria also give the highest values for VPMM in 7 out of 9 flood events. The simulation of flood events suggested that both the approaches were able to capture the underlying physics and reproduced the target value close to the observed hydrograph. However, the VPMM models are slightly more efficient and accurate, than the SVM and WASVM model which are based only on the antecedent discharge data. The study captures the current trend in the flood forecasting studies and showed the importance of both the approaches (physical and data-based modeling). The analysis of the study suggested that these approaches complement each other and can be used in accurate yet less computational intensive flood forecasting

A Comparison of Emotional Neural Network (ENN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Approach for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling

Reliable method of rainfall-runoff modeling is a prerequisite for proper management and mitigation of extreme events such as floods. The objective of this paper is to contrasts the hydrological execution of Emotional Neural Network (ENN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for modelling rainfall-runoff in the Sone Command, Bihar as this area experiences flood due to heavy rainfall. ENN is a modified version of ANN as it includes neural parameters which enhance the network learning process. Selection of inputs is a crucial task for rainfall-runoff model. This paper utilizes cross correlation analysis for the selection of potential predictors. Three sets of input data: Set 1, Set 2 and Set 3 have been prepared using weather and discharge data of 2 raingauge stations and 1 discharge station located in the command for the period 1986-2014.  Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has then been performed on the selected data sets for selection of data sets showing principal tendencies.  The data sets obtained after PCA have then been used in the model development of ENN and ANN models. Performance indices were performed for the developed model for three data sets. The results obtained from Set 2 showed that ENN with R= 0.933, R2 = 0.870, Nash Sutcliffe = 0.8689, RMSE = 276.1359 and Relative Peak Error = 0.00879 outperforms ANN in simulating the discharge. Therefore, ENN model is suggested as a better model for rainfall-runoff discharge in the Sone command, Bihar

Estimating the concentration of physico chemical parameters in hydroelectric power plant reservoir

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) defines the amazon region and adjacent areas, such as the Pantanal, as world heritage territories, since they possess unique flora and fauna and great biodiversity. Unfortunately, these regions have increasingly been suffering from anthropogenic impacts. One of the main anthropogenic impacts in the last decades has been the construction of hydroelectric power plants. As a result, dramatic altering of these ecosystems has been observed, including changes in water levels, decreased oxygenation and loss of downstream organic matter, with consequent intense land use and population influxes after the filling and operation of these reservoirs. This, in turn, leads to extreme loss of biodiversity in these areas, due to the large-scale deforestation. The fishing industry in place before construction of dams and reservoirs, for example, has become much more intense, attracting large populations in search of work, employment and income. Environmental monitoring is fundamental for reservoir management, and several studies around the world have been performed in order to evaluate the water quality of these ecosystems. The Brazilian Amazon, in particular, goes through well defined annual hydrological cycles, which are very importante since their study aids in monitoring anthropogenic environmental impacts and can lead to policy and decision making with regard to environmental management of this area. The water quality of amazon reservoirs is greatly influenced by this defined hydrological cycle, which, in turn, causes variations of microbiological, physical and chemical characteristics. Eutrophication, one of the main processes leading to water deterioration in lentic environments, is mostly caused by anthropogenic activities, such as the releases of industrial and domestic effluents into water bodies. Physico-chemical water parameters typically related to eutrophication are, among others, chlorophyll-a levels, transparency and total suspended solids, which can, thus, be used to assess the eutrophic state of water bodies. Usually, these parameters must be investigated by going out to the field and manually measuring water transparency with the use of a Secchi disk, and taking water samples to the laboratory in order to obtain chlorophyll-a and total suspended solid concentrations. These processes are time- consuming and require trained personnel. However, we have proposed other techniques to environmental monitoring studies which do not require fieldwork, such as remote sensing and computational intelligence. Simulations in different reservoirs were performed to determine a relationship between these physico-chemical parameters and the spectral response. Based on the in situ measurements, empirical models were established to relate the reflectance of the reservoir measured by the satellites. The images were calibrated and corrected atmospherically. Statistical analysis using error estimation was used to evaluate the most accurate methodology. The Neural Networks were trained by hydrological cycle, and were useful to estimate the physicalchemical parameters of the water from the reflectance of visible bands and NIR of satellite images, with better results for the period with few clouds in the regions analyzed. The present study shows the application of wavelet neural network to estimate water quality parameters using concentration of the water samples collected in the Amazon reservoir and Cefni reservoir, UK. Sattelite imagens from Landsats and Sentinel-2 were used to train the ANN by hydrological cycle. The trained ANNs demonstrated good results between observed and estimated after Atmospheric corrections in satellites images. The ANNs showed in the results are useful to estimate these concentrations using remote sensing and wavelet transform for image processing. Therefore, the techniques proposed and applied in the present study are noteworthy since they can aid in evaluating important physico-chemical parameters, which, in turn, allows for identification of possible anthropogenic impacts, being relevant in environmental management and policy decision-making processes. The tests results showed that the predicted values have good accurate. Improving efficiency to monitor water quality parameters and confirm the reliability and accuracy of the approaches proposed for monitoring water reservoirs. This thesis contributes to the evaluation of the accuracy of different methods in the estimation of physical-chemical parameters, from satellite images and artificial neural networks. For future work, the accuracy of the results can be improved by adding more satellite images and testing new neural networks with applications in new water reservoirs

