Value of river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling

his paper investigates the value of observed river discharge data for global-scale hydrological modeling of a number of flow characteristics that are required for assessing water resources, flood risk and habitat alteration of aqueous ecosystems. An improved version of WGHM (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model) was tuned in a way that simulated and observed long-term average river discharges at each station become equal, using either the 724-station dataset (V1) against which former model versions were tuned or a new dataset (V2) of 1235 stations and often longer time series. WGHM is tuned by adjusting one model parameter (γ) that affects runoff generation from land areas, and, where necessary, by applying one or two correction factors, which correct the total runoff in a sub-basin (areal correction factor) or the discharge at the station (station correction factor). The study results are as follows. (1) Comparing V2 to V1, the global land area covered by tuning basins increases by 5%, while the area where the model can be tuned by only adjusting γ increases by 8% (546 vs. 384 stations). However, the area where a station correction factor (and not only an areal correction factor) has to be applied more than doubles (389 vs. 93 basins), which is a strong drawback as use of a station correction factor makes discharge discontinuous at the gauge and inconsistent with runoff in the basin. (2) The value of additional discharge information for representing the spatial distribution of long-term average discharge (and thus renewable water resources) with WGHM is high, particularly for river basins outside of the V1 tuning area and for basins where the average sub-basin area has decreased by at least 50% in V2 as compared to V1. For these basins, simulated long-term average discharge would differ from the observed one by a factor of, on average, 1.8 and 1.3, respectively, if the additional discharge information were not used for tuning. The value tends to be higher in semi-arid and snow-dominated regions where hydrological models are less reliable than in humid areas. The deviation of the other simulated flow characteristics (e.g. low flow, inter-annual variability and seasonality) from the observed values also decreases significantly, but this is mainly due to the better representation of average discharge but not of variability. (3) The optimal sub-basin size for tuning depends on the modeling purpose. On the one hand, small basins between 9000 and 20 000 km2 show a much stronger improvement in model performance due to tuning than the larger basins, which is related to the lower model performance (with and without tuning), with basins over 60 000 km2 performing best. On the other hand, tuning of small basins decreases model consistency, as almost half of them require a station correction factor

Global-scale estimation of diffuse groundwater recharge : model tuning to local data for semi-arid and arid regions and assessment of climate change impact

Groundwater recharge is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate, in a spatially resolved way, global-scale groundwater recharge. In this report, improved model estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge at the global-scale, with a spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, are presented. They are based on calculations of the global hydrological model WGHM (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model) which, for semi-arid and arid areas of the globe, was tuned against independent point estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge. This has led to a decrease of estimated groundwater recharge under semi-arid and arid conditions as compared to the model results before tuning, and the new estimates are more similar to country level data on groundwater recharge. Using the improved model, the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge was simulated, applying two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios as interpreted by two different climate models.Die Höhe der Grundwasserneubildung ist oft limitierend für die nachhaltige Nutzung von Grundwasserressourcen. Um das Wassermanagement in der globalisierten Welt zu unterstützen ist es notwendig, die Grundwasserneubildung räumlich differenziert abzuschätzen. In diesem Forschungsbericht werden Modellierungsergebnisse der Grundwasserneubildung in einer räumlichen Auflösung von 0.5° x 0.5° auf globaler Skala vorgestellt. Die Ergebnisse basieren auf Berechnungen des globalen hydrologischen Modells WGHM (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model), dessen Ergebnisse für semi-aride und aride Gebiete durch Anpassung an unabhängige Punktmessungen verbessert wurden. Diese Anpassung führte zu einer Verringerung der Grundwasserneubildung. Die Unterschiede der Modellergebnisse zu Schätzungen der Grundwasserneubildung auf dem Länderniveau haben sich durch diesen Ansatz verringert. Mittels des verbesserten Modells wurde der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Grundwasserneubildung bei Verwendung von zwei unterschiedlichen Treibhausgasszenarien und zwei unterschiedlichen Klimaszenarien quantifiziert

Global-scale analysis of satellite-derived time series of naturally inundated areas as a basis for floodplain modeling

