Working Paper 73 - Economic and Political Causes of Civil Wars in Africa: Some Econometric Results

In this paper, we investigated whether civil wars in Africa have economic andpolitical causes. The model is based on the Collier-Hoeffler “greed” and “grievance”theory in which rebels will conduct a civil war for “loot-seeking” and “justiceseeking”reasons. Using logit models the propositions were tested empirically. Inparticular, six variables, GDP per capita growth rate in the preceding period, theamount of natural resources (proxied by primary commodity exports-GDP ratio),peace duration, democracy, social fractionalisation, and population size aresignificant and strong determinants of the onset of civil wars in Africa. The policyimplication is the combination of economic diversification, poverty and populationreduction, and political reforms so as to prevent conflict situations in Africancountries.

Civil War and Foreign Influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Developing Diplomats: Comparing Form and Culture Across Diplomatic Services, PRP 194

This study is a detailed and focused effort to broaden how we understand and conceptualize the recruitment, training, and development of professional diplomats in the twenty-first century. The goal is not to criticize processes in different countries, but to create a common foundation for comparing, learning, and even integrating training and career development models across nations.Public Affair

International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict

15 páginas, 3 figuras, 3 tablas.Recent research on civil wars finds that the end of the Cold War had no impact on internal conflict. By disaggregating civil wars on the basis of the ways in which civil wars are fought (the technology of rebellion: irregular, conventional, and symmetric non-conventional), we reach a different conclusion: we identify a massive decline of irregular wars or insurgencies following the end of the Cold War, something that amounts to a radical transformation of civil war. This decline is striking and very robust to multivariate analysis. Our theoretical account highlights the effect of shifting superpower support for both states and rebels on the residual capacity of states; it brings the international system into the study of internal conflict, underscores the relevance of warfare for the study of civil wars, and demonstrates that rather than being a universal technology of rebellion, the predominance of insurgency is a historically contingent political phenomenon linked to the structural dynamics of the Cold War

From Failure of Pacification to the Accelerating Arms Race to Space 2.0: The Future Space Order

The topic of this thesis is the failure of international regulation regarding the militarization and weaponization of outer space and celestial bodies, the reasons behind it, and the consequences that have their own impact on the diverse forms of competition between states to conquer space and thus determine global power balance both in space and on Earth. The purpose of the research is to improve the general awareness of people about this constantly accelerating phenomenon, but also specifically to improve the understanding of politicians and legal scholars regarding the issues discussed in the study. The weaponization and militarization of space and celestial bodies have significant implications, including the formation of space debris and the grey zone activities. The theoretical basis for the research is legal realism, especially the analytical post-positivist legal research, which is carried out through the lens of critical legal theory. The research methods used include Jorge Esquirol's methods of "gaps, conflicts, and ambiguities," as well as his "blind spots" and "unintended consequences" research methods. In addition, the methods include legal-dogmatic de lege lata and de lege ferenda type research, as well as law and history research methods that involve research, comparison, and analysis related to outdated and incomplete international space legislation. The results of this research show that international space legislation is (intentionally) incomplete and outdated and that the formation of the geopolitical power structure in space is influenced by many factors beyond just political and military interests, such as commercial, academic, and legal interests. However, because of the current international tensions, the competition for control of space is likely to intensify due to military, political, and commercial interests, and hope for peaceful use of outer space and celestial bodies and the ideals of the original space treaties will most probably have to give way

Terrorism in the Middle East: Implications on Egyptian Travel and Tourism

This paper attempts to shed the light on challenging issues affecting travel and tourism industry especially in the Middle East such as political, socio-economic and security instability. Due to its geopolitical and historical importance, the paper focuses on the situation in Egypt as a descriptive case study. The methodology relies on historical review and impact assessment to understand the roots and extended branches of instability in the Middle East that led to the Arab Spring, by focusing on the Egyptian case in the last half century. The assessment explains the negative effect of Western and Egyptian policy on extending the contemporary Middle East crisis by using militarization over sustainability. The assessment not only shows the consequences and risks for the local population and visitors, but also suggests potential corrective actions

The nature of the British soldier : warrior or weapons platform a philosophical framework

This thesis is an examination of how the nature of the British soldier is constructed/imagined in contemporary British society if a spectrum of meaning is imagined that posits a warrior existing at one extreme and a weapons platform at the other. Located within a philosophical setting and indebted to Charles Taylor’s modern social imaginaries, a number of sub-questions function as the mechanism used to explore the thesis question in the six research chapters which are: 2, Identity and Narrative; 3, Being and Doing; 4, Clausewitz, Trinitarian War and New Wars; 5, Selected Societal Factors (Death, Risk, and Post-heroicand Feminised Society); 6, The Future Nature of Conflict; and 7, Future Technology. This thesis provides a basis by which to evaluate the cultural, practical, philosophical and intellectual pressures affecting how the British soldier is envisaged in the UK social imaginary. It also offers a functional framework to understand those roles British society is prepared to tolerate and validate when deploying and utilising the generic soldier. The main conclusions of the research chapters are contained in the following six propositions: 1. The identity of the warrior requires a narrative of war(fare) validated by the society with whom he/she is in relationship. The identity of the soldier does not necessarily require a narrative of war. 2. The distinction between the warrior and the soldier is best framed in the language of ‘being’ and ‘doing’. For the warrior their ‘being’ is intuited in combat; whereas the soldier requires a narrative that validates the required/expected output. 3. New wars are non-Clausewitzian. Any Western narrative will suffer narrative deflation in the soldier’s daily experience in non-Western operational settings. 4. Post-modern, risk averse, post-heroic societies will struggle to generate a nonapocalyptic narrative capable of tolerating significant casualty numbers. 5. The question of intervention in a non-Western, non-permissive operational setting will examine the depth of liberal values in Western societies. 6. Though pragmatic, the development of robotic weapons stands in contradiction to the authenticity of the warrior and robs the West of the vitality of its liberal values

Water Security in the Middle East

Water Security in the Middle East argues that, while conflicts over transboundary water systems in the Middle East do occur, they tend not to be violent nor are they the primary cause of a war in this region. The contributors in this collection of essays place water disputes in larger political, historical and scientific contexts and discuss how the humanities and social sciences contribute towards this understanding. The authors contend that international sharing of scientific and technological advances can significantly increase access to water and improve water quality. While scientific advances can and should increase adaptability to changing environmental conditions, especially climate change, national institutional reform and the strengthening of joint commissions are vital. The contributors indicate ways in which cooperation can move from simple coordination to sophisticated, adaptive and equitable modes of water management