Genetic Programming: Efficient Modeling Tool in Hydrology and Groundwater Management

[Extract] With the advent of computers a wide range of mathematical and numerical models have been developed with the intent of predicting or approximating parts of hyrdrologic cycle. Prior to the advent of conceptual process based models, physical hydraulic models, which are reduced scale representations of large hydraulic systems, were used commonly in water resources engineering. Fast development in the computational systems and numerical solutions of complex differential equations enabled development of conceptual models to represent physical systems. Thus, in the last two decades large number of mathematical models was developed to represent different processes in hydrological cycle

Sustainable Reservoir Management Approaches under Impacts of Climate Change - A Case Study of Mangla Reservoir, Pakistan

Reservoir sedimentation is a major issue for water resource management around the world. It has serious economic, environmental, and social consequences, such as reduced water storage capacity, increased flooding risk, decreased hydropower generation, and deteriorated water quality. Increased rainfall intensity, higher temperatures, and more extreme weather events due to climate change are expected to exacerbate the problem of reservoir sedimentation. As a result, sedimentation must be managed to ensure the long-term viability of reservoirs and their associated infrastructure. Effective reservoir sedimentation management in the face of climate change necessitates an understanding of the sedimentation process and the factors that influence it, such as land use practices, erosion, and climate. Monitoring and modelling sedimentation rates are also useful tools for forecasting future impacts and making management decisions. The goal of this research is to create long-term reservoir management strategies in the face of climate change by simulating the effects of various reservoir-operating strategies on reservoir sedimentation and sediment delta movement at Mangla Reservoir in Pakistan (the second-largest dam in the country). In order to assess the impact of the Mangla Reservoir's sedimentation and reservoir life, a framework was developed. This framework incorporates both hydrological and morphodynamic models and various soft computing models. In addition to taking climate change uncertainty into consideration, the proposed framework also incorporates sediment source, sediment delivery, and reservoir morphology changes. Furthermore, the purpose of this study is to provide a practical methodology based on the limited data available. In the first phase of this study, it was investigated how to accurately quantify the missing suspended sediment load (SSL) data in rivers by utilizing various techniques, such as sediment rating curves (SRC) and soft computing models (SCMs), including local linear regression (LLR), artificial neural networks (ANN) and wavelet-cum-ANN (WANN). Further, the Gamma and M-test were performed to select the best-input variables and appropriate data length for SCMs development. Based on an evaluation of the outcomes of all leading models for SSL estimation, it can be concluded that SCMs are more effective than SRC approaches. Additionally, the results also indicated that the WANN model was the most accurate model for reconstructing the SSL time series because it is capable of identifying the salient characteristics in a data series. The second phase of this study examined the feasibility of using four satellite precipitation datasets (SPDs) which included GPM, PERSIANN_CDR, CHIRPS, and CMORPH to predict streamflow and sediment loads (SL) within a poorly gauged mountainous catchment, by employing the SWAT hydrological model as well as SWAT coupled soft computing models (SCMs) such as artificial neural networks (SWAT-ANN), random forests (SWAT-RF), and support vector regression (SWAT-SVR). SCMs were developed using the outputs of un-calibrated SWAT hydrological models to improve the predictions. The results indicate that during the entire simulation, the GPM shows the best performance in both schemes, while PERSIAN_CDR and CHIRPS also perform well, whereas CMORPH predicts streamflow for the Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) with relatively poor performance. Among the best GPM-based models, SWAT-RF offered the best performance to simulate the entire streamflow, while SWAT-ANN excelled at simulating the SL. Hence, hydrological coupled SCMs based on SPDs could be an effective technique for simulating streamflow and SL, particularly in complex terrain where gauge network density is low or uneven. The third and last phase of this study investigated the impact of different reservoir operating strategies on Mangla reservoir sedimentation using a 1D sediment transport model. To improve the accuracy of the model, more accurate boundary conditions for flow and sediment load were incorporated into the numerical model (derived from the first and second phases of this study) so that the successive morphodynamic model could precisely predict bed level changes under given climate conditions. Further, in order to assess the long-term effect of a changing climate, a Global Climate Model (GCM) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 for the 21st century is used. The long-term modelling results showed that a gradual increase in the reservoir minimum operating level (MOL) slows down the delta movement rate and the bed level close to the dam. However, it may compromise the downstream irrigation demand during periods of high water demand. The findings may help the reservoir managers to improve the reservoir operation rules and ultimately support the objective of sustainable reservoir use for societal benefit. In summary, this study provides comprehensive insights into reservoir sedimentation phenomena and recommends an operational strategy that is both feasible and sustainable over the long term under the impact of climate change, especially in cases where a lack of data exists. Basically, it is very important to improve the accuracy of sediment load estimates, which are essential in the design and operation of reservoir structures and operating plans in response to incoming sediment loads, ensuring accurate reservoir lifespan predictions. Furthermore, the production of highly accurate streamflow forecasts, particularly when on-site data is limited, is important and can be achieved by the use of satellite-based precipitation data in conjunction with hydrological and soft computing models. Ultimately, the use of soft computing methods produces significantly improved input data for sediment load and discharge, enabling the application of one-dimensional hydro-morphodynamic numerical models to evaluate sediment dynamics and reservoir useful life under the influence of climate change at various operating conditions in a way that is adequate for evaluating sediment dynamics.:Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2:Reconstruction of Sediment Load Data in Rivers Chapter 3:Assessment of The Hydrological and Coupled Soft Computing Models, Based on Different Satellite Precipitation Datasets, To Simulate Streamflow and Sediment Load in A Mountainous Catchment Chapter 4:Simulating the Impact of Climate Change with Different Reservoir Operating Strategies on Sedimentation of the Mangla Reservoir, Northern Pakistan Chapter 5:Conclusions and Recommendation

