Hybridation of Bayesian networks and evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective optimization in an integrated product design and project management context

A better integration of preliminary product design and project management processes at early steps of system design is nowadays a key industrial issue. Therefore, the aim is to make firms evolve from classical sequential approach (first product design the project design and management) to new integrated approaches. In this paper, a model for integrated product/project optimization is first proposed which allows taking into account simultaneously decisions coming from the product and project managers. However, the resulting model has an important underlying complexity, and a multi-objective optimization technique is required to provide managers with appropriate scenarios in a reasonable amount of time. The proposed approach is based on an original evolutionary algorithm called evolutionary algorithm oriented by knowledge (EAOK). This algorithm is based on the interaction between an adapted evolutionary algorithm and a model of knowledge (MoK) used for giving relevant orientations during the search process. The evolutionary operators of the EA are modified in order to take into account these orientations. The MoK is based on the Bayesian Network formalism and is built both from expert knowledge and from individuals generated by the EA. A learning process permits to update probabilities of the BN from a set of selected individuals. At each cycle of the EA, probabilities contained into the MoK are used to give some bias to the new evolutionary operators. This method ensures both a faster and effective optimization, but it also provides the decision maker with a graphic and interactive model of knowledge linked to the studied project. An experimental platform has been developed to experiment the algorithm and a large campaign of tests permits to compare different strategies as well as the benefits of this novel approach in comparison with a classical EA

Economic and environmental impacts of the energy source for the utility production system in the HDA process

The well-known benchmark process for hydrodealkylation of toluene (HDA) to produce benzene is revisited in a multi-objective approach for identifying environmentally friendly and cost-effective operation solutions. The paper begins with the presentation of the numerical tools used in this work, i.e., a multi-objective genetic algorithm and a Multiple Choice Decision Making procedure. Then, two studies related to the energy source involved in the utility production system (UPS), either fuel oil or natural gas, of the HDA process are carried out. In each case, a multi-objective optimization problem based on the minimization of the total annual cost of the process and of five environmental burdens, that are Global Warming Potential, Acidification Potential, Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential, Human Toxicity Potential and Eutrophication Potential, is solved and the best solution is identified by use of Multiple Choice Decision Making procedures. An assessment of the respective contribution of the HDA process and the UPS towards environmental impacts on the one hand, and of the environmental impacts generated by the main equipment items of the HDA process on the other hand is then performed to compare both solutions. This ‘‘gate-to-gate’’ environmental study is then enlarged by implementing a ‘‘cradle-togate’’ Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), for accounting of emission inventory and extraction. The use of a natural gas turbine, less economically efficient, turns out to be a more attractive alternative to meet the societal expectations concerning environment preservation and sustainable development

Population-based algorithms for improved history matching and uncertainty quantification of Petroleum reservoirs

In modern field management practices, there are two important steps that shed light on a multimillion dollar investment. The first step is history matching where the simulation model is calibrated to reproduce the historical observations from the field. In this inverse problem, different geological and petrophysical properties may provide equally good history matches. Such diverse models are likely to show different production behaviors in future. This ties the history matching with the second step, uncertainty quantification of predictions. Multiple history matched models are essential for a realistic uncertainty estimate of the future field behavior. These two steps facilitate decision making and have a direct impact on technical and financial performance of oil and gas companies. Population-based optimization algorithms have been recently enjoyed growing popularity for solving engineering problems. Population-based systems work with a group of individuals that cooperate and communicate to accomplish a task that is normally beyond the capabilities of each individual. These individuals are deployed with the aim to solve the problem with maximum efficiency. This thesis introduces the application of two novel population-based algorithms for history matching and uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models. Ant colony optimization and differential evolution algorithms are used to search the space of parameters to find multiple history matched models and, using a Bayesian framework, the posterior probability of the models are evaluated for prediction of reservoir performance. It is demonstrated that by bringing latest developments in computer science such as ant colony, differential evolution and multiobjective optimization, we can improve the history matching and uncertainty quantification frameworks. This thesis provides insights into performance of these algorithms in history matching and prediction and develops an understanding of their tuning parameters. The research also brings a comparative study of these methods with a benchmark technique called Neighbourhood Algorithms. This comparison reveals the superiority of the proposed methodologies in various areas such as computational efficiency and match quality

How effective and efficient are multiobjective evolutionary algorithms at hydrologic model calibration?