Floodplains play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle and are very important for biodiversity. Therefore, an improved representation of the dynamics of floodplain water flows and storage in global hydrological and land surface models is required. To support model validation, we combined monthly time series of satellite-derived inundation areas (Papa et al., 2010) with data on irrigated rice areas (Portmann et al., 2010). In this way, we obtained global-scale time series of naturally inundated areas (NIA), with monthly values of inundation extent during 1993–2004 and a spatial resolution of 0.5°. For most grid cells (0.5°×0.5°), the mean annual maximum of NIA agrees well with the static open water extent of the Global Lakes and Wetlands database (GLWD) (Lehner and Döll, 2004), but in 16% of the cells NIA is larger than GLWD. In some regions, like Northwestern Europe, NIA clearly overestimates inundated areas, probably because of confounding very wet soils with inundated areas. In other areas, such as South Asia, it is likely that NIA can help to enhance GLWD. NIA data will be very useful for developing and validating a floodplain modeling algorithm for the global hydrological model WGHM. For example, we found that monthly NIAs correlate with observed river discharges

Simulating river flow velocity on global scale

Flow velocity in rivers has a major impact on residence time of water and thus on high and low water as well as on water quality. For global scale hydrological modeling only very limited information is available for simulating flow velocity. Based on the Manning-Strickler equation, a simple algorithm to model temporally and spatially variable flow velocity was developed with the objective of improving flow routing in the global hydrological model of Water- GAP. An extensive data set of flow velocity measurements in US rivers was used to test and to validate the algorithm before integrating it into WaterGAP. In this test, flow velocity was calculated based on measured discharge and compared to measured velocity. Results show that flow velocity can be modeled satisfactorily at selected river cross sections. It turned out that it is quite sensitive to river roughness, and the results can be optimized by tuning this parameter. After the validation of the approach, the tested flow velocity algorithm has been implemented into the WaterGAP model. A final validation of its effects on the model results is currently performed

Impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems: a global-scale analysis of ecologically relevant river flow alterations

River flow regimes, including long-term average flows, seasonality, low flows, high flows and other types of flow variability, play an important role for freshwater ecosystems. Thus, climate change affects freshwater ecosystems not only by increased temperatures but also by altered river flow regimes. However, with one exception, transferable quantitative relations between flow alterations and ecosystem responses have not yet been derived. While discharge decreases are generally considered to be detrimental for ecosystems, the effect of future discharge increases is unclear. As a first step towards a global-scale analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems, we quantified the impact of climate change on five ecologically relevant river flow indicators, using the global water model WaterGAP 2.1g to simulate monthly time series of river discharge with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees. Four climate change scenarios based on two global climate modelsand two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were evaluated. We compared the impact of climate change by the 2050s to the impact of water withdrawals and dams on natural flow regimes that had occurred by 2002. Climate change was computed to alter seasonal flow regimes significantly (i.e. by more than 10%) on 90% of the global land area (excluding Greenland and Antarctica), as compared to only one quarter of the land area that had suffered from significant seasonal flow regime alterations due to dams and water withdrawals. Due to climate change, the timing of the maximum mean monthly river discharge will be shifted by at least one month on one third on the global land area, more often towards earlier months (mainly due to earlier snowmelt). Dams and withdrawals had caused comparable shifts on less than 5% of the land area only. Long-term average annual river discharge is predicted to significantly increase on one half of the land area, and to significantly decrease on one quarter. Dams and withdrawals had led to significant decreases on one sixth of the land area, and nowhere to increases. Thus, by the 2050s, climate change will have impacted ecologically relevant river flow characteristics much more strongly than dams and water withdrawals have up to now. The only exception refers to the decrease of the statistical low flow Q90, with significant decreases both by past water withdrawals and future climate change on one quarter of the land area. Considering long-term average river discharge, only a few regions, including Spain, Italy, Iraq, Southern India, Western China, the Australian Murray Darling Basin and the High Plains Aquifer in the USA, all of them with extensive irrigation, are expected to be less affected by climate change than by past anthropogenic flow alterations. In some of these regions, climate change will exacerbate the discharge reduction. Emissions scenario B2 leads to only slightly reduced alterations of river flow regimes as compared to scenario A2 even though emissions are much smaller. The differences in alterations resulting from the two applied climate models are larger than those resulting from the two emissions scenarios. Based on general knowledge about ecosystem responses to flow alterations and data related to flow alterations by dams and water withdrawals, we expect that the computed climate change induced river flow alterations will impact freshwater ecosystems more strongly than past anthropogenic alterations

