Exploring fuzzy cognitive mapping for IS evaluation: A research note

Existing IS Evaluation (ISE) techniques tend to focus on modeling individuals, teams, organization, or systems, in relation to process and environmental boundaries. Whilst such approaches are noteworthy and of merit, they do not necessarily provide insights into those causal interdependencies that are inherent within decision-making task. As has been noted by the extant literature in the field, the ISE task is dependent upon many factors – the resulting outputs of which may be tangible or intangible. The implicit level of uncertainty associated with modeling such decision-making tasks and behaviors, are therefore difficult to comprehend and impart via wholly Quantitative and / or Qualitative analyses. The authors therefore present and propose supporting and on-going research into the application of Fuzzy Logic, in the guise of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) simulations, as a means to model tangible/intangible aspects of the ISE decision-making task. Such a Fuzzy Information Systems Evaluation (F-ISE) is shown via the application of the FCM technique, in terms of three models of investment appraisal that are aligned to an ISE task within a UK manufacturing organization. In doing so, it is anticipated that such a technique may be a useful addition to the plethora of ISE techniques available to both researcher and practitioner alike

Applying concepts of fuzzy cognitive mapping to model IT/IS investment evaluation factors

The justification process is a major concern for many organisations that are considering the adoption of Information Technology (IT) and Information Systems (IS), and is a barrier to its implementation. As a result, the competitive advantage of many companies is being put at risk because of management's inability to evaluate the holistic implication of adopting new technology, both in terms of on the benefit and cost portfolios. This paper identifies a number of well-known project appraisal techniques used in IT/IS investment justification. Furthermore, the concept of multivalent, or fuzzy logic, is used to demonstrate how inter-relationships can be modeled between key dimensions identified in the proposed conceptual evaluation model. This is highlighted using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a technique to model each IT/IS evaluation factor (integrating strategic, tactical, operational and investment considerations). The use of an FCM is then shown to be as a complementary tool which can serve to highlight interdependencies between contributory justification factors

The evaluation of E-business related technologies in the Railway Industry

For the purposes of this paper, e-business is defined as: "the performance, automisation and organisation of transactions, or chains of them, and the gathering and publishing of data, electronically over a communication protocol" Little research has been conducted either into how e-business technology can be successfully evaluated, or into the associated costs and benefits specifically related to the transportation and railway industries. Based upon a review of the current literature and a series of interviews held with railway operators, track managers and transportation customers from the Australian Fortune 100, the paper puts forward a framework for the evaluation of e-business investments within the railway industry. The research reported here is aimed at developing a flexible interface that enables the decision maker to assess and evaluate a wide variety of complex interacting variables. The proposed approach uses a variety of evaluation methods, as opposed to searching for a single "best" approach. Additionally, an attempt is being made to include the complex interaction between the implementation of the new technology and the changing organisational setting. A model is proposed using fuzzy logic to handle incomplete and uncertain knowledge; as well as to combine criteria within a conceptual model from which "real-worth" evaluations can be performed. This model provides a systematic approach to guide the decision maker in the deployment of e-business and emerging technologies in the industry. After discussing the main findings from a literature review on the use of evaluation frameworks in IT related projects, the paper deals with the proposed framework in detail. The use of empirical data, which was obtained transportation customers to help define the main framework factors, is also discussed. Finally, the paper summarises the main implications for rail freight of customers’s perceptions and stated needs in the e-business domain

Exploration and mining evaluation system and price prediction of uranium resources

