Application of the American Real Flexible Switch Options Methodology A Generalized Approach

The paper deals with the inclusion of flexibility in financial decision-making under risk. It describes the application of the real options methodology with the possibility of sequential multinomial decision-making. The basic intention is to describe and apply a generalized approach and methodology of the flexibility modeling and valuation based on multiple choices and non-symmetrical switching costs under risk. The stochastic dynamic Bellman optimization principle is explained and applied. The optimization criterion of the present expected value is derived and used. Likewise, an option valuation approach based on replication strategy and risk-neutral probability is applied. An illustrative example of the application of the real multinomial flexible non-symmetrical switch options methodology is presented for three chosen modes. The option flexible values are computed. The usefulness, effectiveness, and suitability of applying the generalized flexibility model in company valuation and project evaluation is verified and confirmed. The significance of applying the generalized methodology in transition market economies is discussed and verified.financial options; real options; Discrete Binomial Model; pricing; stochastic dynamic Bellman Optimization Principle; switch options

Real Options Methodology Applied to the ICT Sector: A Survey

This survey focuses on the application of real options methodology to the information and communications technology (ICT) industries. It examines the development of the methodology to areas as diverse as wireless cell site investments to dynamic pricing issues. In addition to aiding the reader in understanding the breadth of the applications, it demonstrates the importance of the topic. It provides a guide to the reader who is interested in exploring the topic in greater depth.Discounted cash flow, economic methodology, information and communications technology (ICT), investment, investment under uncertainty, options, present discounted value, real options, valuations.

Ensaios sobre flexibilidade da cadeia de abastecimento: uma abordagem de opções reais