Impact of Water Withdrawals from Groundwater and Surface Water on Continental Water Storage Variations

Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 cubic km/yr during 1998-2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 cubic km/yr of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/yr of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE

On the suitability of the 4° × 4° GRACE mascon solutions for remote sensing Australian hydrology

Hydrological monitoring is essential for meaningful water-management policies and actions, especially where water resources are scarce and/or dwindling, as is the case in Australia. In this paper, we investigate the regional 4° × 4° mascon (mass concentration) GRACE solutions for Australia provided by GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA) for their suitability in monitoring Australian hydrology, with a particular focus on the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). Using principal component analysis (PCA) and multi-linear regression analysis (MLRA), the main components of spatial and temporal variability in the mascon solutions are analysed over the whole Australian continent and the MDB. The results are compared to those from global solutions provided by CSR (Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin, USA) and CNES/GRGS (Centre National d'Études Spatiales/Groupe de Recherche de Geodesie Spatiale, France) and validated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), water storage changes predicted by the WaterGap Global Hydrological Model (WGHM) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and ground-truth (river-gauge) observations.For the challenging Australian case with generally weak hydrological signals, the mascon solutions provide similar results to those from the global solutions, with the advantage of not requiring additional filtering (destriping and smoothing) as, for example, is necessary for the CSR solutions. A further advantage of the mascon solutions is that they offer a higher temporal resolution (i.e., 10 days) compared to approximately monthly CSR solutions. Examining equivalent water volume (EWV) time series for the MDB shows a good cross-correlation (generally > 0.7) among the GRACE solutions when considering the whole basin, although lower (generally 0.6), with all time series appearing to visually follow the general behaviour of the river-gauge data, although the cross-correlations are relatively low (between 0.3 and 0.6).Research Highlights ► Mascon provides equivalent results as global CSR & CNES/GRGS solutions. ► All examined GRACE releases reveal seasonal & tropical north signals. ► GRACE, modelled hydrology & precipitation show similar behaviour Australia wide. ► GRACE solutions generally follow river gauge data

Independent patterns of water mass anomalies over Australia from satellite data and models.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products allow the quantification of total water storage (TWS) changes at global to regional scales. However, the quantity measured by GRACE represents mass signals integrated over vertical columns, requiring their separation into their original sources. Such a separation is vital for Australia, for which GRACE estimates are affected by leakage from the surrounding oceans. The independent component analysis (ICA) method that uses higher-order statistics, is implemented here to separate GRACE-derived water storage signals over the Australian continent from its surrounding oceans, covering from October 2002 to May 2011. The performance of ICA applied to GRACE is then compared to the ICA of WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) and the ICA of the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. To study the influence of rainfall variability on the derived independent patterns, use is made of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set, from January 2000 to May 2011. Implementing ICA on GRACE-TWS showed a remarkable improvement in separating the continental hydrological signals from the surrounding oceanic anomalies, which was not achievable using a conventional principle component analysis. Reconstructing the continental TWS changes using only those independent components of GRACE that were located over the continent showed a high correlation with WGHM-TWS and AWRA-TWS. Mass concentrations over the oceans and particularly S2 semi-diurnal aliased pattern were separated as independent modes.Correlation analysis between the independent components of GRACE and climate teleconnections showed that the mass anomalies over the northern ocean, Gulf of Carpentaria and north-eastern parts of Australia were significantly correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, while those over south and south-eastern parts of Australia were mainly linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole

Assimilation des données GRACE dans le modèle MESH pour l’amélioration de l'estimation de l'équivalent en eau de la neige