Purpose. The paper introduces the development of the Uranium Resources Technical and Economic Evaluation Expert System (URTEEES) from the viewpoint of requirement analysis, system design, functional structure and application etc. Methods. The system is based on C/B/S mixed mode and applies ASP.NET technology with .Net Framework being selected as the development platform as well as the uranium resources database providing data support at the bottom layer. The paper also proves the efficiency of the system in the context of certain case studies. Findings. Since the system can performs the functions of scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, shareholder’s returns analysis, horizontal comparison of different projects, it can improve the ability of project senior decision-makers for rapid response to the rivals and meet the demand of pricing negotiations. Moreover, the system demonstrates its efficiency in the context of case studies as the system incorporates a number of advanced methods, e.g. the Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO) Back Propagation (BP) QPSO-BP model which can improve the generalization ability of BP network to predict the uranium price. Originality. Technical and economic evaluation model can be set up by users independently according to the current stage of a project (mainly, these are exploration stage, development stage and production stage) as well as according to the selected mining method (e.g. underground mining, surface mining, or in-situ leaching mining). Then, the technical and economic evaluation parameters can be generated. By means of inputting the value of each parameter in a simple and convenient way, the evaluation results can be calculated directly and shown in the form of diagrams; moreover, feasibility evaluation report can be generated automatically, making the process of technical and economic evaluation accurate and efficient. Practical implications. URTEEES performs the functions of decision-making analysis, metal resources database management, data management, comprehensive query etc. The system is a good basis for further development of other expert systems.Мета. Розробка експертно-аналітичної системи техніко-економічного оцінювання запасів урану з точки зору аналізу вимог, системи проектування, функціональної структури і напрямів застосування. Методика. Проектна система повинна включати два основні блоки. Перший – існуючі дані щодо оцінки ресурсів урану для отримання відповідних параметрів, які можуть бути використані для створення моделей оцінки й забезпечення основи для їх порівняння при оцінці нового проекту. Другий – допоміжна інформація, така як закони і правила, культурна інформація, яка насправді є накопиченням даних проекту і досвіду. Пропонована система заснована на використанні комбінованого режиму C/B/S; при цьому система використовує технологію ASP.NET с Nеt Framework, обрану в якості платформи розробки, а також базу даних по запасах урану, що забезпечує інформаційну підтримку на нижньому рівні. Результати. Розроблена нова система URTEEES виконує функції імовірнісного аналізу, аналізу чутливості, аналізу прибутковості для акціонерів, а також горизонтальне порівняння різних проектів, отже, може поліпшити результативність прийняття рішень керівниками проекту для швидкого реагування на дії конкурентів, крім того, дана система відповідає вимогам процесу ціноутворення. Реалізація проектної системи показує високу ефективність, оскільки включає в себе безліч методів з поліпшеними характеристиками, наприклад, модель QPSO-BP, яка удосконалила узагальнюючі можливості нейронної мережі ВР з метою оптимізації та ефективного прогнозування ціни на уран. Наукова новизна. В системі розроблена модель техніко-економічного оцінювання в залежності від стадійності реалізації проекту (в основному, це стадія геологорозвідувальних робіт, стадія розробки родовища і стадія промислового видобутку), а також способу ведення гірничих робіт (наприклад, підземні гірничі роботи, відкриті гірничі роботи або ж роботи, пов’язані з підземним вилуговуванням), а результати оцінювання можна безпосередньо підрахувати і представити наочно у вигляді діаграм. Крім того, представляється можливим автоматично сформувати техніко-економічне обґрунтування, що дозволяє зробити процес техніко-економічного оцінювання точним і ефективним. Практична значимість. Система URTEEES дозволяє виконувати функції аналізу процесу прийняття рішень, управління базою даних запасів металів, управління даними, універсальної пошукової системи в гірничодобувній промисловості.Цель. Разработка экспертно-аналитической системы технико-экономического оценивания запасов урана с точки зрения анализа требований, системы проектирования, функциональной структуры и применения. Методика. Проектная система должна включать два основных блока. Первый – существующие данные об оценке ресурсов урана для получения соответствующих параметров, которые могут быть использованы для создания моделей оценки и обеспечения основы для их сравнения при оценке нового проекта. Второй – вспомогательная информация, такая как законы и правила, культурная информация, которая на самом деле является накоплением данных проекта и опыта. Предлагаемая система основана на использовании комбинированного режима C/B/S; при этом система использует технологию ASP.NET с Net Framework, выбранную в качестве платформы разработки, а также базу данных по запасам урана, что обеспечивает информационную поддержку на нижнем уровне. Результаты. Разработанная система выполняет функции вероятностного анализа, анализа чувствительности, анализа доходности для акционеров, а также горизонтальное сравнение различных проектов, следовательно, может улучшить результативность принятия решений руководителями проекта для быстрого реагирования на действия конкурентов; кроме того, данная система соответствует требованиям процесса ценообразования. Реализация проектной системы показывает высокую эффективность, поскольку включает в себя множество методов с улучшенными характеристиками, например, модель QPSO-BP, которая усовершенствовала обобщающие возможности нейронной сети BP с целью оптимизации и эффективного прогнозирования цены на уран. Научная новизна. В системе разработана модель технико-экономического оценивания в зависимости от стадийности реализации проекта (в основном, это стадия геологоразведочных работ, стадия разработки месторождения и стадия промышленной добычи), а также способа ведения горных работ (например, подземные горные работы, открытые горные работы или же работы, связанные с подземным выщелачиванием), а результаты оценивания можно непосредственно подсчитать и представить наглядно в виде диаграмм. Кроме того, представляется возможным автоматически сформировать технико-экономическое обоснование, что позволяет сделать процесс технико-экономического оценивания точным и эффективным. Практическая значимость. Система URTEEES позволяет выполнять функции анализа процесса принятия решений, управления базой данных запасов металлов, управления данными, универсальной поисковой системы в горнодобывающей промышленности.This research project is made possible through the financial support from National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51374242, No.51404305 and No.51504286)