Doutoramento em Gestão IndustrialA presente tese investiga o processo de tomada de decisão na gestão de cadeias de abastecimento, utilizando um quadro de análise de opções reais. Especificamente, estudamos tópicos como o nível de inventário ideal para protecção contra a incerteza da procura, o momento para implementação de capacidade flexível em mercados onde existe complexidade no mix de produtos, o tempo para o reforço do factor trabalho visando requisitos de serviço ao mercado, e as decisões entre integração e outsourcing num ambiente de incerteza. Foram usadas metodologias de tempo discreto e contínuo para identificar o valor ideal e o calendário das opções a adoptar, quando a procura é estocástica. Além disso, foram considerados os efeitos dos requisitos dos mercados, como a complexidade na oferta de produtos e o nível de serviço. A procura é representada recorrendo a diferentes processos estocásticos, o impacto de saltos inesperados também é explorado, reforçando a generalização dos modelos a diferentes condições de negócio. A aplicabilidade dos modelos que apresentamos permite a diversificação e o enriquecimento da literatura sobre a abordagem de opções reais, no âmbito das cadeias de abastecimento. Níveis de inventário flexíveis e capacidades flexíveis são característicos das cadeias de abastecimento e podem ser usados como resposta à incerteza do mercado. Esta tese é constituída por ensaios que suportam a aplicação dos modelos, e consiste num capítulo introdutório (designado por ensaio I) e mais seis ensaios sobre factores que discutem o uso de medidas de flexibilidade nas cadeias de abastecimento, em ambientes de incerteza, e um último ensaio sobre a extensão do conceito de flexibilidade ao tratamento da avaliação de planos de negócio. O segundo ensaio que apresentamos é sobre o valor do inventário num único estádio, enquanto medida de flexibilidade, sujeita ao crescente condicionalismo dos custos com posse de activos. Introduzimos uma nova classificação de artigos para suportar o indicador designado por overstock. No terceiro e quarto ensaio ampliamos a exploração do conceito de overstock, promovendo a interacção e o balanceamento entre vários estádios de uma cadeia de abastecimento, como forma de melhorar o desempenho global. Para sustentar a aplicação prática das abordagens, adaptamos o ensaio número três à gestão do desempenho, para suportar o estabelecimento de metas coordenadas e alinhadas; e adaptamos o quarto ensaio à coordenação das cadeias de abastecimento, como auxiliar ao planeamento integrado e sequencial dos níveis de inventário. No ensaio cinco analisamos o factor de produção “tecnologia”, em relação directa com a oferta de produtos de uma empresa, explorando o conceito de investimento, como medida de flexibilidade nas componentes de volume da procura e gama de produtos. Dedicamos o ensaio número seis à análise do factor de produção “Mão-de-Obra”, explorando as condicionantes para aumento do número de turnos na perspectiva económica e determinando o ponto crítico para a tomada de decisão em ambientes de incerteza. No ensaio número sete exploramos o conceito de internalização de operações, demarcando a nossa análise das demais pela definição do momento crítico que suporta a tomada de decisão em ambientes dinâmicos. Complementamos a análise com a introdução de factores temporais de perturbação, nomeadamente, o estádio de preparação necessário e anterior a uma eventual alteração de estratégia. Finalmente, no último ensaio, estendemos a análise da flexibilidade em ambientes de incerteza ao conceito de planos de negócio. Em concreto, exploramos a influência do número de pontos de decisão na flexibilidade de um plano, como resposta à crescente incerteza dos mercados. A título de exemplo, usamos o mecanismo de gestão sequencial do orçamento para suportar o nosso modelo. A crescente incerteza da procura obrigou a um aumento da agilidade e da flexibilidade das cadeias de abastecimento, limitando o uso de muitas das técnicas tradicionais de suporte à gestão, pela incapacidade de incorporarem os efeitos da incerteza. A flexibilidade é claramente uma vantagem competitiva das empresas que deve, por isso, ser quantificada. Com os modelos apresentados e com base nos resultados analisados, pretendemos demonstrar a utilidade da consideração da incerteza nos instrumentos de gestão, usando exemplos numéricos para suportar a aplicação dos modelos, o que claramente promove a aproximação dos desenvolvimentos aqui apresentados às práticas de negócio.The present thesis researches the process of decision making in supply chain management using a real options analysis framework. Specifically, we address issues regarding the optimal inventory level to hedge against demand uncertainties; the timing for equipment capacity implementation under market product mix complexity; the timing for workforce capacity reinforcement aiming market service requirements; and the decisions between integration and outsourcing in an uncertainty environment. Discrete and continuous time methodologies were used to identify the optimal value and timing of the options to adopt, when the demand is stochastic. Additionally, the effect of market requirements, such as product mix complexity and service level, were also taken into consideration. The demand is modelled under different stochastic processes; the impact of unexpected shocks is also explored, which enhances the generalization of the models to different business conditions. The applicability of the models enables the diversification and enrichment of the literature on the real options approach, within supply chain concept. Flexible inventory levels and the flexible capacity are supply chain features that can be used to deal with demand uncertainty. The thesis is organized by essays that support the application of the models, and consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and six trials on factors that enhance the use of supply chain flexibility measures in uncertainty environments and an extended essay on the concept of flexibility to the evaluation of business plans. The second essay we present refers to the inventory value in a single echelon, as a measure of flexibility, subject to cost constraints. We introduce a new items’ classification to support the indicator designated as overstock. In the third and fourth experiments we extend the concept of overstock, promoting the interaction and balance between supply chain echelons in order to improve overall performance. For a practical application of the approaches, we adapted the third essay to the performance management, to support the establishment of coordinated and aligned goals, and used the fourth essay to the coordination of supply chains, supporting the integrated and sequential inventory planning. In the fifth essay we analyse manufacturing technology features in connection with the company's product mix, exploring the concept of investment as a flexible measure to deal with uncertain demand volume and product range flexibility. We dedicate the sixth essay to the analysis of the input "workforce", exploring the economic conditions for increasing the number of work shifts and determining the critical point for decision making in uncertainty environments. In the essay number seven, we explore the concept of internalisation of operations, focusing our analysis in the trigger moment that supports decision making in dynamic environments. We complement the analysis by introducing temporal factors that could disturb the change, including the preparation stage prior to any strategic alternative. Finally, in the last essay, we extend the concept of flexibility in uncertainty environments to the business plans analysis. Specifically, we explore the influence of the number of decision points in the flexibility of a plan in response to increasing market uncertainty. As an example, we use the mechanism of sequential budget to support the model. The increasing uncertainty in demand has promoted supply chains agility and flexibility, limiting the use of many of the traditional management techniques, because of their inability to incorporate the effects of uncertainty. Flexibility is clearly a competitive advantage that companies should have and therefore must be quantified. With the models developed and results that are presented, this thesis aims to demonstrate the usefulness of considering the uncertainty impact in management tools, using numerical examples to support the application of the models and the interpretation of the results, which clearly seek to bring the developments to the actual business practices

On investment, uncertainty, and strategic interaction with applications in energy markets

