Minimizing value-at-risk in the single-machine total weighted tardiness problem

The vast majority of the machine scheduling literature focuses on deterministic problems, in which all data is known with certainty a priori. This may be a reasonable assumption when the variability in the problem parameters is low. However, as variability in the parameters increases incorporating this uncertainty explicitly into a scheduling model is essential to mitigate the resulting adverse effects. In this paper, we consider the celebrated single-machine total weighted tardiness (TWT) problem in the presence of uncertain problem parameters. We impose a probabilistic constraint on the random TWT and introduce a risk-averse stochastic programming model. In particular, the objective of the proposed model is to find a non-preemptive static job processing sequence that minimizes the value-at-risk (VaR) measure on the random TWT at a specified confidence level. Furthermore, we develop a lower bound on the optimal VaR that may also benefit alternate solution approaches in the future. In this study, we implement a tabu-search heuristic to obtain reasonably good feasible solutions and present results to demonstrate the effect of the risk parameter and the value of the proposed model with respect to a corresponding risk-neutral approach

Problem-driven scenario generation: an analytical approach for stochastic programs with tail risk measure

Scenario generation is the construction of a discrete random vector to represent parameters of uncertain values in a stochastic program. Most approaches to scenario generation are distribution-driven, that is, they attempt to construct a random vector which captures well in a probabilistic sense the uncertainty. On the other hand, a problem-driven approach may be able to exploit the structure of a problem to provide a more concise representation of the uncertainty. In this paper we propose an analytic approach to problem-driven scenario generation. This approach applies to stochastic programs where a tail risk measure, such as conditional value-at-risk, is applied to a loss function. Since tail risk measures only depend on the upper tail of a distribution, standard methods of scenario generation, which typically spread their scenarios evenly across the support of the random vector, struggle to adequately represent tail risk. Our scenario generation approach works by targeting the construction of scenarios in areas of the distribution corresponding to the tails of the loss distributions. We provide conditions under which our approach is consistent with sampling, and as proof-of-concept demonstrate how our approach could be applied to two classes of problem, namely network design and portfolio selection. Numerical tests on the portfolio selection problem demonstrate that our approach yields better and more stable solutions compared to standard Monte Carlo sampling

Pattern Search Ranking and Selection Algorithms for Mixed-Variable Optimization of Stochastic Systems

A new class of algorithms is introduced and analyzed for bound and linearly constrained optimization problems with stochastic objective functions and a mixture of design variable types. The generalized pattern search (GPS) class of algorithms is extended to a new problem setting in which objective function evaluations require sampling from a model of a stochastic system. The approach combines GPS with ranking and selection (R&S) statistical procedures to select new iterates. The derivative-free algorithms require only black-box simulation responses and are applicable over domains with mixed variables (continuous, discrete numeric, and discrete categorical) to include bound and linear constraints on the continuous variables. A convergence analysis for the general class of algorithms establishes almost sure convergence of an iteration subsequence to stationary points appropriately defined in the mixed-variable domain. Additionally, specific algorithm instances are implemented that provide computational enhancements to the basic algorithm. Implementation alternatives include the use modern R&S procedures designed to provide efficient sampling strategies and the use of surrogate functions that augment the search by approximating the unknown objective function with nonparametric response surfaces. In a computational evaluation, six variants of the algorithm are tested along with four competing methods on 26 standardized test problems. The numerical results validate the use of advanced implementations as a means to improve algorithm performance

Simulation and optimization in production planning: A case study (Version 2)

Management Information Systems;Production;produktieleer/ produktieplanning

Online Predictive Optimization Framework for Stochastic Demand-Responsive Transit Services

This study develops an online predictive optimization framework for dynamically operating a transit service in an area of crowd movements. The proposed framework integrates demand prediction and supply optimization to periodically redesign the service routes based on recently observed demand. To predict demand for the service, we use Quantile Regression to estimate the marginal distribution of movement counts between each pair of serviced locations. The framework then combines these marginals into a joint demand distribution by constructing a Gaussian copula, which captures the structure of correlation between the marginals. For supply optimization, we devise a linear programming model, which simultaneously determines the route structure and the service frequency according to the predicted demand. Importantly, our framework both preserves the uncertainty structure of future demand and leverages this for robust route optimization, while keeping both components decoupled. We evaluate our framework using a real-world case study of autonomous mobility in a university campus in Denmark. The results show that our framework often obtains the ground truth optimal solution, and can outperform conventional methods for route optimization, which do not leverage full predictive distributions.Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures, 5 table

A simulation-based optimisation for the stochastic green capacitated p-median problem

Purpose: This paper aims to propose a new model called the stochastic green capacitated p-median problem with a simulation-based optimisation approach. An integer linear programming mathematical model is built considering the total emission produced by vehicles and the uncertain parameters including the travel cost for a vehicle to travel from a particular facility to a customer and the amount of CO2 emissions produced. We also develop a simulation-based optimisation algorithm for solving the problem. Design/methodology/approach: The authors proposed new algorithms to solve the problem. The proposed algorithm is a hybridisation of Monte Carlo simulation and a Variable Neighbourhood Search matheuristic. The proposed model and method are evaluated using instances that are available in the literature. Findings: Based on the results produced by the computational experiments, the developed approach can obtain interesting results. The obtained results display that the proposed method can solve the problems within a short computational time and the solutions produced have good quality (small deviations). Originality/value: To the best of our knowledge, there is no paper in the previous literature investigating the simulation-based optimisation for the stochastic green capacitated p-median problem. There are two main contributions in this paper. First, to build a new model for the capacitated p-median problem taking into account the environmental impact. Second, to design a simulation-based optimisation approach to solve the stochastic green capacitated p-median problem incorporating VNS-based matheuristic and Monte Carlo simulationPeer Reviewe