Overløpskontroll i avløpsnett med forskjellige modelleringsteknikker og internet of things

Increased urbanization and extreme rainfall events are causing more frequent instances of sewer overflow, leading to the pollution of water resources and negative environmental, health, and fiscal impacts. At the same time, the treatment capacity of wastewater treatment plants is seriously affected. The main aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to use the Internet of Things and various modeling techniques to investigate the use of real-time control on existing sewer systems to mitigate overflow. The role of the Internet of Things is to provide continuous monitoring and real-time control of sewer systems. Data collected by the Internet of Things are also useful for model development and calibration. Models are useful for various purposes in real-time control, and they can be distinguished as those suitable for simulation and those suitable for prediction. Models that are suitable for a simulation, which describes the important phenomena of a system in a deterministic way, are useful for developing and analyzing different control strategies. Meanwhile, models suitable for prediction are usually employed to predict future system states. They use measurement information about the system and must have a high computational speed. To demonstrate how real-time control can be used to manage sewer systems, a case study was conducted for this thesis in Drammen, Norway. In this study, a hydraulic model was used as a model suitable for simulation to test the feasibility of different control strategies. Considering the recent advances in artificial intelligence and the large amount of data collected through the Internet of Things, the study also explored the possibility of using artificial intelligence as a model suitable for prediction. A summary of the results of this work is presented through five papers. Paper I demonstrates that one mainstream artificial intelligence technique, long short-term memory, can precisely predict the time series data from the Internet of Things. Indeed, the Internet of Things and long short-term memory can be powerful tools for sewer system managers or engineers, who can take advantage of real-time data and predictions to improve decision-making. In Paper II, a hydraulic model and artificial intelligence are used to investigate an optimal in-line storage control strategy that uses the temporal storage volumes in pipes to reduce overflow. Simulation results indicate that during heavy rainfall events, the response behavior of the sewer system differs with respect to location. Overflows at a wastewater treatment plant under different control scenarios were simulated and compared. The results from the hydraulic model show that overflows were reduced dramatically through the intentional control of pipes with in-line storage capacity. To determine available in-line storage capacity, recurrent neural networks were employed to predict the upcoming flow coming into the pipes that were to be controlled. Paper III and Paper IV describe a novel inter-catchment wastewater transfer solution. The inter-catchment wastewater transfer method aims at redistributing spatially mismatched sewer flows by transferring wastewater from a wastewater treatment plant to its neighboring catchment. In Paper III, the hydraulic behaviors of the sewer system under different control scenarios are assessed using the hydraulic model. Based on the simulations, inter-catchment wastewater transfer could efficiently reduce total overflow from a sewer system and wastewater treatment plant. Artificial intelligence was used to predict inflow to the wastewater treatment plant to improve inter-catchment wastewater transfer functioning. The results from Paper IV indicate that inter-catchment wastewater transfer might result in an extra burden for a pump station. To enhance the operation of the pump station, long short-term memory was employed to provide multi-step-ahead water level predictions. Paper V proposes a DeepCSO model based on large and high-resolution sensors and multi-task learning techniques. Experiments demonstrated that the multi-task approach is generally better than single-task approaches. Furthermore, the gated recurrent unit and long short-term memory-based multi-task learning models are especially suitable for capturing the temporal and spatial evolution of combined sewer overflow events and are superior to other methods. The DeepCSO model could help guide the real-time operation of sewer systems at a citywide level.publishedVersio