The thesis presents dynamic models on investment under uncertainty with the focus on strategic interaction and energy market applications. The uncertainty is modelled using stochastic processes as state variables. The specific questions analyzed include the effect of technological and revenue related uncertainties on the optimal timing of investment, the irreversibility in the choice between alternative investment projects with different degrees of uncertainty, and the effect of strategic interaction on the initiating of discrete investment projects, on the abandonment of a project, and on incremental capacity investments. The main methodological feature is the incorporation of game theoretic concepts in the theory of investment. It is argued that such an approach is often desirable in terms of real applications, because many industries are characterized by both uncertainty and strategic interaction between the firms. Besides extending the theory of investment, this line of work may be seen as an extension of the theory of industrial organization towards the direction that views market stability as one of the factors explaining rational behaviour of the firms.reviewe

Managerial risk in information technology investments : effects of framing, narrow framing and time inconsistent preferences on real options exercise decisions

Real options theory has been advocated as a solution to risky IT investment decisions. IT investments decisions are risky due to uncertainty around future outcomes and the inability of traditional financial measures (like NPV, IRR) to account for inherent managerial flexibility. On the one hand, it is argued that real options analysis captures and formalizes managers' intuition, hence creating a disciplined decision making process. On the other hand, the intuitive valuation of the options is criticized due to the prevalent effects of various judgmental biases. In this dissertation, we explore three potential biases that can affect the real option exercise decisions in terms of either suboptimal option exercise choice due to framing and narrow framing effects, or suboptimal exercise time due to time inconsistent preferences of IT managers. We test for framing effects in individual IT project decisions and narrow framing effects in IT portfolio decisions, by conducting an online experiment among top and mid-level IT professionals. The results show that IT professionals are prone to framing real options at exercise time and simplifying complicated real option exercise decisions by isolating them in IT portfolios. Further, their decisions are influenced by their personal risk preferences. We analyze the effect of time-inconsistent preferences of present-biased managers on the exercise time of real growth and abandonment options and the realized values using a discrete time option valuation model. The results show that present-biased managers are more likely to exercise growth options early when the net payoffs are low, the growth option payoffs have high volatility, and the risk free discount rate is small. Also, present-biased managers are more likely to exercise abandonment option late when the net payoffs from continuing the project are high, salvage value of the project is low, and the rate of change in the salvage value over the period of time is low. In addition, present biased managers are more likely to exercise a growth option early in its life when the project is performing well. We provide implications for practice and IT governance

A conceptual framework of cost/benefit justification for ergonomic projects to reduce musculoskeletal disorders in the workplace

A framework for justifying ergonomic projects to the overall cost savings is developed which estimates the extent of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) exposures to a specific industry. A cost structure is developed to estimate the investment needed for an ergonomics program and the costs related to MSDs problems including workers\u27 compensation costs, work-related costs, and labor turnover costs. Data was adopted from sources including Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP-3), and estimates suggested in OSHA\u27s former Ergonomics Standard. Top fifteen manufacturing industries with the highest MSDs rates were selected to apply the framework. Results showed that the overall cost savings among the fifteen selected industries come from ergonomics activities addressing the problem of overexertion (58%), bodily reaction (15%), and repetitive motion (27%). The study makes it possible to identify the proportion of exposure types that contribute to the overall costs of MSDs problems, so that managers can prioritize ergonomic analysis and control activities appropriately. Furthermore, based on the literature review, this is the first study to investigate the feasibility of using Real Options method to quantify ergonomic investment as well as an attempt to identify different types of real options in ergonomics program. Results showed that the value of ergonomics program could increase up to 2.43 times of the original value when real options are included

An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model

This paper applies real options theory to establish an overseas oil investment evaluation model that is based on Monte Carlo simulation and is solved by the Least Squares Monte-Carlo method. To better reflect the reality of overseas oil investment, our model has incorporated not only the uncertainties of oil price and investment cost but also the uncertainties of exchange rate and investment environment. These unique features have enabled our model to be best equipped to evaluate the value of oil overseas investment projects of three oil field sizes (large, medium, small) and under different resource tax systems (royalty tax and production sharing contracts). In our empirical setting, we have selected China as an investor country and Indonesia as an investee country as a case study. Our results show that the investment risks and project values of small sized oil fields are more sensitive to changes in the uncertainty factors than the large and medium sized oil fields. Furthermore, among the uncertainty factors considered in the model, the investment risk of overseas oil investment may be underestimated if no consideration is given of the impacts of exchange rate and investment environment. Finally, as there is an important trade-off between oil resource investee country and overseas oil investor, in medium and small sized oil investment negotiation the oil company should try to increase the cost oil limit in production sharing contract and avoid the term of a windfall profits tax to reduce the investment risk of overseas oil fields.Overseas Oil Investment, Project Value, Real Options, Least Squares Monte-Carlo

