Decision support for firm performance by real options analytics

This paper develops a real options decision support tool for raising the performance of the firm. It shows how entrepreneurs can use our intuitive tool quickly to assess the nature and type of action required for improved performance. This exploits our estimated econometric relationship between precipitators of entrepreneurial opportunities, time until exercise, and firm performance. Our 3D chromaticity plots show how staging investments, investment time, and firm performance support entrepreneurial decisions to embed, or to expedite, investments. Speedy entrepreneurial action is securely supported with this tool, without expertise in econometric estimation or in formulae for real options valuation

Applying ArchOptions to value the payoff of refactoring

ArchOptions is a real-options based model that we have pro-posed to value the flexibility of software architectures in response to future changes in requirements. In this paper, we build on ArchOptions to devise an options-based model, which values the architectural flexibility that results from a refactoring exercise. This value assists in understanding the payoff of investing in refactoring: if the refactored system results in an architecture that is more flexible, such that the expected added value (in the form of options) due to the en-hanced flexibility outweighs the cost of investing in this exer-cise, then refactoring is said to payoff. We apply our model to a refactoring case study from the literature

Using real options to select stable Middleware-induced software architectures

The requirements that force decisions towards building distributed system architectures are usually of a non-functional nature. Scalability, openness, heterogeneity, and fault-tolerance are examples of such non-functional requirements. The current trend is to build distributed systems with middleware, which provide the application developer with primitives for managing the complexity of distribution, system resources, and for realising many of the non-functional requirements. As non-functional requirements evolve, the `coupling' between the middleware and architecture becomes the focal point for understanding the stability of the distributed software system architecture in the face of change. It is hypothesised that the choice of a stable distributed software architecture depends on the choice of the underlying middleware and its flexibility in responding to future changes in non-functional requirements. Drawing on a case study that adequately represents a medium-size component-based distributed architecture, it is reported how a likely future change in scalability could impact the architectural structure of two versions, each induced with a distinct middleware: one with CORBA and the other with J2EE. An option-based model is derived to value the flexibility of the induced-architectures and to guide the selection. The hypothesis is verified to be true for the given change. The paper concludes with some observations that could stimulate future research in the area of relating requirements to software architectures

Enterprise application reuse: Semantic discovery of business grid services

Web services have emerged as a prominent paradigm for the development of distributed software systems as they provide the potential for software to be modularized in a way that functionality can be described, discovered and deployed in a platform independent manner over a network (e.g., intranets, extranets and the Internet). This paper examines an extension of this paradigm to encompass ‘Grid Services’, which enables software capabilities to be recast with an operational focus and support a heterogeneous mix of business software and data, termed a Business Grid - "the grid of semantic services". The current industrial representation of services is predominantly syntactic however, lacking the fundamental semantic underpinnings required to fulfill the goals of any semantically-oriented Grid. Consequently, the use of semantic technology in support of business software heterogeneity is investigated as a likely tool to support a diverse and distributed software inventory and user. Service discovery architecture is therefore developed that is (a) distributed in form, (2) supports distributed service knowledge and (3) automatically extends service knowledge (as greater descriptive precision is inferred from the operating application system). This discovery engine is used to execute several real-word scenarios in order to develop and test a framework for engineering such grid service knowledge. The examples presented comprise software components taken from a group of Investment Banking systems. Resulting from the research is a framework for engineering servic

The Learning Edge: Supporting Student Success in a Competency-Based Learning Environment

State by state, our country is revamping our education system to ensure that each and every one of our young people is college and career ready. Over two-thirds of our states have adopted policies that enable credits to be awarded based on proficiency in a subject, rather than the one-size-fits-all seat-time in a classroom. Now states such as Maine and New Hampshire are taking the next step in establishing competency based diplomas in which students are expected to demonstrate that they can apply their skills and knowledge. To ensure high-quality competency education, in 2011 one hundred innovators created a working definition to guide the field. This paper delves into the fourth element of the definition: Students receive timely, differentiated support based on their individual learning needs. Through a series of interviews and site visits, an understanding of how support in a competency-based school differs from traditional approaches emerged. Learning in a competency-based environment means pushing students and adults to the edge of their comfort zone and competence -- the learning edge. Common themes that were drawn from the wide variety of ways schools support students became the basis for the design principles introduced here. It is essential to pause and understand the importance of timely, differentiated support. Our commitment to prepare all of our young people for college and careers demands that we be intentional in designing schools to effectively meet the needs of students of all races, classes, and cultures. It also demands our vigilance in challenging inequity. There is a risk in competency education -- a risk that learning at one's own pace could become the new achievement gap and that learning anywhere/anytime could become the new opportunity gap. Therefore, our goal in writing this paper is to provide ideas and guidance so that innovators in competency education can put into place powerful systems of supports for students in order to eradicate, not replicate, the inequities and variability in quality and outcomes that exist in our current system. Please consider this paper as an initial exploration into what it means to provide support for the individual learning needs of students. It is designed to generate reflection, analysis, and feedback