Organizational energy: A behavioral analysis of human and organizational factors in manufacturing

This paper seeks to explore the behavior and embodied energy involved in the decision-making of information technology/information systems (IT/IS) investments using a case within a small- to medium-sized manufacturing firm. By analyzing decision making within a given case context, this paper describes the nature of the investment through the lens of behavioral economics, causality, input-output (IO) equilibrium, and the general notion of depletion of executive energy function. To explore the interplay between these elements, the authors structure the case context via a morphological field in order to construct a fuzzy cognitive map of decision-making relationships relating to the multidimensional and nonquantifiable problems of IT/IS investment evaluation. Noting the significance of inputs and outputs relating to the investment decision within the case, the authors assess these cognitive interrelationships through the lens of the Leontief IO energy equilibrium model. Subsequently, the authors suggest, through an embodied energy audit, that all such management decisions are susceptible to decision fatigue (so-called 'ego depletion'). The findings of this paper highlight pertinent cognitive and IO paths of the investment decision-making process that will allow others making similar types of investments to learn from and draw parallels from such processes

Organic Farming in Europe by 2010: Scenarios for the future

How will organic farming in Europe evolve by the year 2010? The answer provides a basis for the development of different policy options and for anticipating the future relative competitiveness of organic and conventional farming. The authors tackle the question using an innovative approach based on scenario analysis, offering the reader a range of scenarios that encompass the main possible evolutions of the organic farming sector. This book constitutes an innovative and reliable decision-supporting tool for policy makers, farmers and the private sector. Researchers and students operating in the field of agricultural economics will also benefit from the methodological approach adopted for the scenario analysis

Sustainable R&D portfolio assessment.

Research and development portfolio management is traditionally technologically and financially dominated, with little or no attention to the sustainable focus, which represents the triple bottom line: not only financial (and technical) issues but also human and environmental values. This is mainly due to the lack of quantified and reliable data on the human aspects of product/service development: usability, ecology, ethics, product experience, perceived quality etc. Even if these data are available, then consistent decision support tools are not ready available. Based on the findings from an industry review, we developed a DEA model that permits to support strategic R&D portfolio management. We underscore the usability of this approach with real life examples from two different industries: consumables and materials manufacturing (polymers).R&D portfolio management; Data envelopment analysis; Sustainable R&D;

Integration of decision support systems to improve decision support performance

Decision support system (DSS) is a well-established research and development area. Traditional isolated, stand-alone DSS has been recently facing new challenges. In order to improve the performance of DSS to meet the challenges, research has been actively carried out to develop integrated decision support systems (IDSS). This paper reviews the current research efforts with regard to the development of IDSS. The focus of the paper is on the integration aspect for IDSS through multiple perspectives, and the technologies that support this integration. More than 100 papers and software systems are discussed. Current research efforts and the development status of IDSS are explained, compared and classified. In addition, future trends and challenges in integration are outlined. The paper concludes that by addressing integration, better support will be provided to decision makers, with the expectation of both better decisions and improved decision making processes

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version