Enhancing Operation of a Sewage Pumping Station for Inter Catchment Wastewater Transfer by Using Deep Learning and Hydraulic Model

This paper presents a novel Inter Catchment Wastewater Transfer (ICWT) method for mitigating sewer overflow. The ICWT aims at balancing the spatial mismatch of sewer flow and treatment capacity of Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP), through collaborative operation of sewer system facilities. Using a hydraulic model, the effectiveness of ICWT is investigated in a sewer system in Drammen, Norway. Concerning the whole system performance, we found that the S{\o}ren Lemmich pump station plays a vital role in the ICWT framework. To enhance the operation of this pump station, it is imperative to construct a multi-step ahead water level prediction model. Hence, one of the most promising artificial intelligence techniques, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), is employed to undertake this task. Experiments demonstrated that LSTM is superior to Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Feed-forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR)

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

Modeling and analysis of actual evapotranspiration using data driven and wavelet techniques

Large-scale mining practices have disturbed many natural watersheds in northern Alberta, Canada. To restore disturbed landscapes and ecosystems’ functions, reconstruction strategies have been adopted with the aim of establishing sustainable reclaimed lands. The success of the reconstruction process depends on the design of reconstruction strategies, which can be optimized by improving the understanding of the controlling hydrological processes in the reconstructed watersheds. Evapotranspiration is one of the important components of the hydrological cycle; its estimation and analysis are crucial for better assessment of the reconstructed landscape hydrology, and for more efficient design. The complexity of the evapotranspiration process and its variability in time and space has imposed some limitations on previously developed evapotranspiration estimation models. The vast majority of the available models estimate the rate of potential evapotranspiration, which occurs under unlimited water supply condition. However, the rate of actual evapotranspiration (AET) depends on the available soil moisture, which makes its physical modeling more complicated than the potential evapotranspiration. The main objective of this study is to estimate and analyze the AET process in a reconstructed landscape. Data driven techniques can model the process without having a complete understanding of its physics. In this study, three data driven models; genetic programming (GP), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and multilinear regression (MLR), were developed and compared for estimating the hourly eddy covariance (EC)-measured AET using meteorological variables. The AET was modeled as a function of five meteorological variables: net radiation (Rn), ground temperature (Tg), air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (Ws) in a reconstructed landscape located in northern Alberta, Canada. Several ANN models were evaluated using two training algorithms of Levenberg-Marquardt and Bayesian regularization. The GP technique was employed to generate mathematical equations correlating AET to the five meteorological variables. Furthermore, the available data were statistically analyzed to obtain MLR models and to identify the meteorological variables that have significant effect on the evapotranspiration process. The utility of the investigated data driven models was also compared with that of HYDRUS-1D model, which is a physically based model that makes use of conventional Penman-Monteith (PM) method for the prediction of AET. HYDRUS-1D model was examined for estimating AET using meteorological variables, leaf area index, and soil moisture information. Furthermore, Wavelet analysis (WA), as a multiresolution signal processing tool, was examined to improve the understanding of the available time series temporal variations, through identifying the significant cyclic features, and to explore the possible correlation between AET and the meteorological signals. WA was used with the purpose of input determination of AET models, a priori. The results of this study indicated that all three proposed data driven models were able to approximate the AET reasonably well; however, GP and MLR models had better generalization ability than the ANN model. GP models demonstrated that the complex process of hourly AET can be efficiently modeled as simple semi-linear functions of few meteorological variables. The results of HYDRUS-1D model exhibited that a physically based model, such as HYDRUS-1D, might perform on par or even inferior to the data driven models in terms of the overall prediction accuracy. The developed equation-based models; GP and MLR, revealed the larger contribution of net radiation and ground temperature, compared to other variables, to the estimation of AET. It was also found that the interaction effects of meteorological variables are important for the AET modeling. The results of wavelet analysis demonstrated the presence of both small-scale (2 to 8 hours) and larger-scale (e.g. diurnal) cyclic features in most of the investigated time series. Larger-scale cyclic features were found to be the dominant source of temporal variations in the AET and most of the meteorological variables. The results of cross wavelet analysis indicated that the cause and effect relationship between AET and the meteorological variables might vary based on the time-scale of variation under consideration. At small time-scales, significant linear correlations were observed between AET and Rn, RH, and Ws time series, while at larger time-scales significant linear correlations were observed between AET and Rn, RH, Tg, and Ta time series