Determining Utility System Value of Demand Flexibility From Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings

This report focuses on ways current methods and practices that establish the value to electric utility systems of distributed energy resource (DER) investments can be enhanced to determine the value of demand flexibility in grid-interactive efficient buildings that can provide grid services. The report introduces key valuation concepts that are applicable to demand flexibility that these buildings can provide and links to other documents that describe these concepts and their implementation in more detail.The scope of this report is limited to the valuation of economic benefits to the utility system. These are the foundational values on which other benefits (and costs) can be built. Establishing the economic value to the grid of demand flexibility provides the information needed to design programs, market rules, and rates that align the economic interest of utility customers with building owners and occupants. By nature, DERs directly impact customers and provide societal benefits external to the utility system. Jurisdictions can use utility system benefits and costs as the foundation of their economic analysis but align their primary cost-effectiveness metric with all applicable policy objectives, which may include customer and societal (non-utility system) impacts.This report suggests enhancements to current methods and practices that state and local policymakers, public utility commissions, state energy offices, utilities, state utility consumer representatives, and other stakeholders might support. These enhancements can improve the consistency and robustness of economic valuation of demand flexibility for grid services. The report concludes with a discussion of considerations for prioritizing implementation of these improvements

Extracting the Essence of Flexibility in System Design

The modest purpose of this paper is to review the concept of flexibility as discussed in various fields of investigations, and to extract its characteristic features. In order to discuss any subject matter clearly, it is necessary to begin with a clear set of definitions. Indeed much can be gained through careful and consistent definitions of terms alone. Flexibility however is a word rich with ambiguity. While it is being increasingly used in various fields, few attempts have been made to formally define, quantify, and propose ways for achieving flexibility. This paper proposes to fill in part this gap by synthesizing a clear and consistent definition of flexibility. It will do so by reviewing the usage of the term in various fields of inquiries, and show that it is indeed possible to clearly and unambiguously characterize flexibility, and to disentangle it from closely related concepts

Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis

In deregulated electricity markets, the transmission network is a key infrastructure for enabling competition in the generation sector. A deficient expansion of the transmission grid prevents the realization of the benefits in terms of efficiency associated with market mechanisms. Consequently, it is essential to provide clear investment policies and economic signals to attract timely and efficient transmission in order to be developed at minimum cost, with adequate levels of service quality and reliability, and adapted to the requirements of generators and consumers. This paper proposes a modern tool of economic evaluation based on Real Options Analysis that provides the regulator the ability to assess various incentives that allow transmission investors to make efficient decisions in highly uncertain environments. Real Options properly values partially irreversible investment decisions, such as to defer, modify or abandon an investment project in response to the arrival of new information or as uncertainties are resolved. Decisions are evaluated from the point of view of an agent trying to maximize its own profits in the time period set to recover the capital invested. The results of this paper allow the study of the behavior of transmission investors regarding their decision making when they have the possibility to manage the option to defer, under different regulatory schemes that encourage the expansion of the transmission systemFil: Pringles, Rolando Marcelo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico San Juan. Instituto de Energia Electrica; ArgentinaFil: Olsina, Fernando Gabriel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico San Juan. Instituto de Energia Electrica; ArgentinaFil: Garces, Francisco Felipe. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas. Centro Cientifico Tecnologico San Juan. Instituto de Energia Electrica; Argentin

Learning in MOOCs: The [Un]democratisation of Learning

Massive open online courses have been signaled as a disruptive and democratizing force in online, distance education. This position paper critiques these claims, examining the tensions between viewing MOOCs as products and students as customers, and the perspective of students as learners who may, or might not, be able to determine their own learning pathway. The capacity, or non-ability, to self-regulate learning leads to inequalities in the ways learners experience MOOCs. While some MOOCs have contributed to change, many replicate and reinforce education that privilege the elite. This paper argues a need to support the development of digital skills and core competencies, including the ability to self-regulate learning, to ensure learners can participate in a new democracy of open, online learning