Strategic flexibility

A flexible system is defined as one that can change the entity\u27s stance, capability or status reacting to a change of the entity\u27s environment. Flexibility has gathered the attention of academic researchers and industry practitioners as an efficient approach to cope with today\u27s volatile environment. As the environments become more unpredictable and volatile, it is imperative for a flexible system to respond quickly to a change in its circumstance. How much flexibility is embedded into the system also has a critical impact on the long-term effectiveness of the flexible system. Moreover, this research focuses on the strategic environment where a decision maker\u27s behavior influences other decision makers\u27 and vice versa. ^ The primary objectives of this dissertation are developing a concrete framework for designing a flexible system by considering the exercise delay as a measure of flexibility and investigating the rational behaviors of decision makers who operate flexible systems under strategic environments. The general approach employed to develop the theoretical models for this dissertation includes optimal control theory, non-linear optimization, stochastic differential equation and game theory. ^ The first part of this research studies the optimal decisions on a flexible system with exercise delay within stochastic environments by postulating two level decisions, operational level and design level decisions. The operational level problem is modeled as a delayed optimal stopping time problem, and this research provides a comprehensive profile of the optimal operational policies according to the parameters representing the market conditions and characteristics of the alternative and designed features of the flexible system. In addition, the profile elucidates the interdependence between the operational level decision and the design level decision separating the entire domain of the design problem into sub-regions. This research effort finds that the design problem is decomposable with well-behaved non-linear optimization problems, and provides illustrative examples to show the usefulness of the developed framework. ^ The second part of this research concentrates on strategic environments which force a decision maker to cope with both exogenous uncertainty and endogenous interactions among decision makers. As the strategic environment, a duopoly market share competition is postulated where the total market profit is regarded as the underlying uncertainty. The player retaining an exclusive patent is regarded as a player competing in the market with a flexible system that does not have exercise delay, and the other competitor is interpreted as a player operating a flexible system with exercise delay. The open loop and closed loop information structures are considered for each model. The results showed that the open loop equilibrium is unique dominant strategy equilibrium. An interesting implication of the open loop equilibria is that the profitability of the flexible option decides the role of its owner in the duopoly market competition. This research finds that the closed loop equilibrium has two distinctive forms. When the asymmetry of exercise delay is large, the closed loop equilibrium is identical to the open loop equilibrium. On the other hand, if the asymmetry provides only a small enough advantage to the player who has a flexible option without exercise delay, the rational behaviors of the players are complicated in the closed loop equilibrium. The first insight from the closed loop equilibrium with large asymmetry is that the closed loop information structure hastens the execution of flexible options, and it results in lower payoffs to both of the players. Second, the role of each player is determined not only by the characteristics of the flexible options but also by the value of stochastic factor. Third, even the player with a competitive disadvantage from the asymmetry has a positive chance to be the leader of the market. ^ This research contributes to the area within industrial engineering and operations research by improving the current theoretical achievement of flexibility. The accomplishments of this work provides insights to various domains those would benefit from enhanced flexibility in the decision making process

Options analysis--an innovative tool for manufacturing decision-making

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1995, and Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Materials Science & Engineering, 1995.Includes bibliographical references (p. 78-99).by Craig Spencer Belnap.M.S

Real options analysis in strategic decision making.

Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.The research addresses the management dilemma of a decrease in the number of capital project investments, due to the current methods of capital budgeting (i.e. net present value analysis using discounted cash flows) being ineffective, because it does not effectively deal with uncertainty in the investment, and also does take management's flexibility into account. It has been determined that a strategic options framework can be used to provide a more meaningful assessment of future business opportunities under uncertainty. The options approach complements the conventional net present value criterion in evaluating risky investment. The options approach provides an immediate and important perspective on value creation because the options approach takes into consideration that management have the choice of deferring the investment to a later date when circumstances are more certain, and there is less risk involved, or the choice of completely abandoning the investment