Abstract: Water storage changes over space and time play a major rule in the Earth’s climate system through the exchange of water and energy fluxes among the Earth’s water storage compartments and between atmosphere, continents, and oceans. In many parts of northern-latitude areas spring meltwater controls the availability of freshwater resources. With respect to terrestrial hydrologic process, snow water equivalent (SWE) is the most critical snow characteristic to hydrologists and water resource managers. The first objective of this study examined the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storages and their linkages with SWE variabilities over Canada. Terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM), and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) were employed. SWE anomaly (SWEA) products were provided by the Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research version 2 (GlobSnow2), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer‐Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), and Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). The grid cell (1°×1°) and basin-averaged analyses were applied to find any possible relationship between TWSA and SWEA over the Canadian territory, from December 2002 to March 2011. Results showed that GRACE versus CMC provided the highest percentage of significant positive correlation (62.4% of the 1128 grid cells), with an average significant positive correlation coefficient of 0.5, and a maximum of 0.9. In western Canada, GRACE correlated better with multiple SWE data sets than GLDAS. Yet, over eastern Canada, mainly in the northern Québec area (~ 55ºN), GRACE provided weak or insignificant correlations with all snow products, while GLDAS appeared to be significantly correlated. For the TWSA-SWEA analysis at the basin-averaged scale, significant relationships were observed between TWSA and SWEA for most of the fifteen basins considered (53% to 80% of the basins, depending on the SWE products considered). The best results were obtained with the CMC SWE products, compared to satellite-based SWE data. Stronger relationships were found in snow-dominated basins (Rs >= 0.7), such as the Liard [root mean square error (RMSE) = 21.4 mm] and Peace Basins (RMSE = 26.76 mm). However, despite high snow accumulation in northern Québec, GRACE showed weak or insignificant correlations with SWEA, regardless of the data sources. The same behavior was observed in the western Hudson Bay Basin. In both regions, it was found that the contribution of non-SWE compartments, including wetland, surface water, as well as soil water storages has a significant impact on the variations of total storage. These components were estimated using the WGHM simulations and then subtracted from GRACE observations. The GRACE-derived SWEA correlation results showed improved relationships with three SWEA products (CMC, GlobSnow2, AMSR-E). The improvement is particularly important in the sub-basins of the Hudson Bay, where very weak and insignificant results were previously found with GRACE TWSA data. GRACE-derived SWEA showed a significant relationship with CMC data in 93% of the basins (13% more than GRACE TWSA). In general, results revealed the importance of SWE changes in association with the terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations. The second objective of this thesis investigates whether integration of remotely sensed terrestrial water storage (TWS) information, which is derived from GRACE, can improve SWE and streamflow simulations within a semi-distributed hydrology land surface model. A data assimilation (DA) framework was developed to combine TWS observations with the MESH (Modélisation Environnementale Communautaire – Surface Hydrology) model using an ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS). This study examined the incorporation and development of the ensemble-based GRACE data assimilation framework into the MESH modeling framework for the first time. The snow-dominated Liard Basin was selected as a case study. The proposed assimilation methodology reduced bias of monthly SWE simulations at the basin scale by 17.5 % and improved unbiased root-mean-square difference (ubRMSD) by 23 %. At the grid scale, the DA method improved ubRMSD values and correlation coefficients of SWE estimates for 85 % and 97 % of the grid cells, respectively. Effects of GRACE DA on streamflow simulations were evaluated against observations from three river gauges, where it could effectively improve the simulation of high flows during snowmelt season from April to June. The influence of GRACE DA on the total flow volume and low flows was found to be variable. In general, the use of GRACE observations in the assimilation framework not only improved the simulation of SWE, but also effectively influenced the simulation of streamflow estimates.Les variations dans l'espace et le temps du stock d'eau à travers jouent un rôle important dans le système climatique de la Terre à travers l'échange des flux d'eau et d'énergie entre les compartiments du stock d’eau de la Terre, et entre l'atmosphère, les continents et les océans. Dans les régions nordiques, la fonte de la neige