Econometric Analysis of Pricing and Operational Strategies

This dissertation contains three essays. The first essay, entitled Pricing and Production Flexibility: An Empirical Analysis of the U.S. Automotive Industry, uses a detailed dataset of the U.S. auto industry to examine the relationship between production flexibility and responsive pricing. Our analysis shows that deploying production flexibility is associated with a reduction in observed discounts and with an increase in plant utilization. Our results allow quantifying some of the benefits of production flexibility. The second essay, entitled An Empirical Analysis of Reputation in Online Service Marketplaces, uses a detailed dataset from a leading online intermediary for software development services to empirically examine the role of reputation on choices and prices in service marketplaces. We find that buyers trade off reputation and price and are willing to accept higher bids posted by more reputable bidders. Sellers primarily use a superior reputation to increase their probability of being selected, as opposed to increasing their prices. Our analysis shows that the numerical reputation score has a smaller effect in situations where there exists a previous relationship between buyer and seller, when the seller has certified his or her skills, when the seller is local, or in situations that prompt higher interpersonal trust. The third essay, entitled The Effects of Product Line Breadth: Evidence from the Automotive Industry, studies the effects of product line breadth on market shares and costs, using data from the U.S. automotive industry. Our results show a positive association between product line breadth and market share and production costs. Beyond the effects on production costs, we study the effect of product line breadth on mismatch costs, which arise from demand uncertainty, and we find that product line breadth has a substantial impact on average discounts and inventories. Our results also show that platform strategies can reduce production costs and that a broader product line can provide a hedge against changes in demand conditions

Predicting Engagement in Video Lectures

The explosion of Open Educational Resources (OERs) in the recent years creates the demand for scalable, automatic approaches to process and evaluate OERs, with the end goal of identifying and recommending the most suitable educational materials for learners. We focus on building models to find the characteristics and features involved in context-agnostic engagement (i.e. population-based), a seldom researched topic compared to other contextualised and personalised approaches that focus more on individual learner engagement. Learner engagement, is arguably a more reliable measure than popularity/number of views, is more abundant than user ratings and has also been shown to be a crucial component in achieving learning outcomes. In this work, we explore the idea of building a predictive model for population-based engagement in education. We introduce a novel, large dataset of video lectures for predicting context-agnostic engagement and propose both cross-modal and modality-specific feature sets to achieve this task. We further test different strategies for quantifying learner engagement signals. We demonstrate the use of our approach in the case of data scarcity. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis of the best performing model, which shows promising performance and can be easily integrated into an educational recommender system for OERs.Comment: In Proceedings of International Conference on Educational Data Mining 202

Can Who-Edits-What Predict Edit Survival?

As the number of contributors to online peer-production systems grows, it becomes increasingly important to predict whether the edits that users make will eventually be beneficial to the project. Existing solutions either rely on a user reputation system or consist of a highly specialized predictor that is tailored to a specific peer-production system. In this work, we explore a different point in the solution space that goes beyond user reputation but does not involve any content-based feature of the edits. We view each edit as a game between the editor and the component of the project. We posit that the probability that an edit is accepted is a function of the editor's skill, of the difficulty of editing the component and of a user-component interaction term. Our model is broadly applicable, as it only requires observing data about who makes an edit, what the edit affects and whether the edit survives or not. We apply our model on Wikipedia and the Linux kernel, two examples of large-scale peer-production systems, and we seek to understand whether it can effectively predict edit survival: in both cases, we provide a positive answer. Our approach significantly outperforms those based solely on user reputation and bridges the gap with specialized predictors that use content-based features. It is simple to implement, computationally inexpensive, and in addition it enables us to discover interesting structure in the data.Comment: Accepted at KDD 201

Typology of Couples Entering Alcohol Behavioral Couple Therapy: An Empirical Approach and Test of Predictive Validity on Treatment Response

Behavioral Couple Therapy (BCT) has garnered considerable empirical support for its efficacy in resolving marital conflict. BCT also has documented success in treating individual health problems, including alcohol use disorders (AUDs). Consistent with the larger BCT framework, Alcohol Behavioral Couple Therapy (ABCT) theory considers social interactions and exchanges in response to alcohol as critical antecedents and reinforcers of alcohol use. Thus, the purported mechanisms behind such components (e.g. positive reciprocity, leveling & editing) are based on the implicit assumption that the relationships of individuals where one partner has a problem with alcohol work similarly to those in distressed couples which neither partner has an alcohol problem. However, this assumption has yet to be tested directly; thus, the aim of the current study was to test whether classification of the presentation of couples in which one partner has an alcohol problem provides similarly meaningful information to what has been documented in the general couples literature. Specifically, typologies of couples seeking ABCT (N = 169) were examined and compared to couple typologies found in previous research on community samples of couples. Additionally, this study aimed to build on the couple typology findings by examining whether typology at the start of treatment predicted alcohol treatment response and outcome. Results suggest that four types of couples can be reliably established in couples seeking ABCT and these couple types resemble couples types found in previous research. Couple type was associated with baseline relationship satisfaction; however, no evidence was found that couple type is associated with alcohol use outcome. The implications of these findings are discussed in the context of general couple therapy and ABCT specifically

Corporate culture and firm value:Evidence from crisis

Based on the Competing Values Framework (CVF), we score 10-K text to measure company culture in four types (collaborative, controlling, competitive, and creative) and examine its role in firm stability. We find that firms with higher controlling culture fared significantly better during the 2008–09 crisis. Firms with stronger controlling culture experienced fewer layoffs, less negative asset growth, greater debt issuance, and increased access to credit-line facilities during the crisis. The positive effect of the controlling culture is stronger among the financially-constrained firms. Overall, the controlling culture improves firm stability through greater support from capital providers

Governance and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper addresses the issue of the low level of private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with special emphasis on the role of governance. Based on the existing literature, we have categorized what types of governance institutions are more detrimental to entrepreneurial investments. We have then estimated a simultaneous model of private investment and governance quality where economic policies concurrently explain both variables. Our empirical results show that governance plays a significant role in private investment decisions. This result is particularly true in the case of “Administrative Quality” in the form of control of corruption, bureaucratic quality, investment-friendly profile of administration, and law and order, as well as for “Political Stability”. Evidence in favor of “Public Accountability” seems, however, less robust. Our estimations also stress that structural reforms -- such as financial development and trade openness – and human development affect private investment decisions directly, and/or through their positive impact on governance. These findings bring new empirical evidence on the subject of private investment in the developing world and in MENA countries in particular.governance, private investment, institutions, Middle East and North Africa.

Governance and private investment in the Middle East and North Africa

This paper addresses the issue of the low level of private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with special emphasis on the role of governance. Based on the existing literature, the authors categorize what types of governance institutions are more detrimental to entrepreneurial investments. They then estimate a simultaneous model of private investment and governance quality where economic policies concurrently explain both variables. The empirical results show that governance plays a significant role in private investment decisions. This result is particularly true in the case of"administrative quality"in the form of control of corruption, bureaucratic quality, investment-friendly profile of administration, and law and order, as well as for"political stability."Evidence in favor of"public accountability"seems, however, less robust. The estimations also stress that structural reforms-such as financial development and trade openness-and human development affect private investment decisions directly, and/or through their positive impact on governance. These findings bring new empirical evidence on the subject of private investment in the developing world and in MENA countries in particular.Governance Indicators,Investment and Investment Climate,Economic Theory&Research,National Governance,Trade and Regional Integration