International audienceThis study provides a comprehensive assessment of state-of-the-art evolutionary multiobjective optimization (EMO) tools' relative effectiveness in calibrating hydrologic models. The relative computational efficiency, accuracy, and ease-of-use of the following EMO algorithms are tested: Epsilon Dominance Nondominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm-II (?-NSGAII), the Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (MOSCEM-UA), and the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2). This study uses three test cases to compare the algorithms' performances: (1) a standardized test function suite from the computer science literature, (2) a benchmark hydrologic calibration test case for the Leaf River near Collins, Mississippi, and (3) a computationally intensive integrated surface-subsurface model application in the Shale Hills watershed in Pennsylvania. One challenge and contribution of this work is the development of a methodology for comprehensively comparing EMO algorithms that have different search operators and randomization techniques. Overall, SPEA2 attained competitive to superior results for most of the problems tested in this study. The primary strengths of the SPEA2 algorithm lie in its search reliability and its diversity preservation operator. The biggest challenge in maximizing the performance of SPEA2 lies in specifying an effective archive size without a priori knowledge of the Pareto set. In practice, this would require significant trial-and-error analysis, which is problematic for more complex, computationally intensive calibration applications. ?-NSGAII appears to be superior to MOSCEM-UA and competitive with SPEA2 for hydrologic model calibration. ?-NSGAII's primary strength lies in its ease-of-use due to its dynamic population sizing and archiving which lead to rapid convergence to very high quality solutions with minimal user input. MOSCEM-UA is best suited for hydrologic model calibration applications that have small parameter sets and small model evaluation times. In general, it would be expected that MOSCEM-UA's performance would be met or exceeded by either SPEA2 or ?-NSGAII

Optimal design for a NEO tracking spacecraft formation

The following paper presents the design and methodology for developing an optimal set of spacecraft orbits for a NEO tracking mission. The spacecraft is designed to fly in close formation with the asteroid, avoiding the nonlinear gravity field produced by the asteroid. A periodic orbit is developed, and the initial conditions are optimized by use of a global optimizer for constrained nonlinear problems. The asteroid Apophis (NEO 2004 MN4) was used as the case study due the potential impact with Earth in 2036, and the need for more accurate ephemerides

Improved sampling of the pareto-front in multiobjective genetic optimizations by steady-state evolution: a Pareto converging genetic algorithm

Previous work on multiobjective genetic algorithms has been focused on preventing genetic drift and the issue of convergence has been given little attention. In this paper, we present a simple steady-state strategy, Pareto Converging Genetic Algorithm (PCGA), which naturally samples the solution space and ensures population advancement towards the Pareto-front. PCGA eliminates the need for sharing/niching and thus minimizes heuristically chosen parameters and procedures. A systematic approach based on histograms of rank is introduced for assessing convergence to the Pareto-front, which, by definition, is unknown in most real search problems. We argue that there is always a certain inheritance of genetic material belonging to a population, and there is unlikely to be any significant gain beyond some point; a stopping criterion where terminating the computation is suggested. For further encouraging diversity and competition, a nonmigrating island model may optionally be used; this approach is particularly suited to many difficult (real-world) problems, which have a tendency to get stuck at (unknown) local minima. Results on three benchmark problems are presented and compared with those of earlier approaches. PCGA is found to produce diverse sampling of the Pareto-front without niching and with significantly less computational effort

Multi-Objective Evolutionary Neural Network to Predict Graduation Success at the United States Military Academy

This paper presents an evolutionary neural network approach to classify student graduation status based upon selected academic, demographic, and other indicators. A pareto-based, multi-objective evolutionary algorithm utilizing the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2) fitness evaluation scheme simultaneously evolves connection weights and identifies the neural network topology using network complexity and classification accuracy as objective functions. A combined vector-matrix representation scheme and differential evolution recombination operators are employed. The model is trained, tested, and validated using 5100 student samples with data compiled from admissions records and institutional research databases. The inputs to the evolutionary neural network model are used to classify students as: graduates, late graduates, or non-graduates. Results of the hybrid method show higher mean classification rates (88%) than the current methodology (80%) with a potential savings of $130M. Additionally, the proposed method is more efficient in that a less complex neural network topology is identified by the algorithm

SPEA2-based safety system multi-objective optimization

Safety systems are designed to prevent the occurrence of certain conditions and their future development into a hazardous situation. The consequence of the failure of a safety system of a potentially hazardous industrial system or process varies from minor inconvenience and cost to personal injury, significant economic loss and death. To minimise the likelihood of a hazardous situation, safety systems must be designed to maximise their availability. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to propose an effective safety system design optimization scheme. A multi-objective genetic algorithm has been adopted, where the criteria catered for includes unavailability, cost, spurious trip and maintenance down time. Analyses of individual system designs are carried out using the latest advantages of the fault tree analysis technique and the binary decision diagram approach (BDD). The improved strength Pareto evolutionary approach (SPEA2) is chosen to perform the system optimization resulting in the final design specifications. The practicality of the developed approach is demonstrated initially through application to a High Integrity Protection System (HIPS) and subsequently to test scalability using the more complex Firewater Deluge System (FDS). Computer code has been developed to carry out the analysis. The results for both systems are compared to those using a single objective optimization approach (GASSOP) and exhaustive search. The overall conclusions show a number of benefits of the SPEA2 based technique application to the safety system design optimization. It is common for safety systems to feature dependency relationships between its components. To enable the use of the fault tree analysis technique and the BDD approach for such systems, the Markov method is incorporated into the optimization process. The main types of dependency which can exist between the safety system component failures are identified. The Markov model generation algorithms are suggested for each type of dependency. The modified optimization tool is tested on the HIPS and FDS. Results comparison shows the benefit of using the modified technique for safety system optimization. Finally the effectiveness and application to general safety systems is discussed