contrôle la disponibilité des ressources en eau. Concernant le processus hydrologique terrestre, l'équivalent en eau de la neige (SWE) est la caractéristique de neige la plus importante pour les hydrologues et les gestionnaires des ressources en eau. Le premier objectif de cette étude a examiné les variations spatio-temporelles des réservoirs terrestres d'eau et leurs liens avec les variabilités de SWE au Canada. Des anomalies de stockage d'eau terrestre (TWSA) provenant de GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), du modèle hydrologique mondial WaterGAP (WGHM) et du modèle GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) ont été utilisées. Les produits du SWEA (Snow Water Equiavalent Anomaly) sont fournis par le GlobSnow2 (Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research version 2), le AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer‐Earth Observing System) et le Centre météorologique canadien (CMC). L'analyse par cellule de grille (1°×1°) a été appliquée pour trouver toute relation possible entre TWSA et SWEA sur le territoire canadien, de décembre 2002 à mars 2011. Les résultats montrent que GRACE par rapport à CMC a fourni le pourcentage le plus élevé de corrélation positive significative (62,4% des 1128 cellules de la grille), avec un coefficient de corrélation positif significatif moyen de 0,5 et un maximum de 0,9. Dans la partie ouest du pays, GRACE a montré un meilleur accord avec plusieurs produits SWE que GLDAS. Pourtant, dans l'est du Canada, principalement dans le nord du Québec (~ 55° N), GRACE a fourni des corrélations faibles ou insignifiantes avec tous les produits SWE, contrairement à GLDAS qui semblait être significativement corrélé. Dans le cas de l’analyse à l'échelle du bassin versant, les relations significatives ont été observées entre TWSA et SWEA pour la plupart des quinze bassins considérés (53% à 80% des bassins, selon les produits SWE considérés). Les meilleurs résultats ont été obtenus avec les produits CMC SWE, par rapport aux données SWE satellitaires. Des relations plus fortes ont été trouvées dans les bassins dominés par la neige (Rs> = 0,7), tels que le bassin versant de Liard [erreur quadratique moyenne (RMSE) = 21,4 mm] et le bassin versant de Peace (RMSE = 26,76 mm). Cependant, malgré une forte accumulation de neige dans le nord du Québec, GRACE a montré des corrélations faibles ou insignifiantes avec SWEA, peu importent les sources de données. Le même comportement a été observé dans le bassin versant ouest de la Baie d’Hudson. Dans les deux régions, il a été constaté que la contribution des compartiments non-SWE, y compris les zones humides, les eaux de surface, ainsi que les stocks d'eau du sol a un effet significatif sur les variations du stock total. Ces composantes ont été estimées à l'aide des simulations du modèle WGHM, puis soustraites des observations GRACE. Ces résultats de corrélation SWEA dérivés de GRACE ont montré une amélioration des relations avec les trois produits SWE (CMC, GlobSnow2, AMSR-E). L'amélioration est particulièrement importante dans les sous-bassins de la Baie d’Hudson, où des résultats très faibles et insignifiants avaient été précédemment trouvés avec les données GRACE TWSA. La SWEA dérivée de GRACE a montré une relation significative avec les données CMC dans 93% des bassins (13% de plus que GRACE TWSA). En somme, les résultats obtenus dans ce premier objectif ont montré le rôle important du SWE dans les variations du stock terrestre de l'eau dans la région d’étude. Le deuxième objectif de cette thèse examine si l'intégration des informations de TWS (terrestrial water storage) dérivées de GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), peut améliorer les simulations du SWE et du débit d’eau dans un modèle hydrologique semi-distribué de schéma de surface. Un cadre d'assimilation de données (DA) a été développé pour combiner les observations TWS avec le modèle MESH (Modélisation Environnementale Communautaire - Hydrologie de Surface) en utilisant un ensemble Kalman Smoother (EnKS). Cette étude était la première du genre à tenter une assimilation des données GRACE dans le modèle MESH pour améliorer l’estimation du SWE. Le bassin versant de la Liard dominé par la neige a été choisi pour le site d’étude. À l’échelle du bassin versant, la méthodologie d'assimilation proposée a réduit le biais des simulations mensuelles de SWE à 17,5% et amélioré le ubRMSD (unbiased root-mean-square difference) de 23%. À l'échelle de la grille, la méthode DA a amélioré l’estimation du SWE pour les valeurs ubRMSD et les coefficients de corrélation pour 85% et 97% des cellules de la grille, respectivement. Les effets de GRACE DA sur les simulations de débit ont été évalués par rapport aux observations de trois stations des débits, où il pourrait effectivement améliorer la simulation des débits élevés pendant la saison de fonte de la neige d'avril à juin. L'influence de GRACE DA sur le volume total et les faibles débits d’eau a été trouvée variable. En général, l'utilisation des observations GRACE dans le cadre d'assimilation non seulement a amélioré la simulation de SWE, mais a également influencé efficacement la simulation des estimations de débit